Mr.Smith,
Your dogmatic views are not surprising given your stated profession, and against all sound reason here are my two cents.
Say I am a win only bettor and make my own betting line. I will only place a wager when the public line is 50% greater than my line - hence creating a overlay in my opinion. I will NEVER place a wager unless that situation occurs. Therefore the determining factor of my wagering success or failure will be the accuracy of my betting line vs. the public - the takeout will be IRRELEVANT. The public odds are already Net Takeout, so the takeout will only affect how many plays occur.
This is a grind it out style - but the logic is not refutable. Again the premise is that I am BETTER than the public and adhere to the discipline of the method, and if I am not better on average than the public I will lose. Not because of the takeout, but because I am a below average handicapper.
Capital markets are not always efficient, and public sentiment can be affected by many factors that lead to the over valuation or undervaluation of assets or commodities(or horses).
Not available here, but betting exchanges are a perfect market for the above. The rounded percentage on the \"back\" side for horses in a fairly liquid market can be in the 102%-105% range - well below the 16%-18% in a mutuel pool. You can also take the other side against well backed favorites and \"lay\" the price.
Take it for what you will, but your blanket assertions are rather amusing and I personally think that because you don\'t win it makes it easier for you to believe that there is no such animal as a profitable horseplayer.
MJ- Your record on this board before the BB Derby and the subsequent results stands on their own - you don\'t have to post your betting records.
Your dogmatic views are not surprising given your stated profession, and against all sound reason here are my two cents.
Say I am a win only bettor and make my own betting line. I will only place a wager when the public line is 50% greater than my line - hence creating a overlay in my opinion. I will NEVER place a wager unless that situation occurs. Therefore the determining factor of my wagering success or failure will be the accuracy of my betting line vs. the public - the takeout will be IRRELEVANT. The public odds are already Net Takeout, so the takeout will only affect how many plays occur.
This is a grind it out style - but the logic is not refutable. Again the premise is that I am BETTER than the public and adhere to the discipline of the method, and if I am not better on average than the public I will lose. Not because of the takeout, but because I am a below average handicapper.
Capital markets are not always efficient, and public sentiment can be affected by many factors that lead to the over valuation or undervaluation of assets or commodities(or horses).
Not available here, but betting exchanges are a perfect market for the above. The rounded percentage on the \"back\" side for horses in a fairly liquid market can be in the 102%-105% range - well below the 16%-18% in a mutuel pool. You can also take the other side against well backed favorites and \"lay\" the price.
Take it for what you will, but your blanket assertions are rather amusing and I personally think that because you don\'t win it makes it easier for you to believe that there is no such animal as a profitable horseplayer.
MJ- Your record on this board before the BB Derby and the subsequent results stands on their own - you don\'t have to post your betting records.