I think Litfin is using the term \"par\" to mean average in this case.
Separate from any methodology used to create a figure.

shanahan Wrote:
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> barry abrams has a 3 YO running his 3rd race in 15
> days....4th in 24 dyas, and 5th in 41 days...I\'m
> not a trainer, but what the hell is he thinking?


Wow. He is working that horse. I notice Abrams is also the owner... I guess he feels the horse is sharp and healthy. Has a real chance here in the Affirmed.

shanahan Wrote:
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> maybe now...just maybe,  he\'ll get the respect he
> deserves.  he just was never right last year, but
> this is a healthy, improving horse.  Smartly
> managed.

Do you think he can run 10 furlongs ?

twoshoes Wrote:
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> See today\'s NY Post for Gomez\'s own take on this.
> In a nutshell, given the circumstances as they
> unfolded he had Hard Spun fairly relaxed with
> position to get first run and Curlin where he
> wanted him locked inside him and behind leaders.
> He said there was no response when he asked. From
> my own perspective Hard Spun looked a dead piece
> before he left the walking ring (did not make me
> happy as we were alive to him) and when Garrett
> asked the bag was empty. Nice horse, the Preakness
> probably put him over the top a little. He needs a
> rest.

Yea I just read that. It was unfortunate because Gomez says: \"I was in a great stalking position. The race was in my hands from that point on. At the half-mile pole, we\'re head and head for the lead, and I\'m waiting to press the \'go\' button. But when it came time to race for the money, there was nothing there.\"

According to his statement he believed it was \"great position\" to be head and head with two animals (Curlin and Rags to Riches) who have far superior closing kicks.

yikes! this game is hard to guess with sometimes!

I think Hard Spun realistically would have finished somewhere between a close up third and far off 5th no matter who or how he was ridden.

That premise aside ...  I think he deserves some bashing

here are my key points to the ride:


1. pre start) = Gomez decides not to ask HS out of the gate
2. pre start = Gomez should anticipate Prado about to take it wide into turn1
3. out of the gate = Gomez appears to react/anticipate well moving behind/inside of CPWest
4. prior to first turn = Gomez has both the rail and/or lead offered to him on a silver platter as Prado opens wide entering the turn
4A. = here Gomez makes a significant error by swinging back out widest of flight1 and turning down the pace on the rail
5. Turn1= Gomez appears to be doing a nice job of rating Hard Spun
6. Into Backstretch= Gomez misjudges Prado\'s pace OR is purposefully rating a very slow of a pace.
7. 4-6 furlongs= Gomez still does not allow Hard Spun to enter into his cruising-speed stride = this is about the point of no return
8. 6-8 furlongs= Hard Spun no longer has the OPPORTUNITY to gain a positional advantage from his talent of highcrusing stride
9. 8-10furlongs split= moving with the group as they mildly increase pace Gomez actually has Hard Spun at the fastest velocity he will reach in the Belmont Stakes(a mediocre 53.6 ft/s)
10. 10-12furlongs = Hard Spun is asked to out-kick Rags To Riches and Curlin from even terms. Gomez and Hard Spun finish 4th as Hard Spun is unable to out-kick the animals which posses the talent of a strong late closing kick. His final quarter is 5th fastest out of 7 horses.  

subjective conclusions:- Hard Spun did not appear to save any energy racing under a hold as opposed to breezing in his optimal natural high-cruising speed (1:11.5?? 1:12?). His pedigree advantage of the ability to cruise for a sustained time period was nullified by racing under a hold. HS gained no positional advantage(lead) during the first mile. HS did not appear to enjoy the last 2 furlongs. It was very hard to tell if HS was in worse form or if the tactics and possibly the distance affected his performance so significantly that his form appeared worse.There was a very good chance that Hard Spun\'s form wasn\'t at a new high. Gomez may have been given poor instructions and/OR has a poor understanding of the relative strengths and weaknesses of HS and would likely be a poor choice for future races.