Borellian.

I\'m on Mystik Dan heavily in the Derby. I like the inside draw and I don\'t think the Southwest figure was because of the slop. I have futures on Track Phantom and Epic Ride but not really confident in those tickets. I can\'t discount the most talented horse in the field so I singled Fierceness on top of my exotics but don\'t have him anywhere underneath. He either wins by daylight or doesn\'t hit the board.

 Good luck to all!

So knowing that only two horses have won the Derby coming off a number slower than a 3 ½ in this century, all of the LA Derby and Wood runners, the SA, Jeff Ruby and TB Derby winners are off the top of my tickets.

I\'m curious if anyone knows what that stat is for runners hitting the board over the last couple of decades. How slow is too slow?

Wait, this isn\'t his first foray into the doping scene, is it? I seem to recall one or two or a dozen other stories like this (Merneith, Gamine and the aptly-named Charlatan come to mind.) Each one taking place after he had already been caught before. I believe there is ample evidence that he is, in fact, stupid. Criminals aren\'t known for their immense ability to stop themselves from committing crimes, especially when they repeatedly get away with it.

I can\'t believe anyone would buy the \"he isn\'t stupid\" defense. Yes, he is. He\'s cheated even after being caught cheating. That sounds pretty stupid to me.

From a Bloodhorse article last year about the new gate:

\"The horse breaking from the inside post will break farther away from the rail this year, as will the horse on the far outside relative to the outer rail, Jordan said. This is due to the length of the gate being shorter than the two other gates combined while also considering the gap between the two.

The interior of the stalls are an inch and a half wider than the track\'s usual gate, Jordan said, though the dividers between the stalls are narrower.

\"So rather than coming out like from the 1 (post), where it used to be, you\'re almost coming out of the 3 path,\" he said. \"So instead of coming out of the 20, the way it used to be, you\'re almost down to like the 18 or the 17.\"

Good to see some life coming back to the board with a more normal triple crown trail ahead this year. I came across this stat I saved from Jerry in my old research and wondered if anyone has info to fill in the more recent years. It deals with horses that have run a negative figure at any time in their life leading up to the Derby and where they finish. Seems pretty important this year since I think there\'s only one horse who has that distinction. Keep up the great work!

[Re: Worst Derby ever - New Rules For the Derby? (360 Views)
Posted by: jerry (IP Logged)
Date: May 03, 2015 12:12AM

Going back 13 years it\'s 39 negs, 8 in the money with a couple of close 4ths. A few paired their top neg number but still missed the board. Most X\'d.]

To your point about no one else having 2 9f preps. Stanford, Frosted and Mr. Z all have run twice at that distance (also Mubtaahij, as you noted already).

I look at Frosted\'s chart and the only issue I see is the one you raise about the surgery not lasting more than one race. If it holds, I see him being a big contender at a very big price.

Danzig Moon. Should be no problem getting the distance. Wasn\'t any match for Carpe Diem but did go from 3 1/2 back at the 1/8 pole to beaten by 3 so has the staying power.

No Storm Cat descendant has ever won the Derby. Many have run second (Menifee, Lion Heart, Bluegrass Cat, Ice Box, Bodemeister and, most recently, Commanding Curve).

Storm Cat had 8 runners last year and 3 of them finished in the last four spots.

Six horses in the 2013 Derby were Storm Cat\'s and four held down the last four positions.

Eight more ran in 2012 and five wound up in the bottom half of the field.

Another eight ran in 2011 and all failed, including the two favorites.

Horses with Storm Cat in their pedigrees have run last each of the last four runnings.

That said, I would not toss out a talented descendant of SC just based on this. I might, however toss out a talented horse who has never ran in a race with more than 9 horses in it, like American Pharaoh. No horse in the last 35 years has won without facing 9 or more opponents. Something to be said for at least some experience in a larger field.

As for Storm Cat horses that are candidates for the bottom rung this year: Stanford and El Kabeir are my guesses.

He owns 5% of Goldencents. Most likely the tail.

Per Churchill Downs PR on Twitter: Black Onyx has scratched from the Derby. Post 1 will be left open.

high roller Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Since I started this thread - I will add my
> comments - those who play this game are sucker\'s
> and have been for years - between the take-out and
> the cheating that goes on - over the long-term you
> cannot beat the game unless you get lucky and hit
> a very big exotic that you don\'t give back.

Newsflash: Gambling not normally a sound investment strategy.

Prior to the Wood the consensus opinion was that Verrazano was a FREAK. So what changed? The speed in his race blows it out of the gate & everyone is left to jog around the track. Even with a paceless race he still holds on & wins.

Everyone thinks there may not be much pace in the Derby this year. I\'m sorry but there is always an honest pace in the Derby. With 20 horses trying to get a decent spot on the first turn there won\'t be many pulling back. So Verrazano will have a good pace to attack.

Whether Verrazano was fully cranked for the Wood, only a select few people in that crew know but you have to ask, why would he have been at his best? He was in the Derby easily so only needed a nice trip there. I don\'t think we\'ve seen the best from him yet.

The Pletcher question is my biggest/only concern with Verrazano.

I can\'t watch the replay of the Withers & agree with this sentiment. The horse was on the rail & buried the entire time, tried to get going a couple of times, was last hitting the top of the stretch and still ended up moving in & out of horses to get up at the wire. For me I think it\'s the race that taught Revolutionary how he needs to run to win the Derby.

Also, the horse has had gate issues (both his own & his neighbors\') so if he can break clean he may be a bit more towards the front rather than always coming from the clouds. It\'s a 3-horse race imo & Revolutionary is one of the three.