miff Wrote:
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> JB,
>
> You forgot to reprise your thoughts on Big Brown.
> As I recall, he had either one or two races left
> in him after the Fla Derby and he was/is notorious
> for not running straight. What happened? No
> implosion, no breakdown, no nuthin!
>
> Re Eight Belles, Dr.Bramlege(sp?),THE EXPERT,
> commented that he had never seen a breakdown like
> that and had NO explantion as to the cause for the
> simultaneous multi leg fractures.
>
> It\'s beyond chutzpah that you think you know when
> something bad is going to happen to a runner from
> looking at spacing, fast figs or whatever.Guys in
> the racing Hall of Fame who are around these
> animals 60 hours week, sense nothing wrong, don\'t
> have a clue of impending disaster, but you
> do.Wow!!
>
>
> Mike

Miff/Mike

One of the posters I thoroughly enjoy reading here is \"Chuck the Clown\". I haven\'t read anything from him in awhile and read rumor he may not be able to post due to a prediction that \"Denis of Cork\" was unsound and would not race again after the Belmont Stakes. That horse did come down with a post Belmont infirmity and may not race again, although I\'ve read the stable is hoping they can get him back next year.

Is there a penalty for predicting a horse will go bad if the horse runs on? What about Chuck the Clown\'s prediction? Or is such a thing off limits regardless of the outcome?

\"a Breeders Cup Distaff winner who cost me so
much money that her name escapes me, and the Grade I winner Jostle.\"

I think the Breeders Cup Distaff winner was \"Round Pond\" a couple years ago.

Though I agree with Shanahan, the breakdown of Eight Belles was clearly a freakish thing related to genetic unsoundness. Unbridled\'s Song\'s are brilliant but tender.

I\'d have to think that Hard Spun is some evidence that Porter has a way with colts too.

Polyturf has certainly complicated things. There are \"race shape\" scenarios within the body of each race that are different from Dirt races. Two recent big race winners shed some light on the phenomena.

The Travers saw a Tiznow colt named Colonel John come in with inferior California numbers and he won a nice stretch duel.

The Ruffian saw a Tiznow mare come in with generally inferior California numbers and she won going away.

In each case the winners were certainly better on dirt than their Polyturf figures represented. The public backed each with more conviction than the Polyturf numbers would appear to warrant also.

To my eye Tough Tiz Sis was a good wager. She had run at Belmont as a filly in the Gazelle, finishing a close third to Lear\'s Princess and Rags to Riches, earning a 3. She came into the Ruffian as the Highweight and conceded significant pounds to Copper State who was a 1 or 2 mare. However, Copper State was coming off those top races and Tough Tiz\'s Sis was positioned to return to her 3YO top at Belmont and/or improve upon it with her added maturity and that proved to be what happened. The distance and one turn of the event didn\'t hurt either.

miff Wrote:
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> Hi Jim,
>
> I\'ll add a little something. At the very beginning
> of the synth/poly thing I posted here that I felt
> that dirt horses were not able to run the same TG
> figs as on dirt. I saw it in the Beyer figs and
> talked to their people who agreed then. I felt
> that then and know it now, for most horses.
>
> I recall JB jumping down my throat when I
> suggested this and he pointed to his  expertise in
> nailing track speed. The painfully slow raw times
> at Del Mar were out of the norm but \"adjusted\" I
> was informed and the horses were running their
> norm.Turns out that many horses do NOT perform at
> equal levels dirt to poly/ synth or whatever and
> there is no question in that regard.
>
> It is also worth pointing out that in spite of the
> adjutments made to these surfaces early speed is
> STILL not nearly the edge it is on most dirt
> tracks.There is still a general anti early speed
> bias at most of the poly/synths but not as bad as
> it was.
>
> All these fake tracks were garbage then and
> garbage now. Incidentally, for the poly loons, 5
> breakdowns during racing at Del Mar and 0 at the
> Spa.Thats 2 years in a row that dirt had less
> breakdowns at NY tracks.
>
>
> Mike

I think Alm\'s point involved circumstances in which there were a good number of accolades for a winning selection, without a winner. Tough Tiz was vastly superior.

covelj70 Wrote:
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> What exactly is the point of a message like this?
>
> Would you prefer TG not put up a race of the week
> or have you never thrown a horse out that has gone
> on to win when you cap it yourself?
>
> Nothing irritates me more than stupid messages
> like this.
>
> I pick stocks publicly for a living and so, like
> Jerry with the race of the week, I never have the
> luxury of getting something wrong in private.  Any
> mistake I make is out there for the whole world to
> see.  Based on my experience at work, there is
> nothing more infuriating than armchair
> quarterbacks who never publicly make predictions
> but who are quick to ridicule others who are
> willing to go out on a limb
>
> Here\'s a suggestions for you Alm,
>
> Either shut up or start putting your picks up on
> the board so we can all criticize you when you are
> wrong.

After reading this website for some time it seemed the time was right to chime in. I spent a couple weeks at Saratoga this season and had an opportunity to utilize the Thorograph products of an associate. Travers Day was a zoo, but it was a memorable day. We did well throughout, but especially satisfying was the Travers Stakes. The favorites filled out the paying spots, but we made Colonel John and Mambo in Seattle head and shoulders above the others. The only thing that would have made it better would have been if Harlem Rocker could have gotten a better go round and finished third.

The critical factor for us was not placing Pyro above third. Having read this board through the runup to the Kentucky Derby it did appear Pyro was not going to be up to the Travers exacta horses and this proved once again to be the case. He wasn\'t a strong favorite, but he certainly was a good favorite to beat.

Having learned something about the Thorograph figures here and something from the knowledgeable posters here as well, it is appreciated.

On to bigger and better things!