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Messages - SteveB

#1
Ask the Experts / Re: On a positive note?
May 05, 2019, 10:28:13 AM
Master Fencer and Maximum Security should have close to the same figure. He ran 34 feet farther (according to TRAKUS) than MS which is maybe just over the 4 lengths he lost by.

Game Winner ran 103 feet (about 13 lengths) farther than MS and lost by 3 3/4 lengths. Game Winner should get a figure that equates to being about 9 lengths faster at 1 1/4 miles than Maximum Security.

Country House ran 51 feet further than Maximum Security.

It was predictable that Maximum Security would save ground.

4 horses from the inside 5 posts and also Code of Honor actually had better ground saving trips than Maximum Security. Maybe the award for best ride in the Derby this year should go to John Velazquez, especially since there were 9 horses within about 5 lengths at the finish.
#2
Ask the Experts / Holy Ghost
May 05, 2018, 03:04:27 PM
Holy Ghost is a wagering theory that is used by numerologists. The suggestion is that good things happen in threes (reference to the Biblical Trinity of the Father, Son and Holy Ghost). Players of the Holy Ghost theory believe that when a certain jockey, saddle cloth number, post position, trainer, etc., scores two wins, then it follows that there will be a third success, since good luck tends to run in groups of threes.

If Vino Rosso wins for John Velazquez it will be 3 holy ghost jockeys in a row and all at good prices.

Old time track announcer Dave Johnson always used to follow this theory for jockeys.
#3
Ask the Experts / Re: Breeders Cup 2018
November 06, 2017, 10:50:24 AM
At your old Kentucky home Churchill Downs November 2nd and 3rd next year.
#4
Ask the Experts / BC Mile Ground Loss
November 05, 2017, 07:59:02 AM
Checked on Trakus and World Approval was about average for ground loss in the field. The 2nd horse Lancaster Bomber ran 38 feet less than World Approval, but the 3rd horse Blackjackcat ran 46 feet farther than World Approval while being hung wide on both turns. Be interesting to see TG numbers when they are posted.

Checking after the race I saw Blackjackcat ran a 2 which was 2 point lifetime top his 2nd race back at Del Mar. He wasn\'t on my radar before the race and it seems he could have won with a decent trip even from the 13 post.
#5
I saw somewhere that Castellano is riding West Coast.
#6
Ask the Experts / Re: Thoro-Pattern
October 29, 2017, 02:23:20 PM
If I understand the Thoro-Pattern line correctly, Bolt D\'Oro has a pattern that is based on only 4 comparable patterns in the TG database of which one would have been a new top and one would have been a paired top. In this case the sample size is too small to provide results with any confidence. Is that correct?
#7
Ask the Experts / Re: Derby winners on wet tracks
May 07, 2017, 06:44:46 PM
I think Pletcher\'s only starter in the last 5 runnings of the Preakness was Stradivari last year. He doesn\'t usually care to run his derby horses back in the Preakness. This year he may have Malagacy in addition to the derby winner.
#8
Ask the Experts / Re: Free Contest
May 06, 2017, 02:14:49 PM
3,4, 8, 12
#9
Ask the Experts / Re: Oaks
May 05, 2017, 05:02:35 PM
Looked at the chart for the race and the comment for Lockdown is \"nightmarish go - game\". First time I\'ve seen nightmarish in the short chart comment. Was it that bad?
#10
Ask the Experts / Re: Thunder Snow
April 26, 2017, 09:38:48 AM
It appears that Thunder Snow will arrive at Churchill Downs on Sunday flying from Dubai to Cincy and vanning in to Churchill Downs. He supposedly is definite to run in the Derby from what I saw on Twitter.
#11
Ask the Experts / Re: Research Question
April 13, 2017, 02:54:13 PM
Brokers Tip\'s only win in his career came in the 1933 Kentucky Derby when his jockey and the jockey on Head Play were fighting each other down the stretch.
#12
Ask the Experts / Re: A little help
March 01, 2017, 08:42:48 PM
I copied this from today\'s San Diego Union.

Ticket information
Breeders' Cup officials
made it a point of emphasis
Tuesday: Fans who want
to attend the event on Nov.
3 and 4 at Del Mar will
have to buy tickets in
advance. There will be no
walk-up purchases.
Tickets go on sale to the
public beginning at 9 a.m.
PST Monday. They can be
purchased online at breederscup.
com/tickets or by
calling the ticket office at
877-849-4287. There is a
presale for which fans can
sign up at breederscup.
com/2017.
Total attendance will be
capped at 37,500 each day.
Single-day tickets range
from $35 to $375 on Nov. 3
and $50 to $500 on Nov. 4.
Two-day packages range
from $85 to $1,875.
#13
Ask the Experts / Re: Call him English Mike
November 06, 2016, 07:47:54 AM
From today\'s San Diego Union newspaper.

\"Shortly after the Smith engineered upset was complete, Team Arrogate was asked about whether the newly minted star would compete next year. Garrett O'Rourke, racing manager for Lexington's Juddmonte Farms, said all signs leaned that direction.\"

O'Rourke: "That's the good news. The bad news is we're going to bring him to
England."

Smith: "I'll go to England. Call me English Mike."
#14
Ask the Experts / Om
November 05, 2016, 07:33:44 PM
The charts show Om losing by a nose. I was surprised as it looked like more than that watching it. Stevens lost the whip, but Om was still full out to the wire.
#15
Ask the Experts / Re: Classic
November 05, 2016, 06:40:59 PM
I agree with Patrick. Had Chrome won, it would have been one of the greatest years ever for a horse over 3 years old.