7-8-9-12

Bailey and Brad today on Mike\'s show - hard-on in paddock, bad start (per usual), wide trip; should run a lot better if he has his head on straight.  Did anyone else see him in the paddock?

I like that he is forwardly focused.  Even when the jock takes a hold, he is very eager and keeps a good position and doesn\'t have to go wide on the turn. He\'s game in a duel in the stretch,  but once he gets the lead I have some questions: does he think the race is over when he pulls away (20 Feb.) and lose focus? or as in 26Mar,go to left lead when he\'s got it won?  Is he running low figs because he\'s only doing what it takes to win?  Too bad his last race was over at the 1/8 pole and we\'ll have to wait for the KD to find out.  Thoughts?

Playing Tampa on Sat.  Watching the replays.  Is this the worst race caller around?...and he\'s been there for quite awhile, I think.  Any similarity between his call and the actual race is purely coincidental.

Don\'t know if this is apropos or not, but in the 2012 KD I hit the SFA for $1.  It paid $48K+.  IHA was I think 19-1, Bode ( fave ) 3-1?) Dullahan (single digit, I think) and Went the Day Well I think was something like 25-1.  While waiting for the photo, my friends were telling me it would probably pay somewhere around 30K-40K for $2.  When it came back at 96+K for $2, I was happily surprised of course.  I\'m not sure I\'ve remembered the odds correctly, but that certainly makes up for a lot of ones that comeback lighter than expected.  By the way, after betting Win and Exacta\'s on the race, I had $12 left on my voucher, and played IFA and Bode over the other 2, for a 2/4/4/4 ticket.  I learned a lesson that day:when you have a strong opinion, don\'t be timid.

Anybody have any info on what happened to cause him to bolt like he did? Viewing the head on it looked like the jock was riding lop-sided on the backstretch...lost an iron?

Yes Miff you\'re right.  Always enjoy and respect your comments and observations.  Since we won\'t be hearing from Cove,would love to have your final take on the fields\' workouts, looks, and PP draw Wed.or Thurs. Whatta you say?

Check out the video on BloodHorse; pre-gallop and gallop.  Unless they put up a wall at the 1/4 pole .......

11 days away, thinking about how the odds will be, here\'s a stab, all comments welcome:

A\'s 1-1 to less, AP

B\'s 4-1 to 8-1, Mat, Fro

C\'s 9-1 to 15-1, CD, Mub, Mad  

D\'s 16-1 to 25-1, TOV, KI, CC

E\'s 25-1+ Fra

Peter Pan horses finished 1,2 last year and the 2 almost won.  Speed was king last year, and when Commissioner came out for his warmup and I saw the jock rev him up, I tried desperately to get from my seat to make the bet --- no luck  -- too late with that crowd.

Well, I can\'t see how the 2 hole hurt him.  

Here are my trip notes for the race:

 Good break without much trouble under a good hold, very eager maybe even fighting the jock, taken back into a pocket forming around him, 1W, \"turned on\" entering the back stretch, taken off rail to 3 or 4 path and clear, chasing 3W, one paced around turn and came up empty entering top of the stretch, despite steady urging, fell back steadily.

Has anyone heard of any pre-race problems, including in the paddock or going to and in the gate, that might have caused his poor performance in the Derby?  Any excuse at all, or is he an automatic toss?

Thanks Miff.

One the horses at Bel. this past Sat. was announced as having \"screens off\".  Anybody know what that term means; it\'s the first time I\'ve ever heard it.

Can somebody help me with answers to these questions?

  On Derby day the track is very \"glib\" for the early races and then when we get to the Derby it\'s considered \"slow\" and \"tiring\".  The weather didn\'t change, nobody was talking about noticeable wind,they have water trucks, harrowing etc. they use between races, so why can\'t they keep it constant?

Also everyone keeps talking about \"moderate\" early fractions; really? They ran the second and third quarters in 24, if they kept going in 24\'s you\'d get a 159/1: that\'s not a \"moderate\" final.    If they were so \'moderate\", why couldn\'t these great horses run the next two quarters faster than 25/1 and 26/3?    Also the first \"moderate\" fraction of the race ( 23/1) was run over the same part of the track in the same direction as the \"tiring\" fraction of 26/3?  Was the track really \"tiring\" ( we all know dirt horses unlike turfers usually run the 1st 1/4 faster than the last , but 3+ seconds faster? If the fractions were so \"moderate\" Why did they come home so slow?   OR, were the HORSES tired? That is, NOT SO GOOD?  Let\'s say AP ran the 3/4 in 1:11/3, (so-called \"moderate\") , so he comes home last half in 51/2. Let\'s not consider Rags, which is ridiculous, but is that performance for THAT DISTANCE worthy of such a good fig from TG ( or, Beyer, or anyone at least 1/2 legit)?  Are we talking about SPEED or EFFORT?