Play against Bernardini in his next race then with a neg 2 and certain short odds?

I\'m not sure what you are talking about?  Please clarify?

imailin, you are absolutely correct.. I\'m stunned at the number of naive people around here who do not believe a vet would lie to protect someone, and who think everything is always on the up and up.

Anyone have any idea?

Thanks for the analysis.

Side Cut Halo is the 4th betting choice among the track handicapper with a 6-1 morning line.

Tuesday May 23rd - Indiana Downs, Race 1, MSW13.9K, 35yo


#2 You Got It, 5yo, Unraced 2yo, 3 races 3yo, 29,27,27, 2 year layoff to May 5th, Ran 17.. 2 1/2 weeks rest into today

#4 Kiris Fee, 5yo, 31 top 2yo(2 races), 23 top 3yo(4 races), 24 top 4yo(12 races), Opened 5yo campaign with 19 on Apr 22, came back in two weeks on May 8th and ran 21.. 2 weeks rest into today

#6 Aircutter, 4yo, Unraced 2yo, Unraced 3yo, Career debut on May 3rd ran 19.. 2 1/2 weeks rest into her 2nd career start today

#7 Side Cut Halo, 4yo, Unraced 2yo, 27 top 3yo (5 races), Ran 25 early January, 3 month layoff to April 21st, ran 23, 2 weeks rest to May 6th, ran 19.. 2 1/2 weeks rest into today


Which of these patterns is the strongest for these lightly raced, older maidens and why?  None of the trainers really distinguish themselves from one another (5-12% winners)

Would love some input on this.


Thanks!!

I\'ve watched horses my entire life and noted it myself in his post parade.  That DID NOT look like a horse that was ready to go.  He looked VERY uptight and uncomfortable.  Busting through the gate comfirmed it.  

\"Bad Step\" my ass.  I personally suspect that Prado suspected something wrong with the horse.  He REPEATEDLY was looking at his right hind throughout the post parade.  He looked at it again when he was being returned to the gate after the breakthrough.  There\'s almost no doubt in my mind that Prado knew something wasn\'t kosher but didn\'t have the stones to say something and set off pandemonium of outrage with the connections, spectators at Pimlico, and NBC.

Any other horse on any other day, Prado would of spoken up and the horse would of been scratched.  I truly believe that.

Like Now pairs up his 2 and gets a ground saving trip

Hemingway\'s Key finally breaks his two year old top of 5 and moves forward a few points with a ground saving trip to boot.

Greeley\'s Legacy pairs up his 2.

Brother Derek with just two weeks rest off -0 bounces 3 points and is forced 3w around both turns.

Barbaro, breaking his 6 week race pattern and coming off a scorching top, bounces sharply 4-6 points and is forced to race 3-4w around the tight turns of Pimlico

Sweetnorthernsaint moves forward off his 4 and closes in on pairing up his top.

Bernardini bounces.

Diabolical finally moves forward off his 4.



Final 1/16th.. Barbaro, Brother Derek give way.. It\'s a 5-way to the finish, Like Now trying to go wire to wire, Sweetnorthernsaint coming up through on the rail.  Hemingway\'s Key, Greeley\'s Legacy, and Diabolical are charging hard from the outside..

And I\'m holding the 1,3,4,7,9 boxed Superfecta ticket.


BOX CARS!!!!!!!!!



Remember Brother Derek backers..  He may have had TONS of trouble in the Derby but he still put up a MONSTER 0 Negative effort that at 3-1, has no business running another one like that off just 2 weeks.  I think BD is a terrible pick in this race.  Terrible decision by his connections to run him in this race, absolutely terrible.

Ran a 5 as a 2yo in Mid-December.  Bounced back to 14, steadily returned to 6, coming in off 4 weeks rest.

Should get a favorable trip at the #3 post with Rose onboard.  Is it unrealistic to think this horse can run a new top to 2 or 3 and fill out the bottom of a superfecta or triple?  Those numbers would put him right with Like Now and Greeley\'s Galaxy who are getting alot of ink on here.

Jerry?  How long does it usually take a 3yo to set a new top after violently reacting to such a brilliant 2yo number like a 5?

