Used to spend alot of time in Hong Kong.
The South China Morning Post gave weights of horses at time of entry.
It would be interesting to know what Rachel Alexandre and Mine that Bird
weighed Derby weekend, Preakness weekend and now.

Can you explain race shapes track variants etc a little bit.

Checklist is 4 lengths quicker than Yano 21.4 (2/14) ??

Thanks

Had a friend who won the World Series of Handicapping at Penn National in the 1970/80\'s/ On the last race he bet $1000 win on every horse in the para mutual pool (except his contest choice) and his entire bankroll on his choice (who would have been the favorite).  His choice won and he won $50,000. It was a Penn National only contest using live odds.



The NTRA/Las Vegas (racing world) needs either 2 formats or 1 that all contests agree to;

1. Handicapping contests
$2 Win/Place  
Higher buy in/fee
3-4 tracks
20 races
10 races mandatory
10 optional

2. Gambling contests
contest buy in/fee
3 tracks a day limited rules

Right now there is a huge conflict.  

Like Poker most have become a gambling event and not a skill contest.

It should be both.

The results at Red Rocks were nonsense.

How much would it cost to have you pick the Derby in front of a camera tomorrow;
(it could probably be collectively raised)

Definitive 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th; with specific wagering strategies.

Some of your general handicapping posts have some value.

YOUR PICK POSTS ARE NONSENSE. 4 horses, 5 horses.

Every novice handicapper in the world had either the 8 or 11/ over many contenders tomorrow.
 
Give us how you are going to make money chalk/Derby.

It has become increasingly difficult to count on a hidden 6-1 or 8-1 shot since Beyer\'s have made the Form and Thorograph has become a more widely used tool.

But many times horses hold their \"hidden\" odds in multi-race wagers. Pick 3\'s and 4\'s don\'t many times don\'t reflect the \'deflation\" that single race pools do.

This may not be the greatest everyday example because multi race wagers are almost always strong vs. parleys on big race days--but the late Pick 4 Saturday is an example;

Kip Deville      8.2/1---Thorograph most likely winner
Ginger Punch     4.5/1---1 of 3 Thorograph contenders
English Channel  3.0/1---obvious and Thorograph contender
Curlin           4.4/1---obvious and Thorograph most likely winner

$1 parley $ 546.48
$1 pick 4 $1506.50

Thorograph solidified my give or take position on Kip Deville, so I thank them for that analysis.

On the second topic of a ROTW contest I would suggest 2 year long contests for 2008;

$1000 buy in year long W/P/S contest with 5/3/1 points awarded each week.  
Winner payment 60/30/10 of pot.

Free contest with same points system open to any registered customer who spent (your cutoff xxx) in 2007; where winner gets free Thorograph for 12 months, place 6 months, show 3 months.

Your only headache is the accounting; hopefully there\'s enough interest and potential publicity to make it worth hiring a guy to manage.

Lcfjr3

This was obviously a terrific selection because except for the hard campaign this horse fit.

Would it be possible to identify the Analysis selector before purchase?

I don\'t buy analysis often but I have for contests to try to shortcut 5/6 tracks and can say that some have been really well done; making you rethink or even select the Thoro odds horse.  

Other times it seems that the selections are made in the taxi on the way to work. Play at 5/2 or more and the horse goes off 6/5.  Or a hopeless 1 figure horse play 8-1 rounding to form.

And in my limited analysis purchase experiences it seems that there are 4/5 \"live\" plays or the selections are a washout.  So I don\'t buy unless in a contest.

If I could identify someone who finds horses similar to my selection style it could mean more business from customers who don\'t always have time to review all the graphs.

Lcfjr3

I couldn\'t even tell you the

The Archives on Thorograph if studied are as potentially valuable as anything you can get for free.  

Start with;      
Sunny\'s Halo  11 2-year old starts 2 3-year old starts
Swale 7/4
Spend a Buck 8/3
Alysheba 7/3
Winning Colors 2/4 a mismanaged freak Still won Derby
Sunday Silence 3/3
Unbridled 5/4
Srike the Gold 3/3
Lil E Tee 4/4
Sea Hero 7/3
Go For Gin 5/4
Thunder Gulch 6/3
Grindstone 2/3  note his 2 yr-old races in early summer had training bottom
Silver Charm 3/3
Real Quiet 9/3
Charismatic  7/7
Fu Peg  1/4  note not asked to bust it 1st time out
Monarchos 2/4
Funny Cide 3/3
Smarty Jones 2/4 regular spacing (3-4 wk) from December on
Giacomo 4/3
 
Not one of the above asked to bust it out 1st/2nd time at Saratoga/CD/SA/Holly
and they either had a very solid 2-yr old bottom or where consistently starting as 3-yr olds.

Or asked to play catch up like Curlin.


Every one of these horses moved forward on a logical progression with incremental moves forward with occasional slight set back.  They were not asked to bust it early.  

Afleet Alex is in my opinion the 1st example of a horse asked to bust it early and survived to do great things (most do not), but he pitched at the 1/16th pole in the Derby.  

