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Messages - Bet Twice

#1
Ask the Experts / Re: EVERYBODY KNOWS...
May 08, 2022, 07:09:52 PM
I think people are reading too much into this.
Trainer has no history of jump ups, and highly unlikely to try something new at one of the most scrutinized events of the year.
I would think "super trainers" unlikely to be using in preps given the scrutiny around the sport recently.  Not an expert, so it's possible, but would think people are pretty fearful and on best behavior.
Horse ran a 9 last year on dirt and didn't move forward on poly.  Maybe he didn't like the poly and his preps would have been better on the dirt.  Pattern not horrible, reasonable to expect a forward move.  Fast pace, great ride, and he got faster from 2 to 3.
Not suggesting I bet him, because I didn't, but there doesn't need to be some conspiratorial explanation for him to win.
I'll be interested to see the numbers coming out of the race.
#2
Ask the Experts / Re: Mattress Mac
May 08, 2022, 06:34:11 PM
Think of Mac's betting as a marketing expense.  He presumably gets a lot of business offering this money back deal, and hedges his exposure by betting the favorite.  While it probably benefits him if the favorite wins, in terms of generating additional interest in the promo next year, I think it's a wash financially, at least in the short term.  So, in other words, not really a bad beat, although I'm sure it would be fun to cash a ticket that size.
#3
There is a new Velvet Underground documentary on Apple TV that is worth checking out if you are a fan.
#4
Ask the Experts / Re: Breeders Cup Post Mortem
November 10, 2021, 07:07:56 PM
Point taken, but my underlying point was the horse was a pretty clear standout from a TG perspective.  While there may or may not be PEDs involved, this race doesn't really standout as a good example.
#5
Ask the Experts / Re: Breeders Cup Post Mortem
November 10, 2021, 09:17:04 AM
The horse with the fastest figures, who was given a relatively easy lead.....was that really a surprise?
#6
Ask the Experts / Re: Max Player
October 30, 2021, 11:14:20 AM
I'd be surprised to see him improve, given he's already improved by ~6 points from 3 to 4.  That said, it's a nice pattern and a pair up probably puts him in the exotics, depending on trip.  I probably won't use him on top, but think he could get a piece.
#7
Ask the Experts / Re: 2021 BC Pre-Entries Available Now
October 29, 2021, 06:43:57 PM
As you have done in prior years, can you please provide the full card once drawn to those buying the pre-entry package?  It makes it much easier to handicap on a tablet using one file in PP order.
#8
Ask the Experts / Redboard room - Hollywood Talent
September 27, 2021, 08:25:59 AM
I didn’t bet the card, but took a look at the race after the fact, with the 108-1 winner.  Certainly seems like he could have been used with the back 3’s and at the weights.  Congrats to anyone who used him.
#9
Ask the Experts / Re: Mejia a fan of Penn & Teller ?
September 22, 2021, 07:48:20 PM
Sorry to offend your sensibilities, but trainers have literally gotten away with murder and gotten nothing.  A presumably poor person gets his career taken away for a first offense.  Im sure the owner/trainer knew nothing!  As far as animal abuse, it’s funny what we consider abuse and what we don’t.  I agree he should be punished but will stand by 10+ years being harsh.  Apologies for having some empathy for someone who made a poor choice.
#10
Ask the Experts / Re: Mejia a fan of Penn & Teller ?
September 20, 2021, 08:45:27 PM
Fair.  It just seems harsh to take away someone’s livelihood for 10+ years, but I guess that would be the case with any felony, at least to some extent.  I guess the mental disconnect for me is an action occurring during a sport doesn’t typically carry those types of ramifications.  See Brady/Belichick.
#11
Ask the Experts / Re: Mejia a fan of Penn & Teller ?
September 18, 2021, 09:48:06 PM
I agree that cheaters need to be removed from the game, but if this is the first offense, 10 years with a request for a lifetime ban seems a bit harsh.   It would seem a year would send the appropriate message.
#12
Boom!  Killed the 9th race.  Great job, Vic!
#13
Ask the Experts / Re: Saratoga Lodging
July 25, 2021, 10:47:20 AM
If price is a concern, you can go further south to Latham or Wold Road in Colonie, which is very close to ALB airport.  All major chains have properties, and is roughly 30 minutes to the track.
#14
Ask the Experts / Re: Random thoughts on Haskell
July 20, 2021, 06:23:24 PM
Mr.  Hyde is often more entertaining.  Good to see you posting over here Gary, now if only you would give this product a try.
#15
Ask the Experts / Re: Random thoughts on Haskell
July 19, 2021, 07:28:53 PM
I believe the question was whether Mickeycharles was a reference to Mickey Mantle;  Charles being the Mick’s middle name.  The Mick apparently has a bit of OCD, which I can relate to.