....that the best 3yo in training, Analyze It, won\'t be running in the Derby. He has been on my radar screen since his debut, and the first horse since Barbaro that I feel is capable of winning the Derby, then put on a plane and try Epson!


Call me crazy....(I am!)

just an impossible race....1-2-6-8

Always Dreaming hurt most by the draw; will be sent earlier than normal. IWC is fine, and PJ got the draw I wanted. McC will get overbet, and PJ will be a nice price!

The TRIP factor is affected dramatically as field size increases; I am speaking from both a race quality AND betting standpoint.

Look, I play more grass than dirt because A) field size is greater on average, and B) better mutual potential. All I am saying is that for our greatest race, there is a point of diminishing returns, from BOTH a racing and wagering viewpoint.

Just look at English racing; extremely large fields in wide straights that often break into 2 or three groups, run tactically. Just look at how our grass stakes racing has changed to mostly even-paced early and fast final fractions.

I have seen too many good to great horses never getting a chance to show their best, and often, it had little to do with figs.

My point is, there are bad runners EVERY year, and YES, it helps the odds having 20, BUT I would rather see the best horses have a legit chance to win.

Look, I handicap the race every year knowing at least one horse will have it\'s career ruined as some idiot owner thinks their sprinter can run 10F, then you never see the horse again.

I am an owner, and have never bought into a colt because the Derby Dream is a lottery ticket that is a BILLION to one you will ever cash. I don\'t want to catch the fever, and ruin a nice colt!

The Derby is our marquee race, and BTW, co-mingled betting pools virtually guarantee you will make $$$ in the exotics, and not having to waste it on 6 extra also-rans would be a plus.

IF you REALLY want to make big $$$ Derby day, how about CD LOWERING the Pick-6 wager to a 1.00 base instead of 2.00; I would dive in big time!

A Zero does win this, and a LOT of horses won\'t go forward enough, or will be compromised by the trip.

Academic, until we see the draw; personally, I hate these 20 horse fields, and I wish they would limit it to one gate (14 horses)

Too many bad horses ruin it for legit contenders!

IF he draws the auxiliary gate, he is a STONE-COLD mortal lock! Empty the kid\'s college fund, the retirement, and take out a 2nd mortgage.

IF he draws any post inside of the 12 hole, he will have to work too much.

I haven\'t felt so strongly about a horse since Monarchos, and he was a mortal lock; I couldn\'t empty my wallet fast enough!

Don\'t agree about the Blue Grass....think Thunder Gulch. His BG was awful, as the race was run with a nothing pace and he ran accordingly. Got a great post, pace, and ride to win the big one.

IF \'Joke draws a wide post, he is the most likely winner, at a price. I like horses with solid 2yo foundations, and the match race with Syndegaard knocked him out.

He is recovered, and coming forward at the right time. McC IS the real deal, and his CD form speaks volumes!

I have selfish reasons to look at this race, as I am an owner of one of the participants, (Invading Humor) who makes the final start of her career. Her sis, Distorted Beauty, would have been here, but a tendon injury on Monday abruptly ended her career. A bittersweet weekend for our partnership, to be sure! As follow:

Selenite (12-1) not at her best on soft going, but can hit the board.

Flipcup (8-1) hidden in last, and backing up in trip; major player, at a price.

Mah Jong Madness ran Thurs....will scratch

C D\'Cat (20-1) interesting at the price, but on soft surface.

Neck of the Moon (8-1) a player at anywhere near the price!

Invading Humor (15-1) enters her 14th consecutive stakes; a good earner for a mare who has never run a big number. hates soft grass and Old Harbor will push her early. Goodbye girl, and many thanks!

Tahoe Tigress MTO

Feeling Bossy (20-1) getting better, this 3YO will be a player in this division next year. In light, but on soft.

Carameaway (50-1) always enters, always scratches!

Old Harbor (10-1) had a nice year, but will fade late on soft going.

The Tea Cups (5-1) the win wager at the price; turns the table on the favorite.

Fourstar Crook even money fav would have been a player in the G3 Athenia on Sunday. Model of consistency will be there at the end.

the play: 11 over the 1-2-5-12....good luck!

This is a race for a chance to be BIG in the exotics; the pace of this NYB turf stakes changed dramatically when front-speed Freudie Anne didn\'t enter, and pace-presser Mah Jon Madness opted for the Nobel Damsel.

JC\'s Shooting Star (30-1) better than last; prefers firm grass, but a cut below these.

Fourstar Crook (2-1) Logical, and last two are career best, but adds 5 lbs off the Yaddo win. key to this race is to watch the early races to see if turf favors her closing punch; if speed prevails, she can hit the board, but i will take a stand against her.

Flipcup (6-1) Ridiculous ML; should be under 4-1. Major player for Mott, but was she helped by the softer turf in the Yaddo??

Carameaway (30-1) No, and a likely scratch.

Neck of the Moon (7/2) Win-pool underlay, but an exotic must-use, as she always hit the board. Let her beat me!

Old Harbor (8-1) Won restricted at Delpark that was written for her; in good form, and one of the pace keys. IF she wars on the front with Invading Humor, then the closer will feast.

The Tea Cups (4-1) cross-entered in the Nobel Damsel, perhaps to get Graded black-type. Major player in here if she goes!

Invading Humor (20-1) The other pace key, and she finally gets the cool weather she loves, and firm grass in a NYB stakes. Has the best pace numbers, and won this in 2014; IF \'Harbor sits off of her, as she did in the Ticonderoga, she is a real threat to wire these, at a price!

Jules N Rome  MTO

Selenite (10-1) Has run well, and last was hidden by a bad trip; can hit the board at a nice price.

Swear By It (30-1) Has never been this good, but  was cleverly placed to get graded black type going very long at Delaware...pass!

The play: Watch the early turf routes, as this will temper the play. Invading Humor at anywhere near the ML is the across-the-board play; use in exotics with Selenite, Fourstar Crook, Flipcup, \'Moon, and Tea cups, if she goes!

My first trip to the Spa was the \'78 Travers. Being a 24 year-old, I had the stamina to get up at 4am, pick up my uncle in South Philly, drive up and spend the day, get lost driving home, and arriving back at 2am!

It was love at first site, and I have been going back ever since. Yes, it has changed, but there is still nothing on God\'s green earth like mornings at Oklahoma, or on the backstretch. The best thing I ever did was get into a NYB partnership, as my wife & I (BTW, we eloped up there!) look forward to seeing our girl\'s (Invading Humor & Distorted Beauty) in their stalls, enjoying the surroundings.

Saratoga forever!

Well.....IH handled the ship, but HATES soft grass; would have been there at the end if firm. Her sister fared no better at GPW; soaking wet in the paddock. It was over before it started! She just does not ship. Good call Rick B!!

Thanks for choosing this race, and for picking our horse (fingers-crossed!) This will be IH\'s first career start outside NY. We are hoping she handled the ship OK, and praying for firm turf!

Her full-sister (Distorted Beauty) runs in the My Charmer at GPW. That race came up tough, and she is a lousy shipper to boot. We sent her down early hoping she will be calm on Sat. Our partnership would be thrilled if we can get them G3 black type. Wish us luck!

any chance the Cardinal at CD, or the My Charmer at GPW as ROTW? Both look like good betting races....thanks!

Turf, all the way! They run more consistent numbers, and trips are easier to gauge. When I play dirt, I look for turf-to-dirt angles.