Menu

Show posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Show posts Menu

Messages - holdthedoor

#1
Ask the Experts / Re: Brother Derek
January 16, 2006, 11:53:43 AM
Can\'t agree about the pace. BD appeared to be going easy on the lead in that small relatively paceless field. The 3rd quarter was just as fast as the first two, which indicates the first half was slow because most races tend to slow down late and not pick up on the turn later. It looked that way from appearances too. They picked it up and SW was working real hard to get into contention on the turn. The rest of the day\'s route fractions relative to their final times all indicate a slow first half for BD. SW didn\'t have much of a chance against that high quality of an opponent given that trip. He will be sharper next out and will beat BD next time even if he\'s not.
#2
Ask the Experts / Re: Brother Derek
January 16, 2006, 08:05:42 AM
The pace for the first 1/2 was on the slow side for high quality horses at 1 mile. Then it picked up strongly. A 23 3/5 3rd 1/4 followed by a 12 3/5 next 1/8 is moving really well in the latter stages of a 1 mile race. That the final 1/8 was a little weaker isn\'t a shock given that hot middle. Both horse rans well, but Stevie had little chance to run down another high quality opponent given that pace set up. I\'ll take Stevie in the rematch if the pace setup looks even honest.
#3
Ask the Experts / Re: ROTW
January 15, 2006, 08:20:15 AM
This conversation about the CA figures is missing the point of the race.

You couldn\'t tell a thing about the CA figures based on the result of yesterday\'s race.

The Malibu Stakes was contested on one of the most speed favoring racetracks you will ever find. Horses like Greeley\'s Galaxy and Unbridled Energy had no chance  that day. The issue was how close to their best form they might be and had they made any developmental progress from their early 3YO form to now. You couldn\'t tell a thing about that from the Malibu because of the bias and layoffs.

With any of the typical development it was pretty obvious that fairly solid 3YO stakes horses like UE and GG would be far past the limited allowance runners they were facing yesterday using anybody\'s figures or no figures at all.

The result didn\'t tell us a thing about the numbers. If anything, the fact that they didn\'t dominate the field given some of the trips tells us the CA horses are not all that bad or that UE and GG are not all that good yet.

The prices in the race reflected the uncertainty about their condition, not any doubts about speed figures or who would be best if these lightly race 3YOs showed up in top shape.