Any one in the know on how lush/wet/deep the turf @ Keeneland is today?

From the head-on view you can see that Mucho Macho Man came in not once to clip AK, but twice just after the break.  The second one broke his stride/momentum,and forced him to lose quite a bit of ground before settling back in to stride.  Johnny V had enough poise and balance just to stay on the horse.  Of course, he made an impressive move on the far turn, but it was not to be.  He just didn\'t have enough left.

My condolences to all of you who were all over Brilliant Speed & Stay Thirsty.  Those 2 rounded out my exotics...

Ruler on Slop.

I have never been the type of horseplayer to develop an emotional attachment to a racehorse.  From a handicapping and wagering standpoint, my best ROI has come from exploiting weak favorites in big races that have garnered the nation\'s affection.  For the first time, I now find myself thinking, \"How could I have become that guy?\"

As of yet, I do not believe Animal Kingdom has gained America\'s fancy like so many greats before him.  However, I now question whether I have become the emotionally blinded fool that has made it profitable for me to play this game.  I do not recall ever seeing a horse accelerate so smoothly by a Derby field as AK did that day.  I still do not know why I was so drawn to the flourish he finished with at Churchill.  I had no piece of him then.  I was in the MI/Soldat/Pants on Fire crew like some of you.   At the wire, I immediately said to the boys: \"This year, we will see a Triple Crown winner.\"  I don\'t normally let words like that fall so easily, yet I was sure I was seeing one of the greats have his coronation.

I went out to Belmont on Preakness Saturday with the intention of shoving it through the window with both fists.  I smashed the few Belmont races worth playing, got lucky with Curatolo, and cashed on most of the Preakness undercard.  I sent it in.  Nearly 75% of the cash I had on hand was laid out to win on AK, the largest wager of my life.  The rest was spread out attempting to save should he run second.  Fortunately/unfortunately, I was more then saved by the very solid Shak-AK exacta pay-out.  I was financially vindicated, and I was partially cursed.  

I confess, animal magnetism has sucked me in.  The Belmont Stakes is 3 days away, right in the backyard where I earned my racing stripes.  I have not convinced myself to sit the sidelines for fear of missing out on this mystical attachment I have discovered.  A big part of me does not even want to, it seems too compelling.  It is oddly surreal.  I have convinced myself (and others) that this will be the largest price we will see on the \"superhorse\" for the remainder of this year.  Ironically, I have spent the last week structuring an approach to exploit it.  Somehow, the figure-playing sharp has become a common fan.

So I now appeal to clearer, more experienced minds.  Have any of you had an experience with animal magnetism with a thoroughbred?  What did you make of it?  How did you handle it?

The more relevant comparison is Victory Gallop (on 2-3 yo pattern development and race spacing/frequency).  There are also some relevant comparisons to be drawn with Real Quiet and Charismatic (when they topped in KD/paired in Belmont iirc).

As I\'ve already posted, I believe AK is elite, but 3-1 is a pipe dream.  2-1 is a small stretch.

I\'m sure you\'ll be gone in no time, but let me the first to congratulate you on your poorly dressed, poorly executed, and methodologically questionable numbers that will fall off like so many burned tickets to the floor.  

And I took a look at your numbers, Inglorious was NOT a standout as you claimed and Spooky Kitten was NOT most likely to improve.  Keep up your claims on your trash that I wouldn\'t wipe myself with, and soon you\'ll line the stalls of 5k claimers at Finger Lakes as your meant to.

Goodbye and good riddance.

Here\'s the video of the work, with a fair amount of the gallop-out shown at the end.

I\'ll also say that belmontstakes.com has done a decent job in coverage leading up to the race.

47.76, breezing, galloping out 5f in 1:00.6 (at his own urging).  

While I understand the 0-2-X play against here, this horse continues to do everything effortlessly.  If he breaks well at Pimico, you\'d get 2-5 here. But at 2-1 keyed up top in exactas/triples/supers with value beneath in multiple spots, I\'m hammering him again here.  Should Santiva and/or /Stay Thirsty beat him. I\'ll be more than \"saved.\"  In my opinion, AK is a lock key in my veritcals that will win for fun.

So does this mean we are keying him for second or that there is a 500k puddle of spilt milk around the Preakness winner?

Too soon?

From twinspires.com

1 Astrology   $102.20
2 Norman Asbjornson   $558.40
3 King Congie   $180.40
4 Flashpoint   $165.80
5 Shackleford   $120.60
6 Sway Away   $49.80
7 Midnight Interlude   $122.20
8 Dance City   $71.00
9 Mucho Macho Man   $49.00
10 Dialed In   $35.00
11 Animal Kingdom   $21.00
12 Isn\'t He Perfect   $917.60
13 Concealed Identity   $483.00
14 Mr. Commons   $231.20

ROTW?

First, Sekrah, amazing call.
Second, there is so much justice in this world.  This makes up for the Sky Beauty DQ at Saratoga when I was 7 and bet everything I had on a cold exacta before they took her down.  My god, considering this exacta only paid a shade over 500, this board saved me from filling out any paperwork on my tidy little score.

Thx Michael!  

Coming off of last years lay-off as a 6yo, Alcomo put up back-to-back 0s.  Wasn\'t sure if the lightly raced shipper could repeat that at 7, but he looked awesome in the paddock and post parade.  

So... I had the Brazilian 7yo keyed up with Eldaafer and Tim Ice\'s Gangbuster.   B/c of your post, the last thing I did before leaving the window was play a saver exacta 2/3,4,8 box. Bankroll boost coming into a great card tomorrow.  Thanks again.

This has 8-5 written all over it.

TGJB:

It makes sense that you would fight for this relatively small customer base.  At the same time, of course, handicappers and potential thoroughbred owners also have a vested interest in seeing that the value of your figures maintain their competitive advantage.

As far as the argument itself, all I\'m saying is this: The legacy that Thoro-Graph has built by continuing the evolution of making speed-figures has spoken louder to serious players then all of the points you publicly raise about on-going flaws of the dated methodologies that have preceded you.

Continued good fortune,
Walter

I don\'t know you personally, but I respect your figures immensely.  I understand that you have a whole mentor thing going on here with your former employer and that you compete with his firm for business in the racing and handicapping communities.  On the other hand, I switched over from Rags about 5 years ago precisely because I found the entirety of your service more accurate and profitable.

I frankly don\'t get why you continue to be wrapped up in what the 2nd place finisher is doing wrong instead of focusing on continuing to put up new tops with your service.  In my humble opinion, get over him and let it go.