alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Excuse me.  You think there would even BE
> horseracing without gambling?  You like to watch
> horses running in circles for the thrill of it?
> That\'s another planet from mine.
>
> There may be a dozen varieties of ways to connect
> gambling concepts, but personally I would prefer
> to see tracks with casinos helping satisfy the
> animal spirits than to watch the mob move in on
> the Indians to set up mini-Las Vegas\' around the
> country with NO connection to the sport I love.
>
> When you go getting philosophical about businesses
> standing on their own you prove only one
> thing....you have no clue.

JimP is the one who gets it.  Slots have nothing to do with horse racing.  To say  they\'re related and therefore slots should fund racing makes as much sense as saying the NASCAR should fund horse racing since they\'re both racing.

Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Well you may be right but I didnt want to post and
> osund like sour grapes either. Hansen ran well and
> won. Came off the last turn like a racehorse and
> good for him. As Monmouth Guy said between the
> questions about being hung wide and maybe what I
> had heard at 4/5 he was an easy bet against.
>
> He has now already shipped out to Turfway where I
> guess he is going back to Poly in the Lanes End
> and then the Blue Grass or just one of them. So he
> will be tough to figure on derby Day unless he
> begins to run better figures.
>
> Which before yesterday were not much.....


You were right to say you were wrong.  A horse that bleeds a 10, that describes a horse who bled out and died or close to it.  That horse isn\'t coming back in a month to run in any race, much less win one.  It\'s possible he bled a little through his Lasix but that\'s also doubtful as that\'s a problem as well.  Lesson learned here, I\'d say, is to not trust future info from the person who told you this.

sighthound Wrote:
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> Bookie odds in Australia are different than
> parimutual tote odds in the US.
>
> ---------
> SHE\'S the champion of the world, one of the best
> Australia has ever seen and the horse that broke
> the gates down.
>
> Black Caviar, the best sprinting thoroughbred on
> the planet, turned back the clock at Caulfield
> today, dragging an old-fashioned bumper crowd that
> was allowed in free of charge just to see her
> run.
>
> And at the same time she showed a glimpse of
> what\'s to come when she leaves Australia next
> month to take on the world.
>
> As everyone expected her to, Black Caviar bounded
> to her 18th win from as many starts in the Group
> One CF Orr Stakes.
>
> Only the South Australian mare Southern Speed made
> anything like a race of it with Black Caviar, and
> she had to produce the run of her life to fill
> second place, 3-1/4 lengths behind the great
> mare.
>
> As well as taking her one race closer to the
> record number of wins for an unbeaten horse in
> Australia, it took her prizemoney total to a tick
> under $5 million.
>
> \"That might have been her best run yet,\" said
> senior part-owner Neil Werrett.
>
> \"It was her easiest.\"
>
> As well as the massive crowd Black Caviar
> \"invited\" to see her Caulfield, her performance
> stopped a cricket match on the oval near the 1200m
> mark, the players jumping the fence to watch her
> flash past.
>
> The only surprise to come from the race was
> delivered by trainer Peter Moody, who said he
> might run Black Caviar at Flemington next week and
> then come back to Caulfield the week after.
>
> \"If she pulls up well, you might see her again in
> seven days, and if she comes through that all
> right, she might be back here seven days later.\"
>
> Black Caviar is then scheduled to race in Dubai
> next month at the world\'s richest race meeting,
> before tackling Europe\'s best at Royal Ascot in
> June.
>
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/sport/black-c
> aviar-does-it-easy-in-18th-straight-win-in-front-o
> f-large-caulfield-crowd/story-e6frg7mf-12262685570
> 33

Did you see the Aussie odds?  Not much better.

TreadHead Wrote:
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> It was and open Grade 1 against males, and Aus
> turf sprinters are no slouches on the
> international scene, I have seen several Aus
> bred/raced horses win turf sprints in Meydan the
> past few weeks.  It is the best the country has to
> offer (unlike the campaigns Zenyatta ran), if she
> is so much better that every dollar is wagered on
> her, and rightfully so.
>
> It\'s a shame if they place so much emphasis on the
> 20th win in AUS thing and run her every 2 weeks.
> She belongs in Dubai in a turf mile, there is
> nothing more to prove in AUS.

They must\'ve been slouches to have all been at 99-1 odds.  When have you ever seen that in any race, much less a G1, in the U.S.?  Including Zenyatta\'s races.

She apparently beat a bunch of weiner dogs given the entire field was 99-1 except for her.  Hard to take that seriously.

He looked like a monster on the track yesterday.  Monster.  With HDG and Mo not working so well, I think Flat Out is the horse to beat.  Game On Dude also worked fantastic but did so in CA, not over the Churchill surface.

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
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> I\'ve been reading this string and getting
> dizzy.....
>
> Speed Figure is based on the Speed of the race +
> all the other factors stated on the TG How to read
> the figs.....
>
> And the Shoe thing is part of Handicapping.....so
> what are we talking about??
>
> Give it a rest already...

What we\'re talking about is the interjection by someone that the TG figures tell the tale, and that because Z\'s figures weren\'t as good as x, y and z, then she\'s overrated.

I pointed out how TG and other figures don\'t tell the tale.  Her not handling the track early is one such example.  Surely this isn\'t news to everyone around here that there are other things to consider when assessing a horse other than just their speed figures.

TGJB Wrote:
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> Good thinking, because even if we accept your
> reasoning and that it had an effect, no other
> horse has ever had anything to deal with. Right?

Oh, so then you only deal with the final time, not anything else like a horse\'s trip.  I see.

