The topical route angle by Baffert\'s team is a brilliant ploy. It\'s near impossible to prove how much of the betamethasone was absorbed topically. Probably about 0% of it but no true way to prove it. They could ask him to reapply the topical but then when it shows nothing in the blood they can blame the amount of hair or skin condition at time of administering. It\'s all total bull shit.

Did anyone else think he run Saturday look a little flat? I’ve doubted her before and paid for it.

Silver I get the Funny Cide comparison and I really do like Improbable but I think we all know why Funny Cide turned the tide on Empire Maker. The same reason why I will bet Omaha over Improbable. Tactical Speed. Empire Maker didn\'t have it and Funny Cide earned a magnificent trip. Empire ran the better figure but it did not matter. I could see a similar outcome from the Wood 2003. An exacta out of the arkansas derby. Good luck

Chas you are wasting your time man. Everyone has the right to an opinion and people on here aren\'t going to change theirs. Good luck

So 11/36 bounced 3 points or less. 3/36 won the derby. 60% of those probably had no shot in the first place. You mention that Big brown ran a 1 so he was already fast. Omaha ran a 2. Omaha didn’t run on dirt for his first three races so we don’t really have accurate numbers for him. If he bounces to a 0 with his tactical running style he could still beat this group. Has a hall of fame trainer. I think you are wasting your time with these stats. If you want stats TGJB has stats. Mandella has plenty of horses with similar patterns and how do they typically runs? TOPS

I believe collected is Classic bound or Clark. No mile

johnny I also have been wondering about this along with the types of bets that will be allowed. On Churchill downs website https://www.churchilldowns.com/racing-wagering/toteboard/post-times they are showing a late pick 5. I don\'t believe there has ever been a late pick 5 at BC?

Tavasco the question is which process is more likely to expedite the process of getting sports gambling in Florida? In the hands of the Indians or in the hands of the people? I personally do not know the answer.

Does anyone believe Monomoy\'s stretch run could be due to her being on a dead rail for half the race? If you watch replay of most of the card they were stay 3-4 paths off rail and Geroux had Monomoy right on it. I was shaking my head as the race was running.

Moose any clue why horse didn\'t work for over a month after last? Or anyone know I should say?

johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> His third race was his last race as a two year
> old.
> How much of a form cycle is that?


Take it for what it\'s worth. He ran best third race of career. He improved second off bench and Chad has made every indication he is sitting on best. He comes from a daddy whose babies get better with age and he was already fast as a 2yo. He is tactical.

He said he needed a few more works but their objective is to win the derby .

\"I\'ve seen the same development and … that was the plan,\" Brown said. \"We rested him a bit after his 2-year-old year and brought him back trying to build toward his third race of the year being his best one. As a 2-year-old, his third race in his form cycle was his best one, and he (is) really thriving here at Keeneland.

\"Everyone wants to see the horse win every time. And if you\'re a champion horse in the first race back and you come up a little bit short, it disappoints everyone. I wanted him to win the race. But looking back now, (the Fountain of Youth) was an important building block to get here today. It\'s all been a progression.\"

I have also read that they purposely brought him back late. Brown said he knew that would not allow him much room for setbacks but it was by design. They wanted to give him ample time off after Breeders cup. The late start was due to design.

\'Chad Brown solid off layoffs so the Fountain of Youth blemish looms large.\'

I think there is enough documented info from Chad that he is treating Good Magic sightly different then some of his older horses off the bench. He firmly believes horse will be best third off bench and they are bringing him along. He was disappointed with his GP performance but I don\'t think we should be with the number he produced off the bench. He also took a nice step forward second off bench which proves Brown is tightening him up (a lot of brown\'s don\'t move forward much second off bench). As a thoro handicapper we should love his Bluegrass performance=Slow brisnet and Beyer which should keep the public off. Unlike some of the past horses the thoro has landed on(such as last year where I felt the horse was a better 1 turn horse) this horse is proven two turn winner with breeding from Curlin and Hard Spun. He has only improved slightly from last year (and curlins improve with age) and he has a perfect running style for the derby. I can see a top in derby and if the baffert horse doesn\'t get things his way Magic is very very logical.

I mean you said it yourself you are just way off on Magnum Moon. He is bet down at my 5dimes account +650. He was 8-1 before winning the Arkansas derby convincingly in Kentucky derby future pool 4 and he is 5-1 at the Wynn. I also think good magic and Bolt will be in the 8-10 to 1 range.

One must keep in mind another variable that looks past the 3 weeks rest specifically for Pletcher. How many races/starts has the horse ran prior to the Arkansas derby. It\'s easy to see Danza and Super saver ran well for pletcher but both had only two races as a 3 year old. I believe this is especially important since I almost always bet against pletcher horses running big numbers. I wouldn\'t expect Magnum Moon to move forward regardless of what his pattern may look like. Just not very Pletcher like.