As I see it, one of the most disturbing trends over the last decade or so has been the way experts in one subject, as well many others who are not experts in any subject, are willing to make authoritative sounding pronouncements on issues they know very little or nothing about, without doing even basic research. On this issue at least, now there's information and an opinion from someone who actually is an expert on the subject. Well done TGJB.

I'm not up to date on the nasal strip issue, but I do remember the long fight necessary before the industry finally gave in and disclosed whether a horse was running on Lasix, after taking (for almost two years, if memory serves) the bizarre position that such disclosure would only "confuse" bettors. At first glance, the issues certainly seem similar to someone who believes as a basic proposition in both full disclosure and that players are more than capable of deciding whether and how to use whatever information is disclosed.

Finally, perhaps you can correct me if I'm wrong hooper, but my understanding is that in Europe and most other non-lasix countries, horses can and regularly do train on Lasix, and that the only difference between us and them is that horses there cannot race on Lasix, which typically means it can't be administered within something like 72 hours of a race.

Excellent post sekrah which sums thing up nicely.

I was leaning toward using Dullahan for the reasons explained in my earlier post, but all I heard yesterday from the CD clockers was how poorly he\'s been doing at CD, as in changing leads at the wrong time, profusely sweating during gallops, etc., so he\'s off my ticket, which leaves me, by process of elimination, with Hansen, Rousing Sermon, and Daddy Nose Best.

Given the weather and his off/distance pedigree, I guess it makes sense to substitute TCI, but whether it\'s the fact that he beat me out of a big score in the Fla Derby or the fact that he seems to need a lead he isn\'t going to get, I\'m having trouble not thinking that he\'s one of those horses I\'d be using as insurance against the idea of feeling stupid if Calvin rides the rail and does it again.
 
So, again using the process of elimination, I\'ll probably use Gemologist for no reason other than my theory than until a horse loses, it\'s hard to say for sure how good he actually is.

Good Luck.

I mostly agree with your dope HP, with the exception of Hansen. No matter what the track condition is, I'm not sure the pace scenario helps Hansen, who I'm downgrading even more based on Welsch's report today that he was "rank, aggressive, and hard to handle during just a routine gallop."

For what it's worth, perhaps nothing, one of the things I look for when the horses in the Derby are this closely matched is how each horse has dealt with adversity, the theory being that most of the runners are likely to encounter some kind of trouble at some point in what is obviously a unique race. Of the 11 I've seen run in person, the ones I think both figure from a handicapping standpoint and have demonstrated that they can handle being roughed up some are Union Rags, Dullahan, and Daddy Nose Best.

If the odds cooperate, I'm going to concentrate my action on those three in the race itself, as well as the Oaks-Derby Double and the Oaks-Woodford-Derby Pk3.

The horse that intrigues me the most for the bottom rung of the exotics is Rousing Sermon, as he reminds me of Mula Gula, another Hollendorfer shipper who ran on the Derby undercard the year FuPeg won.  While Hollendorfer's numbers shipping to KY are high, if memory serves his numbers for Derby Day ships are astronomical, and it seems the less sense the horse makes—to me at least--the more live it is.

From someone who couldn\'t have been more wrong about the odds or how the early pace would play out, Tg\'s analysis certainly was excellent from start to finish. With the slow fractions, for most of the race I really thought Reveron, when he didn\'t get the lead, was going to get first jump and light up the toteboard.

While the place price helped, being too stubborn to even use TCI when I saw the exacta paid $250 seemed exceptionally stupidly in retrospect.

I understand the overall case for Take Charge Indy who, after scratching out of the Tampa Bay Derby, may very well have to win today to guarantee a spot in the big race. With Calvin up, it seems likely on paper that TCI should get to the rail, but I'll be very surprised if TCI is on the lead early since, as the explanation with race shapes points out, one of the biggest difficulties in trying to project how much speed a particular horse is likely to show is that it often depends on tactical decisions by the jockey. My best guess is that based on what happened the last time he rode the horse, Calvin may very well conclude that he moved too soon, and I'm therefore thinking it's more likely, with the change of equipment, that Reveron or one of the longshots which have actually been on the lead at the end of the first quarter will be in front early.

