Menu

Show posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Show posts Menu

Messages - yzaim9303

#1
Ask the Experts / Re: J.B,S TIDS AND BIDS
August 03, 2009, 01:29:50 AM
Thanks SANREADIS,
I agree everything you said, here are what I think best of J.B.


1- Pairing his previous top  first out this year, a good sign.

2- Sometimes big efforts close together take a lot out of a young Horse.

3-- Goodhorses should be running top efforts often, usually at least every other run.

4-- A  typical stake-level grass horse, in that he runs his top or close to it in every start.

5- the new top,  was a small incremental step, just thetype of new top that is sustainable, not depleting, less likely to incur an adverse reaction. Any new top can set a horse back or stymie development,but often small steps forward paradoxically signal that even better is coming and soon. Explosive pattern.

6- After two forward moves, the gas tank is usually depleted.

7- Tight pairs, and by tight we mean shortly spaced, especially in young horses, denote that the horse can handle the performance level and presage
imminent improvement.

8- while tops can be an immediate whammy, the flip side is that slight new tops evince a developing equine, one that is perhaps in the midst of growth surge.

9- Tight pairs (and by tight we mean shortly spaced) often imply the level was within the ability of the horse and augurs for better soon

10- Stakes level 3yos often do pair up top efforts.

11- New tops have license to always set a horse back,but a good, healthy horse should be able to get back to its top fairly quickly.

12- As we said, until a horse levels off, there is no way to know what
his top is.

13- When we evaluate cycles, we look at three things—whether the best effort in each cycle was better or worse than previous ones, whether the time between tops is getting shorter or longer, and whether the off races in each cycle are getting better or worse.

14- Horses that stay at the same level for an extended period of time and then jump are far more likely to go back than forward again.
#2
Ask the Experts / J.B,S TIDS AND BIDS
July 31, 2009, 01:10:23 PM
GIVE YOU 10 MORE MONDAY MORNING IF ANY BODY WANTS.
#3
TONY, JB IS TRYING TO TEACH COUPLE THINGS TO US, INSTEAD OF MOCKING ME READ WHAT THE MAN SAYS. OBVIOUSLY HE KNOWS MUCH BETTER THAN I ABOUT THESE ANIMALS ,MAY BE HE DOES NOT KNOW AS MUCH AS YOU DO,IF YOU WANT TO CONTRIBUTE I WILL LISTEN YOU WHOLE DAY. THANKS AND REGARDS.
#4
Ask the Experts / 10 MORE J.B. TID-BITS
July 31, 2009, 06:52:07 AM
Here are 10 more of  J.B

11- Ran a big one in his debut but took a full year before breaking through that level in his last. That's not a healthy pattern.
12- As a rule it's tough to back fast, confirmed dirt runners against solid, albeit slightly slower turf racers.
13-  0-X pattern where the 0s are good runs and the Xs are bounces.
14- Goodhorses should be running top efforts often, usually at least every other run.
15- The consistent campaign and fairly short rest imply that this guy is going to run
another right at this level.
16- That effort earned a buried mark designation (!, adjacent the figure) meaning
the effort was better than it looked paper— The effort was disguised and often what ensues next-time out is exactly what's happening here—high odds because the effort doesn't look as good as say the one preceding it even though we know it was better and is competitive with these.
17- A  typical stake-level grass horse, in that he runs his top or close to it in every start.
18-  The classic Thoro-Graph sheet of the unsound horse—a few big figures, separated by wide open spaces. One of the great false handicapping assumptions is that all horses benefit from having a race under their belt following a layoff, an then improve—unsound horses often run their best fresh.
19- This is what sheet players call an 0-2, a top followed by a two point regression.
pattern an off race is more likely. If she or he backs up again we'll be interested in
betting her next time off the 0-2-X.
20-Sometimes it's not who you like, it's who you don't like.X and Y will take a lot of money, and are clear bet againsts,so the exotics using the contenders should be overlaid.
#5
Ask the Experts / J.B. tid-bits
July 30, 2009, 10:44:37 PM
Dear J.B,   over a period of time I gather some of J.B tid-bits .If you allow and your readers likes it will post it. Here are some of the samples.


1-Often late starters are late boomers insofar as not reaching their ultimate best until they are 5 or older.
2-Horses can always bounce or react short-or long term to a new top, paradoxically slight new tops often presage more imminent improvement.
3-Healty stake level grass horses seldom run too far off their best.
4- Be aware that while we always look for newtops, they come far less often than we expect.
5-Stake-level 3 yos can get real good in the spring and be able stay that way for a while
6-Pairing his previous top  first out this year, a good sign.
7-  An ouchy sort that doesn't run long campaigns; these types often fire big first out off the layoff.
8- Sometimes big efforts close together take a lot out of a young
Horse.
9- Unsound horses often run their best off a layoff.
10- The classic pattern of the unsound horse—short campaigns and long layoffs
#6
Ask the Experts / nyra
July 03, 2009, 12:53:27 PM
I cannot believe 19 horses scratched today at belmont. People still talk about cal racing