I will be at Saratoga for Travers Day this year.  I guess I am a glutton for punishment with the crowds.  Does anyone have an extra seat that they would be willing to sell?  I am not that picky.

Thanks!

I am not saying that I agree with the decision, if it goes that way, just predicting what they will do.  She should get a break until August IMHO.

I want to commend Jerry on his analysis of RA in the Preakness.  I did not see the TG numbers but everyone understood that RA was coming off a very fast figure from which she figured to regress.  The main question was how much and would it be enough to cause her to lose or run out of the money.  Jerry\'s comments on the board were pretty accurate, including his analysis of her pace abilities.  Watching the race it seemed like she could have cleared the field but Borel elected to have her stalk just outside BD and then she made the lead as she pleased.

Based on how the horses came in, beaten lengths and times throughout the day I guestimated that she ran about 3 points slower than on Oaks Day.  We\'ll see how the figs come back.  If so her pattern is going to look a lot like War Emblem\'s and BB\'s.  I made a killing betting against WE in the Belmont and last year failed to do so by not betting against BB -- mainly because I believed my eyes in the Preakness (note to self, never do that again).

I also appreciated Jerry\'s view of why the big efforts cause problems, though I do think that sometimes the effort actually does cause a significant physical issue that is not detected pre-race (thinking Barbaro here).

The list of top horses that went bad after big efforts seems to dwarf the number of horses that just ran consistently good numbers in the normal range.  From memory I have Ruffian, Go For Wand, Fusaichi Pegasus, Charismatic, Big Brown, Afleet Alex, Point Given (granted he ran a number of ridiculous numbers but I think his last race was his fastest and he never ran again), Riboletta, the list goes on.  It is a game of percentages, not certainties.  I\'ll ride the percentages every day.

FWIW I will bet that the RA camp ultimately decides to run her as long as she does not show any severe outward signs of trouble.

The public/media will demand it and horsemen and owners usually find a way to rationalize running horses in these kinds of spots, especially if it can make her the true front-runner for HOTY.

Belmont Park should offer to split the extra gate 50-50 with JJ as an incentive.  Should be work at least $600k to the owner.

The point on Arazi, which you chose not to understand, was that he ran a pretty slow number in the BC but he \'looked\' a lot faster than that because of the dramatic move he made.  He was one of the slower BC 2 y.o. champs and had no shot in the Derby because he was slow and had stopped developing.

There are always excuses, as you aptly demonstrate, but the bottom line is that the figs are the figs are the figs and if you understand how to interpret them and use sound historical/statistical analytic methods, you will make money.  If you decide to bet horses because they look good winning \"easily\" despite what the figures say then . . . . best of luck to you.

Don\'t believe the numbers.  Believe your eyes.  Believe Arazi demolishing the BC Juvenile field with no effort at all.  Believe Big Brown\'s \'easy\' Preakness win (confession -- I did).  Believe IWR\'s \'easy\' non-effort Wood off of his big top that took nothing out of the horse.  And Believe that a 3 y.o. filly runs a big negative number without even putting forth an effort.

Jerry,

Last year we spent $504 for the 14k because we keyed BB on top.  I am pretty good with risk/reward calculations and hedging, though I failed to adequately hedge yesterday ($5 exacta 16-8 but no box?).

I think that it makes sense to spend a lot on the Derby Super because the overlay is huge when a couple longer shots hit the top 4.

$1

Only if all 3 hit the Super and no big longshot comes in.  Remember last year the 2:1 favorite won, the 4th (or 5th) choice was 2nd and the Super (which we hit) still paid $29k.  The year before when SS won as the favorite, both Hard Spun and Curlin were in the top 5 choices and it paid $14k.

I think it is worth the plunge because the public never goes deep enough to use enough longshots so the payouts are almost always big.  What\'s the lowest Derby Super ever?

Jerry,

We keyed POTN with 9 horses for 1st and 2nd: West Side Bernie, Papa Clem, Friesan Fire, Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk, General Quarters, Hold Me Back, Musket Man, Summer Bird

We added Mine That Bird, Flying Private, Desert Party, and Mr. Hot Stuff for 3rd and 4th

It was almost a $4k Super, split 3 ways.  The cost to put every horse in every spot would have been $6864.  Guess we should have spent the extra $3k!

He was the fastest horse coming in on Ragozin!

Seriously, when my friend and I were putting together our superfecta ticket, POTN was the key in all four spots.  I persuaded him to include Mine That Bird but we only used him for 3rd and 4th.  We used Musket Man and Papa Clem as well (in all spots).  When it became clear that the rail was superior I figured Calvin would get a great trip with the horse but can\'t say that we thought enough of him to put him in the Win spot.  Had the exacta the wrong way too.  LOL.

Or maybe that LH and SJ were the two fastest horses in the race.

Since horses are supposed to be coming into this race in peak form yet still the vast majority don\'t run tops I wonder if anyone has looked at the performance of the horses who do train poorly in the 1-2 weeks heading up to the Derby?

I would expect it should be close to 100% if the works actually mean anything.

Very helpful. Thanks.

PC is marginal to me.  Likely to bounce and needs to run or beat top to be competitive.

WSB looks fine and potentially explosive but I\'m not crazy about the breeding and that \'x\' he ran at TP is puzzling.  Since I have him at around 20:1 I don\'t think he\'ll be any value.

BTW on MM the dosage may be fine but virtually every horse entered nowadays qualifies yet look at how many can\'t get the distance.  Since he won the IL Derby I don\'t think he\'ll be a big enough price.

All are usable in the super, however!