It's also interesting to note that although there was only horse ahead of TCI early in his last race, a 24-1 shot that ended up losing by more than 27 lengths, TCI was nonetheless three wide around the first turn. Putting that information together with how TCI ran when he broke from the one hole and was forced to run on the rail in his CD race has me wondering if perhaps TCI is the kind of horse which does not necessarily like being inside of other horses.

My bottom line is that it all adds up to an awful lot of open questions for a horse which is only 5-1 on the ML, and will probably go off lower than that.

I couldn't find a link to the final results, but some of you may know or know of third place finisher Bob Rubin, a good and successful handicapper and sports bettor from Baltimore.

Because he's from Durango, Co, I'm guessing a far lesser number know wire to wire winner Bob Gregory, who pocketed more than $300k. However, if want to hear an interesting and inspiring story, Bob's scheduled to be interviewed by Steve Byk this morning at 10 a.m.:http://www.thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=22&Itemid=38

In 2010, Bob qualified in the first contest he ever entered and finished a fast closing second in the NHC.  Between that contest and his triumph this weekend, Bob was able to overcome a very serious brain tumor, which is obviously in and of itself quite remarkable. His approach and attitude throughout that ordeal is one of the reasons I consider Bob in the top tier of those I've been fortunate enough to get to know through our great game.

I didn't enter any contests the first five years and have been lucky enough to qualify six of the last eight, although my biggest "achievement" is being in the very small group of players who have three top twenty finishes.

That reminds me that I'm pretty sure Paul's sixth this year makes him the first player to ever finish in the top ten more than once.

But enough about me and enough about Paul.

It might seem counterintuitive, but if you think through next year's major format changes carefully, I'm pretty sure you'll agree with my assessment that they should drastically reduce or maybe even eliminate the biggest problem you had the year you qualified and, if memory serves, were in contention after the first day.  

Besides, one of TI's biggest attractions is something I wasn't previously familiar with but now believe that everyone should see at least once: bikini bull riding.

Congrats indeed to Mike on a great win based on what I can only describe as an incredibly ballsy gamble in GG 9th, the very last race of the contest.  If you want to see for yourself how close and exciting the finish was, it's worth taking a look at the reply or chart of the 5.5f mcl race to watch the come from last, win by less than a nose in the final stride 3-1 winner which gave Mike his $1 win and an additional $850k.

I can certainly understand saving a bullet for the finale, but with that much on the line it took a good deal of courage to take a chance that the odds weren't going to drop to 5/2 after the gate opens, or that the favorite would run second and cut the place price, since either possibility probably produces a payoff that isn't enough to overtake the unfortunate leader, who obviously experienced a very tough loss.

Assuming I did this right, half way down the page of this link is a link to a complete list of the final standings: http://www.drf.com/events/2012-nhc-13-las-vegas

In addition to Mike's big win, TG perhaps deserves even bigger congrats for Paul Sherman's Tour Championship and 6th place finish in the NHC. In addition to collecting $75k for finishing first, second, or third at ten different contests throughout the year, and giving the agent representing the carrier which underwrote the $2 million bonus some very anxious moments late in the contest, at the banquet Paul was honored for being one of only four players who have qualified 10 times. With all due respect to Mike's incredible achievement, one could make the case that in addition to having the best contest year ever, Paul is the true handicapper of the year.

There are always quite a number of interesting player stories, and this link to a pre-contest ESPN piece covers most of them: http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/7502821/horseplayers-takes-center-stage

As usual, many others took place during the event, including the player who flew 17 hours from New Zealand to compete and qualify in the last chance contest Wednesday, the player who returned $5900 cash another player left at a table near the betting windows, and the Luck screening and cocktail parties with the entire cast, which made the trip much more fun than usual for Maddy. Perhaps Roger or one of the other TG players I talked at the screening could provide some of the juicy details.  

Last but certainly not least, the real purpose of this long winded post is to thank JB and the entire TG staff for both providing sheets for and incurring the cost of sending a representative to the NHC, which presumably generate as much gratitude and goodwill from others as they do from me.