Pletcher asks his horses to bust as 2-yr olds.  
Check all his Derby horse patterns (there in the archives). 2-2-2-2-2- starting to figure it out as Any Given Saturday and Sam P have a better pattern.  

The point to all this is Carl Nafzger has had a handful of good 2-year olds in the last 17 years. They all won the Derby or Travers.  Pletcher has had 50+
$ million 2-year olds in the last 10 years.  Plus xxx $500K etc.

Not a one won.  And by shear numbers he may win this year and I look foolish. But the odds are against it.    

Look at Asmussen and O\'Neill\'s (not just Derby starters, but the crop of 2007 candidates) Great Hunter is an example of a horse been given his space to both earn money as a 2-yr old and grow.

You don\'t take horses to the Derby wearing Bar shoes.  

Street Sense
Great Hunter
1/5 Pletcher

No Biz reminds me of First Samurai.

Big, talented, erratic. The kid who is the star of the 7th-8th grade football/basketball team but never get\'s any better.

Tagg has a tendency to pump some speed into his dirt (not turf) horses as does Brothers.
9 times out of 10 `17 hands animals need to run in the clear at their own pace.
(Easy Goer at Belmont vs Sunday Silence at Churchill/Gulfstram).  Pumping speed into horses almost always stunts their long term development (past 3 yr. old classics).  

No Biz bearing in is immaturity. Tagg could take care of it with special bits if he wanted. Bearing in/out for the 1st time is a warning sign for horses who have run 10 times and all the sudden. No Biz has done this since go.

As did Samurai.

Tagg said Saturday was perfect, but if he can pull this off it will be by far his best job. He is no longer under the radar.

Illegal meds are race day/betting problems. On various levels they have been part of the game throughout the 20th/21st century.  Racing would be MUCH better without them but it will survive with them because betting egos will always think they know who is doing what--and most of the time it can be patterned
(thorograph charts).    

But steroids (not illegal) are killing the breed. Forget about how Lyle Alzado imploded.  Just look how Lenny Dykstra, Brady Anderson,lost power as quickly as they had gained it.

Lure, Cigar, War Emblem infertile. Grade 1 mares having trouble getting pregnant and delivering.

Decades of imbreeding, abusing top stallions, pushing 2-yr. olds to sales, roiding yearlings and 2-yr. olds for sales, overracing \"precocious 2-yr. olds\" has taken a relatively sturdy breed in the 1920-1950 era and rendered them sticks of dynamite. It\'s only a matter of time before they go off and break down.

Does anyone really think Ghostzapper was faster than Secretariat??

When you get a Grade 1 horse, owner\'s have no choice.  

The big money owner\'s (Godolphin, Shadwell, Coolmore) know what they have, if they race at 4 they are significantly reducing fertility prospects and of course increasing the possibility of break down. Discreet Cat will never be seen again after Dubai.

Smaller owner\'s (Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex) want the thrill of running at 4 but after fatigue and minor injury set in they would be fiscally irresponsible to take the risk of coming back to the races, which is why there is always a period of time when they come back on track and workout and a Servis and a Ritchey properly convince the owner to sell, even though they are profiting.

It\'s a miracle that Perfect Drift has been a competitive Grade 1 horse for 5 years.  Even as a gelding under an assumed  moderate steroid diet, 5 years in this day and age is incredible.  Yet Murray Johnson has not picked up one big money owner that I am aware of.

They all come to Frankel, Biancone, Dutrow; Pletcher and the other Lukas assistants.  WHY??

Illegal meds and roids, win a Grade 1 or 2 and poof.  

Steroid\'s is causing the 4 horse Grade 1 fields, in conjunction with illegal race day meds. Until BREEDERS, BREEDERS, BREEDERS who control the game want to do something about it we\'ll continue to watch Jockey Club Gold Cups with jockeys frantically looking for competition.

They don\'t understand who the consumer of their product is.  Walmart does. McDonalds does. Microsoft does.

NTRA does not.  Breeder\'s Cup does not. Originally thought Stronach did, but don\'t think he does.

Breeder\'s only think about the sale. That\'s not the consumer. The pinhooker is only a trader.  The program owner is vitally important but he is not the consumer.

BETTORS...GAMBLERS...BETTORS...GAMBLERS...BETTORS...GAMBLERS...BETTORS.

Without the bettors ands gamblers what do they have??

   





 

Lcfjr3

Any truth  to the rumor that Pletcher\'s horses will be running under Dave Monaci\'s name in the Northeast??

This races runs through Pomeroy. He\'s a poster boy for move up trainers. Last years Vanderbilt 43.8 quarter for the Frenchman (asked to leave Europe and Hong Kong) is quicker than this group wants.  Broke last in the Vosburgh. Second time out for south Florida move up. As they used to say in the old days, HERE FOR A REASON NOT FOR THE SEASON. Can also rate via 04 King\'s Bishop and OK back wet.
10-1 would trump his 3.7-1 05 and 4.7-1 04 scores.
LCF    

The sheet for Roanoke\'s Best shows bore out/eased in his 7/26/06 race yet he got beat a neck in the DRF.  Did not see race.  Was he eased before wire or is there maybe error somewhere.