In the Preakness Analysis, it has Like Now as a exotic contender but Hemingway\'s Key as \"wasn\'t running that fast\" and writting him off as a noncontender.  Hemingway\'s Key finished 7 1/2 lengths back of Like Now in the Lexington with a bump start, 3w-3w, and \"6-7w into lane\" and Rose didn\'t even push him the last 1/8th when it was clear he had no shot of hitting the board while the whip was out on Like Now who had a rail trip the whole way.


Zito\'s removing the blinkers on him (he ran his 5 as 2yo without blinkers).   Remember, this is the guy who dropped Birdstone on us.  I think people are overlooking this horse\'s chance to hit the board.

Any super ticket with Barbaro on top is a terrible underlay IMO.

I would make this wager as well.

No way Brother Derek goes off at 3-1.  NO. WAY.

To Jerry, and other experts who are up late and may be interested (it\'s still in the Redboard room)

5/13/06 Charlestown, Race 2.  Look at #2 Christy T\'s 3-year old campaign.  She opened the campaign with 6 races, spaced evenly by 21-28 days.. 28, 31, 29, 29, 29, and finally a 31 in the 3rd week of June.  The horse came back the very next week, 7 days later and ran a 21?! followed by 20,23,23,22 over her next 5 races, spaced out approximately 10-17 days each.


What\'s the explanation for this sudden move?  The only explanation that I can think of is that the trouble in the May race masked development and that 29 could of really been a 24-26 if not for being taken up (tu)?  Or perhaps running races sooner back to back sets off developement? rather than hurting them?  Is that the answer or is this some cowtrack trainer pulling shananigans?
 

Just curious about this.  Really trying to improve my pattern recognization.


Thanks!
Josh

What exactly do you mean by trainer\'s game?

Hi I\'m very new to Thorograph.  Just watched the intro video and am now giving a shot at my first card.  If there any experts (Jerry perhaps?) that has tomorrow\'s Delaware Park card, can you lend me your advice on how I sorted these first couple races out.


1st Race
=========

#1 Arcades Echo (3-1 ML) - 2YO debut of 13 would be good to win here.  Should improve with 2nd off layoff from the 18 two weeks ago.  My prediction: 14-16, Major contender

#2 Que Delicia (2-1 ML) - Steady advance from 23 to 16 past three races.  Perhaps coming back too soon?  Advance came in routes and now she returns to a sprint with only 2 weeks rest?  4th race in 8 week, another strong forward move seems unlikely. My prediction: 15-17, Questionable sprint ability.  Throwout at the price.

#3 Twotoesrosie (8-1 ML) - Would need to improve tremendously off first two starts to contend here.  Don\'t see it in the bloodlines to happen.  My prediction: 24-26, Non-contender

#4 Romantic Book (4-1 ML) - 2nd race after three month layoff. Figures to challenge her previous top.  Prediction: 16-18, Carrying extra weight vs most field, maybe put her at the bottom of a trifecta ticket.

#5 Queen Ballado (6-1 ML) - Two 18\'s early in the year followed by a vet scratch, a 2 1/2 month layoff, and a bad X?   Seems a couple races away from pairing or exceeding her top yet.  Prediction: 22-24, Non contender.

#6 Alleged Moon (8-1 ML) - 16 top late in her 2 year old campaign.  Paired it up in March after a 20 in February.  Coming back off another 20 two weeks ago.  Good bloodlines suggest more potential in this horse.  Very likely pair up here and possible new top.  One negative: Carrying the same 6 extra pounds that RB is.  Prediction: 15-17, Strong contender, especially at the price.

#7 Splashin Cash (10-1 ML) - 1st time starter.  Pedigree and trainer doesn\'t indicate anything special likely here.


Plays
======
Win tickets on Alleged Moon and Arcades Echo at anything better than 6-1.

Exacta and Trifecta with Alleged Moon and Arcades Echo on top of the ticket.  Que Delicia and Romantic Book at the bottom.



2nd Race
=========

#1 Simply Valiant (3-1 ML) - Nice pattern with Pair-X-Pair with 4 weeks rest here.  Should move forward off that number with the inside post here.  Prediction: 13-15

#2 Hennie\'s Melody (6-1 ML) - Decent numbers with 13 top as a 3yo. Coming off a 2 month layoff after vet scratch is worrisome.  Trainer change looks negative as well for 1st race out.  Looks like a possible X.  Prediction: 18-20.