TGJB Wrote:
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> And after that race we were able to give her a
> figure. And able to compare that figure to those
> run by someone like Havre De Grace. And neither of
> you guys is listening-- you are having a different
> conversation.
>
> This goes to the question we discussed about
> baseball teams, and you could certainly apply it
> to this year\'s Cards. If you look at where they
> finished there is no discussion, everything is
> exactly what their record shows it is, the Cards
> were the best team by definition. And that is a
> separate question-- Sekrah made the point early in
> this string, I made it as clear as it can be made,
> and you guys simply want to have a different
> conversation, over and over. We know what her
> record was, we know what she accomplished. The
> issue is COMPARING her to that.
>
> The shoe stuff is downright silly. You want to
> make a shoe correction? How many points?

Her being obviously uncomfortable in the early going is a fact, and any reasonable human factors that in when assessing her performance.  If your numbers can\'t factor in such facts, then it only illustrates one of the flaws of your numbers, and I wouldn\'t call that silly.

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Let\'s wrap this up. Given the public perception
> that Zenyatta was one of the all time greats,
> there is no question she is wildly overrated-- her
> record was inflated by synthetics and running
> against doormats.
>
> Was she very good? Of course. Consitent?
> Incredibly so. But the issue of overrated or not
> goes to EXACTLY what we do here-- measure ability.
> Comparing ability to accomplishment determines
> whether something is rated properly, overrated, or
> underrated. Zenyatta isn\'t anywhere near the top
> of the list in terms of figures by a female (let
> alone a colt) just since I\'ve been doing this.
>
> Again, that doesn\'t mean she wasn\'t good, even
> arguably great, when you combine ability with
> consistency. But that\'s a different question.


That\'s not a different question -- that goes to the heart of her ability.  Name the other horses who put together a string of 19 wins with better overall numbers.  Can\'t do it?  Give us the horses who put together a string of 12 wins with better numbers.

Numbers don\'t tell everything.  How much did you credit her for the queen\'s plates she was wearing and obvious inability to grab the track early on in the Classic at CD?

sekrah Wrote:
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> Zenyatta doesn\'t amount to a pimple on Skip Away\'s
> ass, and how much media coverage did he get from
> the idiotic nightly news programs? Probably
> 1/200th the media coverage she got.   Calling her
> overrated is asinine?   It\'s the 100% truth.

Overrated?  Yes, by some.  But you\'re as bad as those extremists with your own extremist opinion, just opposite.

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Funny Cide Wrote:
> > Run that
> > race 9 more times, with Zenyatta in the right
> > shoes, and she wins the next 9.  
>
> One of the more asinine statements I\'ve read on
> here in a while.   Completely and totally absurd.

It\'s more asinine to say the mare only ran one race in 2010.

plasticman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Personally, i would have no problem seeing Rapid
> Redux win HOY if he goes the rest of year without
> a loss. He won\'t win it, but if he did, i wouldnt
> say it was a travesty.

It\'d be a travesty.  Really, what do you think his chances would be against Mo or Grace or Flat Out or Game On Dude?  Or whatever horse happens to be the highest priced horse in any of the races open to older males on dirt?

I\'m fond of Rapid Redux and hope they don\'t break him down, but you don\'t vote for a horse for HOY who stands no chance whatsoever against the best horses out there.

plasticman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> LC, Blame beat Z fair and square but Haynesfield
> beat Blame fair and square. Both horses lost one
> race fair and square. Z had the better career and
> the better span of 2/3 years. I know its \'horse of
> the YEAR\' but since there is really no criteria
> for voting and the voting is done by humans, those
> same humans are allowed to make the last TWO years
> a factor, even if they technically should not.
>
> Z won the BCC the year before in stunning fashion
> and LOST the HOY. She had back to back sensational
> performances in the BCC while Blame only had 1.
>
> The award is horse of the YEAR, but it could
> theoretically be \'horse of the period\'. Its the
> same in pro sports. MVP is most VALUABLE player,
> but usually, the player who wins this award is the
> BEST player and not necessarily the most valuable
> to his team. It SAYS valuable, but really means
> BEST. Maybe \"Year\" really means \"period\".
>
> Since there is no bylaws for HOY voters that they
> are not allowed to \'take into consideration\'
> anything that happened outside of the \'jan 1-dec
> 31\' calendar year, its open to interpretation, its
> just a matter of how you want to interpret it.

I don\'t disagree with your argument, but I don\'t think you\'re making it as well as you can.

One doesn\'t have to count any races of any prior years to still come up with Zenyatta having the best 2010.  It was in 2010 that she recorded the following achievements:  Won a record-tying 16 in a row; won record-setting 17, 18, and 19 in a row; won her 10th, 11th, 12th, and 13th G1s; and won her 9th G1 in a row.

In addition, she clearly ran the best BC Classic, when she just barely ran out of real estate after climbing early, wearing the wrong shoes for that surface.

Blame was not by any stretch of the imagination the best racehorse of 2010.  He was a good racehorse whose biggest claim to fame will be that he is the only one to beat Zenyatta.  Run that race 9 more times, with Zenyatta in the right shoes, and she wins the next 9.  Not a doubt in my mind, even though I was somewhat critical of her accomplishments, mostly on synthetics.

alm Wrote:
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> Both of these fillies struggle to hold the lead or
> get the lead running against fillies.  Why would
> they be more effective against colts?
>
> I\'m not saying they are not terrific, but the way
> Tizway is being handled this year as opposed to
> last year, he may not feel any competition from
> them. He\'s probably faster overall than either of
> them.  I think his numbers show that, no?

To my knowledge, no.  I\'m pretty sure that HDG holds the best figure this year for 1 1/4 miles, followed closely by BL.

Not sure who you\'ve seen these two struggle against (at least as you state it, which is that it\'s the \"norm\" for them to struggle and barely win)?