My first trip to The Kentucky derby was an eventful one. Had some great scores on the oaks card (thanks to the sheets!) only to walk out of the track and find out my rental car got towed. Note to self- ask the guy who parks your car if he is the property owner if he looks suspicious.

Derby day was a little rough until I got out on second to last race with Rosario(who has become my favorite pilot). Great overall experience! My advice to anyone who is thinking of making the trip is to purchase seats(either clubhouse or third level grandstand) it is worth every penny.

I have been using the sheets for a few years and will always use TG products.
Did anyone else have a difficult time using the race shapes on derby day? I was off all day on reading the shapes and it played a big role in my failures for most of the card (bode, shak, little mike) Would appreciate any insight.

Agree, Great race.

My good friends had a dog in the fight ( or should I say kitten). If spooky holds on would have walked with a record score. She was so game though. Hope she stays sound for Saratoga and runs in the Alabama.

I am small time player who loves the game and who really values the resources that this site provides. Most of you have more handicapping ability in your pinky than I have all together but I grew up going to the saratoga race course every day and look forward to this every year. So here is my opinion on the race:

This is a great opportunity to play against AK based on all the variables that we all know. And I will be taking a stand against AK based on those variables,however, I am not confident that this horse will bounce back to a 3 or 4. I feel that barring anything unusual, he is the most likely winner and most likely to pair the 0. Part of me hopes he does pair the 0 and wins by 2-3 lengths so I can load up against him come belmont day. But... I will be playing against him tomorrow just in case.

MMM will be my key. I had made up my mind on this the week after the derby  seeing his TG # and hearing that he was full of himself and focused in his works. I don\'t have a ton of confidence that the jock will work out the trip but this horse tries every time and doesn\'t have to move back of the derby effort.He looks like the most likely to run a winning number.

DC... I liked this horse more before I herd he was knocked out from his last effort. The other negative is seeing him pair up and jump forward 3 points. I feel that the best to expect now is a pair up. will still be using underneath.

Sway away- tough read for me based on the information that this horse is training so well. His sheet is troubling to me. I am seeing a pattern of issues that leave me feeling this horse has the ability but not the head to put it together in a big race. He worries me, looks dangerous if he can put it together, but I feel that he will have the same trouble in a big field. underneath.

Shak- toss. will take my chances that the derby took just enough punch out of him.

Dialed in- I am cautious because of zito but I didn\'t like him in the derby and don\'t like him off short rest. toss

MI- reluctant toss. hoping he runs somewhere between his top and his derby fig

Flashpoint - Don\'t think he wants the distance but will use underneath. Lightly raced, big fig to run back to

Congie- here we go again with the surface change. Horse has never moved back in six starts, had two months off going into the bluegrass and is now on his second race of a cycle. Looks eligible for a forward move to me. Have to use underneath at a big price

NA-toss

Astrology- good looking line coming in, looks eligible for a forward move. underneath

Mr. Commons - looks like he could be one of those horses that strings together 3 pairs and then surges ahead 4 points. Based on that I am using underneath

Key - MMM

Tier 1 - Astrology , Sway away , Flashpoint

Tier 2 - Dance city, King Congie, Mr. Commons

First I would like to say thank you to everyone for all this great information and insight on the greatest 2 minutes in sports.

I completely agree sek. I like the 58% chance of running a winning number vs. needing to pick the one or two horses in this stampede that will run a new top ( which doesn\'t even guarantee that the connections get a pay check depending on the pp.)

Disappointed about arch\'s draw just like everyone else. To me, his sheet is the most consistent of this bunch with that of past winners and even more of a plus he\'s been lights out in the am.

POF looks like a definite use to me based on pp 7. He figures to stay out of trouble and possibly pair up or improve slightly.

I don\'t want to hop on the band wagon with calvin but I keep looking at TTA sheet and can\'t get past the 61% chance of pairing up or improving. Combine that with the possible ground save from pp 3. Just looking at the numbers it looks as though he is on the outside looking in, but with calvin...... why not him?

thanks frank, i will check it out

I appreciate any thoughts on soldat headed into the derby. At first glance I was not very optimistic about this horses chances after his non effort in the FLA derby. After a closer look, I am struggling with whether his effort was an inevitable X ( as he was cycling toward a 0-2-x) or if it was a result of not getting the lead he is accustomed to. If it was a result of his pattern, can we expect him to run back to a 0? If that is the case, we would seem to have a live one on our hands. Although I have yet to see a horse in the archives that won the derby going in on a 0-2-x. Would love to hear any thoughts on one of many difficult reads in this years race.

Thanks miff,
             I did not know that stat on 7 weeks rest. I will consider.

I am having trouble quantifying the lost shoe in  the LA Derby in terms of his TG number. Up until this point he had the look of a stalker type that took first crack at the speed and finished well.Good 2yr old top and moving in  the right direction. Liked the way he put away santiva in the stretch run. Even though he moved forward on his TG number in the LA derby from the previous two, I am a little concerned about the stretch run in this race. He looked as though he would run by POF twice and flattened out. Could this be a result of the lost shoe? Would love to hear thoughts on the dynamics of that race and weather this horse will appreciate 1m 1/4. I appreciate your feedback....

Need some help with the La Derby, did MMM throw a shoe? and if so, what effect would that have on the stretch run. Appreciate any feedback.

I am very interested in what factor post position played in these figures.

Here are the percentages going back to 2000 on New Top, pair, off, x\'s without taking into consideration post position, track condition, prep numbers, ect....

2010 - New Top 15% , pair 0%, off 15%, x\'s 70%

2009 - New Top 11% , pair 0%, off 21%, x\'s 68%

2008 - New Top 11%, pair 11%, off 16%, x\'s 62%

2007 - New Top 20%, pair 20%, off 25%, x\'s 35%

2006-  New top 5%, pair 15%, off 20%, x\'s 60%

2005 - New Top 10%, pair 15%, off 0%, x\'s 75%

2004 - New Top 5%, pair 5%, off 26%, x\'s 64%

2003 - New Top 6%, pair 25%, off 25%, x\'s 44%

2002 - New Top 12%, pair 18%, off 18%, x\'s 52%

2001 - New Top 6%, pair 24%, off 6%, x\'s 64%

2000 - New Top 24%, pair 6%, off 6%, x\'s 64%

Averages -  New Top 12.5% , pair 13.9% , off 17.8% , x\'s 65.8%