#3 Angels Encore (4-1 ML) - Good improving pattern.  A new top looks possible here.  Would of preferred more rest perhaps than just 2 weeks.  Prediction: 15-17.

#4 It\'s Obvious (15-1 ML) - Numbers relatively unimpressive vs rest of the field.  2nd race off long layoff, he definently has a good chance of approaching a new top in this one, but carrying 6 extra pounds and not likely good enough.  Prediction: 19-21

#5 Surprise Gala (10-1 ML) - 1st time starter.  Very solid pedigree.  Good trainer.  Carrying 5 pounds less than most of the rest.  Unlikely to win first time out but I think she\'s usable in the bottom of the exotics.  Prediction: 17-19.

#6 Millionairess (2-1 ML) - Should run a new top here, but at this price I\'ll pass on any win bets.  Prediction: 15-17.

#7 I\'m So Anxious (8-1 ML) - Another 1st time starter with excellent bloodlines and good trainer.  Fill out the bottom of the exotics again.  Prediction: 17-19.

#8 Dell Reef (15-1 ML) - Lightly raced 4yo.  Should set a new top here off the long rest, but carrying extra weight.  Prediction: 17-19.


Plays
======
Difficult race to find a good wager on.  Simply Valiant seems to be the best of the bunch and probably a win bet is in order if she remains at 3-1 or better.  It\'s a virtual crapshoot behind her.  3,5,6,7,8 are all capable of finding themselves in the money.  Perhaps keying the 1/3,5,6,7,8/3,5,6,7,8 for $1 ticket and hoping a couple of those long shots sneak in would be the best way to go?

 
3rd Race
=========

#1 Downtown Jim (2-1) - Steady and consistant improving pattern that appears to have gotten too much respect from the morning oddsmakers. Major underlay  Prediction: 17-19.

#2 Flashing Flame (8-1) - Very solid looking horse, however the trainer change seems to be a negative though for 1st time out (Trainer 2 for 85 1st time with new horse).  An off race seems to be in order here, but he definently has value at this price at the bottom of exotic tickets.  Prediction: 17-19.

#3 Dawns Sunrise (8-1) - Non contender does not appear quick enough at all.  Even though he\'s coming off a new top of 24, he has a long way to go to contend in this one and there\'s no signs of hope in the breeding for a sudden move. Ridiculously overpriced at 8-1  Prediction: 22-24.  Throwout.

#4 Ghost Bar (6-1) - Appears to be circling back around after that great 14 in Gulfstream in late March.  Figures to run a very strong race here and should have excellent value.  Breeding indicates a horse with plenty of growth. Prediction: 14-16.  Major contender.

#5 Peru (3-1) - Tricky horse. 2nd off long layoff.  Incredibly impressive 11 in his 2yo debut. Top Trainer/Top Jockey Combo.  A definent contender.  Should improve in 2nd race off layoff.  Prediction: 14-16.  Major contender

#6 Mario Flowers (4-1) - Possible 0-2-X here? (actually 0-3-X).  Definently one to keep an eye on.  Figures to run a very strong race here.  Prediction: 14-16.  Major contender

#7 Crafty Scott (10-1) - how about an 0-4-X?  Ran in the teens as a very young 2yo in May.  Opened this year with a 15, followed by a 19 and 27.  Trainer/Jockey combo is very distasteful for this one, but at this price one
would be a fool to leave out of the exotics.  Prediction: 15-17.  Contender.


Plays
======
Interesting race with plenty of wagering opportunity.  The morning line favorite appears he will have a very difficult task even cracking the board here.  A 4,5,6,7 exacta box could have some value.  Win bet on Crafty Scott, if as I suspect, he climbs above 20-1.  Perhaps a win bet on Ghost Bar above 10-1.





Okay, Experts.  Thoughts on my analysis??  Please, be BRUTALLY honest.  I want to learn the trends and patterns and finding winners!

I would GREATLY appeciate anyone elses analysis and thoughts on these three races.



Thank you so much
Josh