Once again, I did not post this.

The Real Leamas....

I didn\'t post that. Why is someone else using my name.

Leamas

I hope it\'s heavy. If it is, I think Justify will go down. Weather aside, he could pull a Big Brown and just not have it, too: \"The candle that burns twice as brightly burns half as long.\"  --Eldon Tyrell

If somebody wants facts, statistics or patterns, the fact is that it\'s a hunch that would payoff very well, and the pattern is that he is getting the kind euphoric coverage that you get at a top.

I think Wayne Lucas will figure prominently on Saturday as long as the track is not fast. Maybe Asmussen as well.

Leamas

This Derby will probably feature extreme chaos: 70- and 80-to-1 longshots hitting the tri. Dogs and cats living together. Mass hysteria.

If I could figure out which horse to key on this track, I would make some bets with the ALL button, but coming up with something predictable is hard this year.

Leamas

Crazy idea, but after the 10th results, I looked at the Derby again. IR at a huge price could like the surface. This is mostly due to sire Arch.

This could be a distilled regard so may be best to disregard.

Leamas

I think the horse could Handel it.

Someone beat me to that one. Okay, I will work something out with BeatHoofen

You are very good, Sir!

I have a $5 double to Sharp Azteca

Leamas

Btw, I hate to ask but I\'ve spent enough time looking. Does anybody know where I can find the double payoffs to the Met mile from the New York stakes?

Watching the Black Eyed Susan, despite the expected dry/fast track conditions tomorrow, I wondered if the Preakness could favor closers as well. Rosario brought the winner in with a move that gave me a flashback of Hence\'s win in the Sunland Derby. I keep going back to Hence.

 Because you\'re supposed to have reasons beyond the fact that he beat some good horses in that race, I love the breeding: Street Boss for speed with APIndy on the bottom. I also saw that Kerry Thomas liked him, and I think he\'s ready to move forward and show some real talent. I\'m not depending on him to run big so much as I am prepared for him to run big. I have him on top on some tickets.

I suppose it\'s more about what I saw than what I read (and I have looked at a LOT of stuff in the last few weeks). When he made his move in New Mexico, it looked like that pushbutton speed that I remember seeing from Afleet Alex. He would need to move forward, of course, but look how much Conquest Mo Money moved forward from Sunland to Arkansas. Obviously, I\'m drawing a line through the Derby for Hence.

I\'m seeing a lot hype on CC. I\'m going to have to let him beat me because the Aqueduct races haven\'t been producing monsters. I think LAL will show up late (dream trip in the Derby or not) and Multiplier has my attention despite the lowly status of the Illinois Derby.

 My biggest questions surround the pace â€" which I think will be a little faster than most people expect, and this could do some damage to AD--especially if the track is not too fast.  Assuming that the Derby took just a little out of him, my guess is that he will be drawn into an early duel by CMM and perhaps one or two others, then get caught late by a stalker/closer or even two of them. Who? There are only three or four possible candidates so take your pick. Maybe CE and maybe Gunny, but I can\'t get excited about either of those.


Leamas

Exactly, FP!

The numbers are based on guesses and assumptions--however professional. Some people (and some trolls) used \"numbers\" to bet against TAP and AD, and to dismiss BOM because of the assumptions about the SA Derby. And I loved the way LAL closed in the Arkansas Derby (and that Lanerie was up), but got caught up myself in the numbers surrounding the (1st) post position in the big race.

You have to use some figs and stats, sure, but when you put it all on the subjective interpretation of a number, you\'re not betting on horses anymore.

Leamas

Right on, Tread.

Jumbo trolled the shit out of me you and some others on this site.  He even went after the weather people   He thought AD would place last, he made fun of Battle of Midway when I said the horse would run a big race, and he constantly took things out of context so he could do his bullying troll routine.

 And since he\'s probably reading this because that\'s what trolls do, I want him to know that I take back that I ever said he was an expert. -- Expert troll, maybe. But that\'s it.

Leamas

I was writing my response at the same time, Tread. LOL.

Leamas

Well, certainly the rail helped the 30-1 shot break up my pick four (from probably last).

Then, in the longest dirt race--the Oaks, the winner came from last. So yes. I saw a lot of closers in the routes. I wasn\'t as specific as I might have been, but I am thinking more about the KD in this case. And the track composition might have changed over the course of the day, too, but it sure swallowed the gunners in the Oaks.

At least I have a couple doubles to BOM!

Leamas

I think the more important point is what the track condition may due to the betting.   I am speaking less in terms of a sloppy or muddy track versus a fast slow track. I made a few advance bats today, but might wind up changing them based on what I saw today. For example, I might have thought some front runners could hold on for a piece of the tri or super if the track were wet fast or just relatively fast. Now I have my doubts having seen a number of winners come from off the pace today.  Then again, most of the same jocks will ride tomorrow, so they may adjust their own strategies and slow the paces down in aggregate.

Either way, I am much less interested now in horses who win/won on the front and on fast tracks. It seems that some of the stalking running styles, like CE for example, will benefit, and closers like Gunnevera perhaps too.

Leamas

Jimbo:

Pardon me if when no one was looking I dumped my Kool-Aid into the fern. You remind me â€" you and the rest of the high priest adherents-- of the people at the Federal Reserve who have legions of PhDs using \"data\" to tell them that everything in the economy is fine just before the global financial system implodes.

I respect the methodology, but see a faster race and figure and see a very well-bred colt who carried close to the weight, with tactical speed, a great jock, and in a phase of his career where he could move forward big.

 Everybody here talks about patterns, but I have bet a lot of races in 20 or 30 years and I\'ve seen this pattern result in a big race many times. I only used two horses in the Florida Derby and one of them was Always Dreaming. I don\'t even remember if I hit the pick four not, but I thought he would move up.

OK, now you can drag me through through streets of the \"sheets\" for heresy.

Leamas