Lengths behind at the stretch call really isn\'t a good indicator.  They said the same thing about the Derby but a deep closer like Unbridled had the lead by the 1/8 pole.  I think Strike the Gold did also and he was a deep, deep closer.  Realistically, if you are more than 5-6 lengths behind at ANY POINT in the race, you are a closer.

I don\'t think it answers anything.  Too many times in the past, I\'ve seen horses who are preparing to try a new surface for the first time and they fire a big workout and the media or fans are now convinced they automatically \"love\" the new surface.....and invariably they end up off the board.  Why take a low price on a horse who\'s completely unproven on real dirt?  I know Tiznow loved real dirt but its possible his offspring are better on synethics.

McPeek is always better 2nd time out and even better with 3rd time starters.

Jerry-

Is the bounce factor stronger following a strong race on soft turf?  I had never heard this before but I read a comment by James Quinn, who said that any horse coming off a strong race on soft turf (where the DRF track variant was at least 30) should be a definite bet against next time out. He used the recent Breeders Cup turf runners as an example and horses like Nobiz Like SHobiz and Nashoba\'s Key should be played against.  What is your take on the \"soft turf\" bounce?