I did that before last year\'s Derby (1998-2013), just added in the 2014 figs.

1st: -0.04 avg; 2.25 Std dev
2nd:  1.28 avg; 1.30 Std dev
3rd:  2.56 avg; 1.47 Std dev
4th:  2.76 avg; 1.63 Std dev

Only 3 winners have run higher than a 1.5
Only 3 2nd place runners have run higher than a 2.5
Only 3 3rd place runners have run higher than a 2.5
8 4th place finishers have run higher than a 2.5; 6 of them ran higher than a 3

Hope this helps.

Good point, thanks

If you have a 5yo that\'s 11/19 lifetime with 16 ITM finishes, what would cause you to geld him before a $1M G1 race?

My amateur inference is that they are all in to cash the biggest check of his racing career - 1st time Lasix, gets a weight break from his last 5, his race 2 back he went to his knees at the break then inhaled the field in a breath.  Visually impressive, thought the video quality was most certainly not.  

He has fired off a layoff before. If he gets move ups from the weight break, Lasix, and no more apples in the orchard, that puts him awfully close doesn\'t it?

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> I haven\'t looked at this closely (a little busy),
> but I\'m having trouble understanding how the
> original reported results by finish (only 6% of
> horses with no works hitting super, 25% of those
> with works doing it) has not much correlation with
> how they run in figure terms. Seems to me for that
> to be true horses working at CD would have to
> start out faster than the other group.


The Non-CD Work group from 2007-2013 had an average top of 2.30 (std dev 1.88) coming in.  Any idea how that compares with those that had a work over the track over that same timeframe?

Just took a quick look back to 2007, 31 runners total.  

Have to go back to Tiago in \'07 to find even a small new Top among the Non-CD work group, moving forward 1.75pts. Master of Hounds (0.5) and Any Given Saturday (0.25) the only other two to move forward at all.  I\'ll Have Another (0), Nobiz Like Shobiz (-0.5), Lines of Battle (-0.75), Circular Quay (-0.75) and Cowboy Cal (-1) are the other pair ups.

That\'s 1 small Top and 7 pair ups out of 31 runners.  Only two - Dialed In and Great Hunter - ran Off, while the remaining 21 X\'d by an average of 13.5 points off their top.  

Again there is the issue of sample size.  I tell the basketball coaches I work with that findings from a small sample will not be conclusive, but they do fine tune the lens and give you something specific to look for in the film room.

Much appreciated guys...happy to finally contribute something after sponging up knowledge here for years.  

Sample size notwithstanding, the combined question marks are hard to ignore.

Did a quick scrub of the data, found a couple 3.5pt Offs I had mistakenly noted as Xs.  Invite others to point out any other errors you find.  

Derby Performance by # of Starts

Going back further with it tonight, will post what I come up with.

That stat caught my eye too. Figured a horse has to start a fair amount to amass those earnings, so started looking at performance as a function of career starts.  Since 2005, 13 horses with 10 or more career starts have entered the gate, with 11 running X\'s, one Off and one Top.  Since 2009, it is 6 X\'s out of 6 runners.  

Street Sense only had 7 starts before the Derby.