If you're right, they will find it in the post race testing- Baffert got nailed for picogram quantities remember.  That's one trillionth of a gram.

No- horse racing is a non-deterministic event.  We spend a lot of time on the data- trying to predict the future by studying the past.  But the game involves randomness and chaos too- that's why you get results like yesterday

Long ago I told myself to always include bets with the longest shot on the board.  Sadly, yesterday I didn't follow that principle...

I don't play as much as I used to, though I am planning to go to the Big Cap next weekend- that used to be a premium day of racing in the springtime.

The effect of the Saudi cup and the Dubai World Cup on the big races in the US is pretty profound. There would've been a lot of good talent showing up next weekend down in Arcadia.  Now the purse is down to 650K- why bother for that chump change?

The world of golf has had an incursion by the Saudis, fronted by Phil Mickelson. Unlike the world of horse racing, however, Mickelson got considerable blowback from his colleagues and sponsors about the possibility of a Saudi sponsored golf tour. In horse racing, crickets. Everybody flies to the Middle East to cash in, leaving a place like Santa Anita wanting for talent.

You can't just blame the state of California racing for this. The horsemen in the US only look at the $$$ available from the corrupt regime in the Middle East – remember they dismembered that guy in the embassy.  They're looking for legitimacy by trying to buy premium sports events, and horseracing is only too willing to cash their checks.  Disappointing that the top trainers in our country don't even think about these issues.

I guess this is just another stop along the way downhill for horse racing. The only thing that will be left will be mule races and maiden claimers at the state fair...

Both performed professionally, fully deserved their wins

Yet, they lacked the sizzle that we were hoping to see

In both cases there was amazing hype to build up the event, then the air came out of the balloon when the favorite won

Hope we all don\'t end up yawning if we have a triple crown winner this year!

Those are some great numbers you posted, thanks

It shows how difficult this game is! You have done really well, though the rebates make it possible to have a gain overall, even if you don\'t show a positive number at the end of the year

I\'m not a big  player, so no rebate help.  I just enjoy gambling on a horse race better than casino games

One other factor-taxes.  The way winnings are taxed makes it very difficult to end up ahead, even if you show good results.  The times I have had a juicy win come back to bite me at tax time.

A question- do you have to pay taxes on the rebates you receive?

His bombastic owner needs to thank New York City and head back to Topaz Lake- a godforsaken place if you have ever driven by it

The horse was a great story, and a worthy Derby winner

He wasn\'t up to the caliber of the other 12 TC greats, whatever the reason

Congrats to the winner and those who backed him

Actually, it\'s a known unknown

CC gets to use it, another factor in his favor I suppose

I followed the wailing and gnashing of teeth here about that, but don\'t think it is what made him so good. You have to allow for the possibility that his numbers got better for reasons of  training and maturation.  You will need a controlled experiment to prove a horse can improve by leaps and bounds by simply placing a nasal strip on.

He is a freak, not a fraud.

Will all the other Belmont contenders be \"stripping up\"? At least it will be visible, not like drugs.

 Let\'s see Saturday...

For me, backups with multiple other horses in pick 3 and pick 4
Exactas with multiple horses without CC
wide superfecta wheel/box with no CC

With all backups, include the absolute longest shots, even if you think absolutely no way by standard deterministic methods.   If they have 4 legs they can win.

Weird things happen, though I hope not this Saturday.  

I took my elderly father to the Santa Anita Derby this year, and want him to see a Triple Crown winner.

