Based on almost 40,000 races over the past year the blind ROI of betting post time second/third choice over post time favorite in exactas is 0.82

3-4-6-8

My opinion is AP was not the same for \"pick your reason\" and was going to regress off the -3 but that he might have still won if not for the pressure he endured for a sustained portion of the race.  It is hard on horses to run sustained like that between the rail and a horse looking him in the eye. Not to mention the bumping adds a lot of stress which we saw coming off the turn and according to jockey was happening repeatedly around the turn. If you believe the jockey (even if he can\'t count calendar days) that AP was not at his best (which I do) then it\'s also reasonable to believe that he was crowded and bumped.  An overhead view would have been nice post race.  Not a stretch to believe that sustained run and bumping could have cost him a TG point and the victory.

Sometimes it takes a loss to truly appreciate how special something is.  I was at the Pacific Classic when Cigar went for the consecutive win streak and lost.  It was still a fantastic experience and he lost nothing in defeat.

What would his figure be for the mile in 1:34.4 from the two path?  Still would need a h for that too!

He ran his last furlong in 13.6. Easily could have been 12.2 IMHO. I think that\'s 3.5 pts on TG

Obviously worth: Easy Goer. 3 Derby prep wins including very fast Gotham, flashy Belmont, 2 Triple Crown seconds, Travers , Woodward, Whitney,  Gold Cup and finished with a second in BC Classic. 6 G1 wins and 3 G1 seconds. Oh wait he didn\'t win. Just proves it is horse of the \"year\". Chrome won in a weak year. Who else gets it last year? Connections sealed the deal with the G1 on turf for 4 G1 wins (all against 3yo). But still that\'s 4 G1s. Not too shabby.

Go Dubs is right!  End 40 years of futility tonight.

They made $2M in Dubai. No disgrace there and could have made more.  Running in Ascot looks ill advised but hindsight is 20-20.  They are fans more than owners and got caught up in the excitement.

I just hope he runs well on his return to states.

Quite the rant. No doubt things set up well for him but with the exception of Sunday Silence, Alysheba and Silver Charm I feel it has set up well for most horses that won the first two legs before failing in the Belmont. The horse makes his own luck.

I\'m no expert but even so I can appreciate how well he moves, especially in the mornings.  Even his jogs look amazing and both his works post Preakness were beautiful. Plus I think he is a very intelligent horse the way he stands calmly and is so relaxed and friendly with people.

I hope he stays healthy and races again later this year. I don\'t think we\'ve seen his best yet

Compared to all his runners the tops about right but he\'s running more offs than pairs.

Weighing in late. The ground loss is based on geometry with no dispute.  Theoretically you can run faster on a larger radius turn then you can on a shorter one.  The larger the radius the closer to a straight line.  This is empirical. Go out and ride your bike and you can go faster if the turn radius is larger. Whether a single path makes that makes of a difference is disputable and no way can compensate for the ground loss. Watch runners in a long distance track race. They all want to race close to the inside lane to save ground. Now watch a 200 or 400 meter race where they stagger the starts based on ground loss.  The fastest runner wants the middle lane. Why not the first lane. He/she can see every other runner which seems ideal but it\'s clear you can run faster in a middle lane with a larger turn radius. This advantage would extend to the outer lanes also but then you have the disadvantage of not seeing the other runners.

I\'m thinking no Travers for him but totally agree it would be madness and mayhem. The graveyard of champions and seems you need to prep in Jim Dandy to do well.  I think Haskell and then another short break.  An interesting question is where to prep for BC should he stay healthy.  Do they bring him back to CA for final prep?

I know you haven\'t done the analysis. If AP gets Neg 3, Keen Ice is going to get a big fig (better than Frosted)and Moobie then runs a 2 point top also.  Could be the right answer though. De Kock said his horse was much better coming into Belmont than the Derby.  He made a big threatening move but couldn\'t sustain.  With Lasix he might\'ve run a zero.

Totally agree. Last 6F in 1:13.24 faster than first 6F. Definitely not optimal energy distribution.

He clearly has more stamina than any others in crop. Pedigree smedigree.

That range of number looks reasonable and fits with his prior races.  The way he layed down his final quarter pulling away from Frosted was really nice but track was glib and Keen Ice was running just as fast late.  Moobie rang a better race than Derby and if AP is -2 that puts Moobie around +2. Seems reasonable. Will be interested to see the number but he clearly ran within himself.

That may not be a tremendous machine but it\'s a machine none the less