Bob and John Race: 24.2 48.4 112 136.2 149
High Limit Race: 23 47.1 111.2 136.2 149
I think there\'s a pattern here:
a) The final times that tend to come up on the fast side compared to the rest of the day also tend to be accompanied by *moderately* slow paces and generally uncompetitive race developments. That was clearly the case in the B&J race.
b) The final times that tend to come up on the slow side also tend to have very fast paces and competitive race developments that wipe out all the contenders (the 2005 Derby) or extremely slow paces (many turf races).
*Perhaps* Beyer is overrating High Limit\'s race a bit. The horses behind him are not all that good this season (at least yet) and those that set the pace are cheapsters that dueled each other off.
*Perhaps* Bob and John ran a faster race than recently, but mostly because of the easy circumstances and not because of any special improved ability. Perhaps he wouldn\'t have run as fast against faster fractions and more competitive competition.
*Perhaps* (stress perhaps) the track didn\'t change speeds and both figures should be *about* a 105.
105 would tell us that High Limit improved in his second start off a layoff, Ice Cole and Acexecutive dueled each other off, Giacomo came back short but not that bad, and Greely\'s Galaxy is a one hit wonder.
105 would tell us that B&J etc... imnproved their recent figures partly because they are lightly raced horses and partly because the early pace was moderate and uncompetitive but not so slow it hurt them like in a turf race with an extremely slow pace. That left all of them with more in the tank for the last 4 furlongs than a more typical race.
High Limit Race: 23 47.1 111.2 136.2 149
I think there\'s a pattern here:
a) The final times that tend to come up on the fast side compared to the rest of the day also tend to be accompanied by *moderately* slow paces and generally uncompetitive race developments. That was clearly the case in the B&J race.
b) The final times that tend to come up on the slow side also tend to have very fast paces and competitive race developments that wipe out all the contenders (the 2005 Derby) or extremely slow paces (many turf races).
*Perhaps* Beyer is overrating High Limit\'s race a bit. The horses behind him are not all that good this season (at least yet) and those that set the pace are cheapsters that dueled each other off.
*Perhaps* Bob and John ran a faster race than recently, but mostly because of the easy circumstances and not because of any special improved ability. Perhaps he wouldn\'t have run as fast against faster fractions and more competitive competition.
*Perhaps* (stress perhaps) the track didn\'t change speeds and both figures should be *about* a 105.
105 would tell us that High Limit improved in his second start off a layoff, Ice Cole and Acexecutive dueled each other off, Giacomo came back short but not that bad, and Greely\'s Galaxy is a one hit wonder.
105 would tell us that B&J etc... imnproved their recent figures partly because they are lightly raced horses and partly because the early pace was moderate and uncompetitive but not so slow it hurt them like in a turf race with an extremely slow pace. That left all of them with more in the tank for the last 4 furlongs than a more typical race.