i would agree on both horses making a new top making me think imo they will both bounce next out without significant rest!

i try to start several conversational pieces on this forum having to do with this great game and my posts get deleted?  Many of the threads started and posts on this forum are not thorograph related.  Why do my posts get deleted?  especially when i relate to everything and get all my information from what i am purchasing and have purchased from you?  what the big deal?

hey miff i agree with what your are saying with tha performance of how the horse does from dirt to synthetic and how normal dirt horses usually run worse on synthetic but would an effort from dirt lets say an \"8\" to synthetic lets say a \"12\" back to dirt effort...wouldnt that horses pattern going into that dirt race from synthetic to dirt be effected?

my opinion is that he needed that one race (regardless of whatever the true situation is) last out here in the states.  i could definitly see a very nice race run by tomcito at the lexington stakes.  curious to see his ML

yea im saying that because of pace and that irregularly way of racing that he ran a new top but regardless i still think it could look like an \"effort non effort effort non effort\" type situation such as forefathers.  Puffed rice coated with chocolate is quite delicious.  il drink to that!

thats right!

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> belveondarockz Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > give me one horse that bounced off the walls in
> the derby as a
> > 3 year old to come back into top condition and
> be
> > able to compete in grade 1 races?
>
> Point Given  

well its kinda ironic that you say that..  because the ONLY example you can give me for happens to be a horse that bounced off a slop effort going into the derby and according to you and your opinion about war pass you said:

\"If you\'re that sold on that slop number, then hope for rain on May 3. Otherwise, as has been pointed out many times, slop numbers aren\'t as reliable relative to overall ability. Many horses throw out huge slop numbers that aren\'t duplicated over a fast strip. \"  u see any coincidence in this?

big brown donkey and company should wait this out! and make sure hes nice and ready to run %100... the worlds worst situation in anyone is wasted talent! plus war pass should smoke these guys in a few weeks imo!  =D

and running him in the derby is even a worse idea then if he has all those problems.  they just solve those problems and aim for the sky not for false dreams.

so i cant write about my race opinions before post time and i cant write about my opinion on strategies for the figures either?  geez ron paul is right we are getting our freedoms taken away from us in all ways.

your missing the point p dub!  whats so great about winning the roses?  history?!  i mean come on now..  its a business and the solid point im trying to make is that if they time this horse correctly he can win races such as the grade 1 belmont the grade 1 haskell and the grade 1 breeders cup classic.  and when running in those races, he will be in top condition and form with a great chance to win all of them!  if this horse bounces off the walls on derby day it can ruin his career!  look what happened to sinister minister, ballamy road, and all these other horses that bounced off the walls cause the owner/trainers decided that this was such an important race.  why chance that?! that would be horrible!  give me one horse that bounced off the walls in the derby as a 3 year old to come back into top condition and be able to compete in grade 1 races?

he looks like an \"O-X-O-X\" horse to me!

they should save big brown for the belmont stakes.. i mean lets look at history.. not only is there a LARGE percent chance for this horse to bounce but IF he doesnt and wins the derby..how can he possibly win the triple crown (something that hasnt happened in many years) off short rest?!?!?! imo itll be a guaranteed win at belmont sinced he will have plenty of rest. i mean who would give up on an opportunity of $600,000?!  that would be the management decision of the last 3 decades!  plus he will be all good to go for the summer and breeders cup CLASSIC!  this phony false hopes for the triple crown has to stop!  the best horse of all time (ghostzapper) didnt even run in any of the triple crown races and his breeding fees were $250,000 the first year!   lets use some brain here dutrow/owners!  and swig some of that stoli voooodka while you remain patient!

this only works if all horses in a race have 6 starts or more!  

imo i tend to notice if u take the average numbers of the last five races a horse runs...add the effective top ...then take the overall percentage of the trainer..use that percentage towards the number u come up with (with the last 5 and adding of the effective top) ... take the lowest number!  BAM!  ROI IS SUPER DEE DUPER as the citron swigs around the stomach when u run to the window and cash your ticket baby!!    example..  the last 5 races are 4, 5, 6 , 5, and 4..  the avg of those numbers is 24/5 = 8.8.. u take a trainer thats lets say %50 overall.. well your number is now 4.4!  compare that to the field and bam!  a horse is in the money oodles!  gl to all!  viva la swig!

i really hate the poly track!  imo this is a non effort and many horses in here can be excused for the performance they had in it today especially with those slow fractions!

looks like xchanger pooped the bed on the poly!  but i will def play him on the regular dirt surface when he races back to it!