I sure do miss being there, so you might be on to something, but what I was thinking was that there might be other computer-challenged players who would be interested in seeing how their handicapping comrades were doing.

http://www.ntra.com/leaderboard/nhcxi/

It\'s not always easy figuring out who said what to whom when everyone is covering their behind, but while there\'s plenty of blame to go around, my bottom line continues to be that the final responsibility rests with the trainer who, given this incident and what happened with Quality Road, now seems to me to be a lot more suited to a position like a CEO of a hair gel company than any job where being a true horseman is required.

However, the woman who owns the horse apparently doesn\'t think the trainer had anything to do with what happened: http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/statement-on-behalf-of-candy-debartolo-owner-of-life-at-ten/

Getting a book published by Random House is itself an amazing achievement, but only a select few of "the best of the best" of even the books published by the major houses are reviewed in the New York Times, which is the goal of most serious authors. That honor is not without stress, however, as only the top experts in particular fields do the reviews, which can be brutal. It was therefore understandable that Christiane was experiencing both cautious optimism and a little trepidation at the Spa last week in anticipation of today's paper.

It is rare, and maybe unique, when a Times' review describes a historical story as "enticing and extraordinary." (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/12/books/review/Wheatcroft-t.html?_r=1&ref=books)

Pass on my personal congratulations to Christiane on reaching a truly remarkable milestone that all but a very few authors can only dream about.

I don't know about Hong Kong, but in Japan the horse's weight is included in the pps and substantial changes are thought to be an important handicapping factor. And, as everybody knows, most trainers assume something is seriously wrong when a horse starts to lose its appetite.

The telecast either wasn't on or I didn't see it at Kee, but I also wouldn't be at all surprised if Donna Barton Brothers, a very successful former jockey and wife of trainer Frank Brothers who I believe still exercises horses, would notice that SS lost that much weight, as she's very knowledgeable and has been around horses her entire life due to the fact that her mother Patti Barton was a tough and trail blazing jockey who rode on the Midwest circuit back in the 70s.

This probably falls into the category of information many of you either don't need and maybe don't even want to know, but seeing the name reminded me of a coincidence two years ago when Patti Barton---and about 75 of her friends—sat next to me at Kee, and I learned something from her that I'd been wondering about for a number of years, namely what's up with the large groups of older ladies who seem to be just about everywhere and are easy to pick out because they all wear the same purple dresses and red hats. The way she described it was basically a "girls just want to have fun" social society for women of a "certain age."  In other words, except for the fancy clothes, the Red Hat Society, as its called, is kind of like a distaff version of the fun loving geezers who never miss a day at the OTB.

And those good GP races will presumably represent a large percentage of the races which are part of the first in a number of free contests offering numerous NHC qualifying spots to those who have paid the modest $100 fee it costs to join the Tour. Details at: http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=other&id=30638§ion=races

But that's not what prompted the post. Check your email the next couple of days, as it appears I'll be headed to the Sunshine State in the very near future.

I meant to mention in my previous post that I enjoyed seeing and talking to both Roger and Bill.

In addition to Bryan Wagner having the best contest year anyone's ever had, I doubt anyone will disagree with my assessment that one of your other good customers, who never seems to get mentioned in these discussions, has the best overall contest record over the last 11 years. In addition to qualifying nine times and finishing third last year, Committee member Paul Shurman qualified twice on the same day, which to my way of thinking is akin to hitting for the cycle where the final hit is a walk off grand slam. And, as you know, Paul also has an excellent cash game.

You had no way of knowing this, but while I'm still on the Committee, I stepped down as Chairman in early December. Coincidentally, it was right after our discussion with Brian and Judy at the BC that I asked Mike Mayo if he would be willing to take over, since after many years of doing almost all of my volunteer work in this industry I reached the conclusion that perhaps whatever meager talents I do have might be put to use by an organization trying to help the less fortunate.

So far so good, as I'm very excited about and can't wait to start the new gig I landed yesterday reading newspaper and magazine articles on a radio station for blind people, even though the operator seemed somewhat vague and non-committal when I suggested the possibility of spicing things up a bit by adding racing news and publications to the broadcast.