Interesting bet, like a point spread

There would have to be serious $$ to cash for a bet to equal Belmont 1973

No, I\'m saying that unexpected greatness is possible, just like the possibility of abject failure. We all have become used to the bad outcomes for so long that it\'s hard to think it could be otherwise

\"Tremendous machine\" lengths

Yeah, Secretariat was the greatest, but he only had 3 other tired horses in that field...

the Belmont distance adds so many unknowns for CC to win the TC

those same variables affect the competition too

Many things seem to indicate \"all systems go\"

The horse reportedly training well over the Belmont surface

weather looks to be good.  He has handled large crowds calmly

His jock has had the TC experience before, is getting some rides there beforehand

While he may not get the distance, there is also the chance he obliterates this field by many horse lengths.  His tactical speed is clearly an advantage

Yes, I\'m going to have some backups to CC, but be prepared for an historic win by him too...

all you folks are so suspicious here about the drug use in horses, analyzing the data to show who is suspicious- and with good cause

Yet in that Belmont, the horse was stopped by the actions of his jockey, in quite a mysterious way, never fully explained to the betting public

Given the seediness of his owners and trainer, acknowledged steroid using, etc, you HAVE to concede the possibility that it was a fixed result.  

Sure, owning a triple crown horse would be lucrative, but this outfit obviously was playing a different game than we do- that Deadspin article is shocking

I DO think I will play some backups to CC in the big race, just to take into account the murkiness of our game when there is so much money on the line, as well as it may just be too much for him to pull it off.

I\'m also kinda suspicious of Ill Have Another being abruptly pulled from the Belmont a couple of years ago, then abruptly being sold to Japanese owners.

  Sometimes things in racing are not as they first seem...

Oh, beg to differ with you here

the 2008 Belmont had a 9 horse field, with BB an overwhelming favorite, went off at 1:4

If you knew BB would not finish in the top 4 you could easily make a major score with the exotics.  Look at the payouts for the pick 4, pick 6 or probably the best vehicle, vertical wagers.  The superfecta paid over 48k that day, which is huge with such a small field.   The folks on this board are great strategic handicappers, and would have constructed wagers that would have been quite lucrative.  

Much of the discussion on this board is by guys who want to \"beat\" Chrome and make a huge score.  That is exactly what happened in 2008 at Belmont, and I think it\'s smells pretty fishy.  My brother and I were dazed by the whole thing, most of the crowd was confused about what happened to the horse, thinking he was injured.  If people had known he was just fine, there would have been a riot.  

I also disagree about BB being \"finished\".  He was in 3rd place with 1/2 mile to go, and was eased up by Desormeaux, taken out of any chance of a first four placing.  He had NO physical reason for this!  If a jock does this in a normal race on a weekend at your local track, he had better have a real explanation, or he gets suspended.  This occurrence in a triple crown race is unprecedented as far as I can tell, particularly with amount of money on the line.

the hottest day of racing I\'ve ever experienced

120,000 screaming sweaty New Yorkers silenced in moments when the horse was pulled up, an event still never fully explained.

Of all the conspiracy theories and inside jobs in our sport, that event stands out.  The money that was made by somebody by having BB finish last would be astounding, yet nobody ever really investigated that.  I wonder if Desormeaux has some stash of gold bars buried in the bayou somewhere...

also, trying to leave Belmont afterwards on the LIRR was a crush like an English soccer match of the old days, seriously frightening

so no, I will stay home for this Belmont Day, as much as I have enjoyed watching CC win out here in California.  BTW, the Santa Anita Derby Day is the best deal in horseracing.  Beautiful views with a big crowd, and reasonable prices...

On why CC can\'t win the Belmont

Yes, visually he had to work more this time, since SI moved early

But that horse WANTS to win, a quality that isn\'t easily quantitated

Well, you can turn that around and look at it differently.  One big thing about CC that is different than the competition is race experience and fitness

Since he came from the lower ranks as far as breeding goes, the money invested in him was far less.  He was not that dominant till he got some races under his belt, and got a quality jockey

He is more similar to the old style training up to his 3 year old season, since the owners had less $$ to lose in racing him.  So often the modern training is focused on avoiding injury to an expensive animal rather than getting him optimally fit for the grueling TC run

Rather than think of his additional races as detrimental, maybe this will be to his advantage

The thing I love about racing is you get to endlessly speculate, and then see the results on the track...