Still learning TG and figure posting at least makes me put it in writing and make decisions

I got Southern Africa over Magna Graduate...then tough call between General Charley and Real Dandy but I wouldn\'t be worrying about 3rd and 4th place anyway so no biggie there

Admittedly Awesome Twist has good figs but I just have to go agaist the sprint-route and 2 turns and throw him out

well so much for that call...guess they both blew up like the other 3 did last year

as everyone on here is saying you have to laugh at this one as this had to be one of the worst run races ever

but at least i saw a $1.8 mil super-tri in my lifetime!

WIN bet on BR

Exacta Box on NC/HL/GG/AA in case BR and BA do blow up from this pattern

yes an insurance bet...they said no flaming here:)

Haven\'t posted in years (yes a lurker) but enjoyed all your commentary.

Just seeing if anyone wanted to put out their opinion BEFORE the race whether BR and Bandini would both do ok (basically pair up or real close to that), or just one of them will (why one and not the other?), or will both blow up (ala Castledale, The Cliffs Edge, and Friends Lake last year)?

I figure everyone will come out of the woodwork AFTER the race and say \'see i told you so\' when all is said and done.

So I\'ll go first (albeit Jerry and some of you already opined to this obviously via other threads)...I\'m thinking along the lines of Ghostzapper in the BCC and BOTH BR and Bandini will run close to their tops (albeit i think a -3 for BR will win and a -2 of Bandini will be right there).  I\'m thinking they made major jumps but unlike the 3 horses last year these are quality numbers and they will be like a gymnast and stick their landing.  (I know technically a -3 for BR might be a bounce but point is it is not a blow up to a 0 or a 3 or 5 or 10 or such...it\'s another solid neg fig)

One worthless opinion, but it\'s in the open:)

Would be interested in what others think about what these two will do based on this pattern coming into this race...

my order of running based on tg for the race is BR 1st, Bandini 2nd, then NC, HL, GG, and AA all possibly running the same figs....may not pay much but hey every pay out in the KD is good if you look back at history - even when the top 2 favorites hit the board.

as someone here says - may they all come home safely.  gorgeous weather out this way so it should be a great race.

all you TG folk win some money today!  it\'s good to see the positive posts on the board lately and less of the bashing of the competition finally:)

Gator Mann

Glad to hear the same complaint from others.  I did the same a year ago,  much to no avail.

I simply lurk from time to time in hopes of seeing useful posts to help me improve my use of TG.  I would love to post my amateur attempts at handicapping races using TG but the abundance of negative posts just keeps me away.  It would be invaluable to have others opine to my analysis - no better way to learn in my opinion.

I love TG, but despise the pettiness.  Maybe two Boards can be set up - one strictly for handicapping...either current races about to happen or general questions about things like 0-2-X, etc.  And then another Board for non-handicapping topics - let the Rag/TG feud be held there.

These Boards are obviously monitored so having two Boards to direct incoming messages to doesn\'t seem like a problem.  A thought anyway...

back to lurking and hoping to continue to learn more about TG.

g

Doesn\'t Scrimshaw have the same 0-2-X pattern also?  not that anyone has said otherwise...i was just checking that Peace Rules and Scrimshaw could both be in the 0-2-X pattern at this time.

Good luck with your bets,

George

good thread ....i thought that might be it but I didn\'t see it in the numbers for Funny Cide in the Wood so that confused me...of course the PPs don\'t show what happened between the calls.

anyway thanx for all for clarifying this.

interesting point about closers also.

george

ok i\'ll show my ignorance...i look at the horses you mention and can\'t figure out what a re-break is....appreciate someone taking a few seconds to explain it.

may everyone here cash in on the Derby:)

Just seeing if any other TG users were going to be at Calder for Kentucky Derby day.  A couple of us TG fans will be at the Turf Club for the day...studying TG and hoping to hit the Derby big:)

It\'s likely the 7th race in the BRISNET contest will be the ROTW here - it\'s the Lexington.  If not, there\'s lots of info on that race around DRF, etc.  It\'s the other 9 races in the contest that will be tough.

Good luck to everyone.  This should be fun.

George

A visit back to these boards revealed some great posts about individual races and people\'s analysis using TG....like some others i had stayed away due to the constant bickering about TG vs Rags, etc.

But as HP or someone said, people like me just need to post our analyses, questions, etc and the board will be full of such...so best I post.  Here goes my novice attempt at handicapping using TG...(obviously we are dealing with the Eddie Read as it\'s the ROTW).

Redattore being the defending champ of this race keeps calling out to me.  I see him running a 1 to 3.5 with a minor weight adjustment and no wide adj.

Sarafan seems consistent at 2-2.5...add 2 for wide - 1 each turn...I usually add weight at 118+ but ya could go 1/2 pt here for 117

Beat Hollow I see at 1.5 or an \'X\' - there\'s a chance of the 0-2-X pattern being developed here...sooner or later this horse has to bounce!  I\'d add 1.5 for weight and 1 for wide as he should have a good inside trip.

Got Night Patrol with a 4 plus several points for wide and thus not ITM.  No chance to Deploy Venture.  Casey Griffin has good numbers but has developed almost identically to 2 years ago and then he bounced big at Del Mar and had peaked before then like this year.  

It\'s a tough one...my heart says Sarafan-Beat Hollow-Redattore...but based on the numbers only, I\'d have to say Redattore-Beat Hollow-Sarafan.

Best of luck to all....as always, would appreciate other insights into this race and even into my analysis - I\'m learning TG and have no problem with helpful criticism.

Gator Mann

for Jerry or anyone familiar with this pattern that I\'ve heard about....does the timing of the races affect this?

e.g. if the layoffs are say 21 days, 21 days is this pattern more likely to occur than say 60 days, 30 days between the races?

appreciate your insights.

Gator Mann

As I\'m new to TG and playing catch-up, my apologies if this has been covered over the years.

Has anyone analyzed Beyer versus TG...i.e. set up a scale (like fahrenheit versus celsius)?  My quick analysis of some horses shows the following rough scale relationship (Beyer on left obviously...tg on right):

110+ = -3 to 3
100-109 = 0 to 5 (seen -1.5 though)
90-99 = 3 to 10
80-89 = 7 to 10 (limited data due to doing this quickly)

I would imagine one could simply pair up thousands of actual data sets and make the above ranges more accurate where each range represents say 2 or 3 standard deviations (obviously outliers will always exist).

Curious if this has been done.  Then I guess the question has to be asked, does this mean anything?  can it be used to handicap?  maybe you feel you can predict the next Beyer figure better than you can predict the next tg figure...

Appreciate your thoughts...also I got Beyer\'s latest book (about his speed numbers...) - will read it all, but if you have any specific pages/chapters that you believe are \'best\' please let me know.

George

Well I don\'t think my predictions will be earth shattering, but to be on the record...

I\'m going back and forth between Left Bank and Affirmed Success to win...I think overall Left Bank is better, but at a mile I think Affirmed Success might be better and if the track is muddy I would also pick AS over LB.  My only concern about AS is the age of 8 years...but if he\'s in great shape that might not be a concern.

Third horse I like is Burning Roma (don\'t see him winning)...maybe in the money.

Beyond that nothing else I see as a contender.  Some horses with flashes of speed, but nothing consistent that I see.  I\'m a little surprised at the number of horses who haven\'t even gone a mile.

Good luck to anyone betting on this one.

George

thanx Scott...not sure what I what I saw that made me think Turf...guess I shouldn\'t be posting at 6am:)

guess i\'ll go watch the Indy 500 and handicap the race and post back with my thoughts in a bit.  just as well get my thoughts out in the open so i can learn from others...

g