I haven\'t seen the TG figs for the recent 3 year old races over the last 2 weeks, so perhaps they tell a different story, but I can\'t remember a recent year where we were in almost mid-March and there really aren\'t any fast 3 year olds.
Mohaymen can\'t get past a 95 Beyer and despite seeming to win easy, he isn\'t running fast at all. (TGJB seemed to hint that he has the last race faster than Beyer, so maybe). When you factor in his smallish physical size and the fact that he doesn\'t really have the gate speed to \"make his own trip\", he would seem to be an underlay at this point. I can\'t say I am \"against\" the horse, but I am pretty neutral and as a very short price with a very large bandwagon, being neutral makes me sort of against him relative to price.
Nyquist - Got the large TG figure in the BC, but extreme ground loss loaded into the figure. The entire race seems to have been weak to my eye. Granted, his 7 furlong race this year was very nice, but guy still seems that he may be distance challenged based on breeding and I can\'t love the 7 furlong, ship to Florida, then the Derby route. If you want to go two preps, it would seem that 2 routes would be better. But who knows. Whoever wins the Florida Derby, if it is Nyquistt or Mohaymen, would seem to be 1-5 to be the post time favorite on Derby day.
Mor Spirit - Another who really hasn\'t done anything wrong, except he also hasn\'t run fast. Sat a perfect trip behind 2 speed horses who may have limitations in his last race. Then got the job done while really not asked for his best. Perhaps he has more in the tank.
There are others, but they really haven\'t distinguished themselves on the numbers yet.
Maybe the next 8 weeks will have some horses run fast races and change the way it looks now, but I, for one, will be looking for a longshot in the Derby if the favorites continue to run very mediocre figures.
I guess the bright side is we won\'t have to hear \"too fast too soon\" in the Derby TG package...
Rob
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I haven\'t seen the TG figs for the recent 3 year
> old races over the last 2 weeks, so perhaps they
> tell a different story, but I can\'t remember a
> recent year where we were in almost mid-March and
> there really aren\'t any fast 3 year olds.
>
> Mohaymen can\'t get past a 95 Beyer and despite
> seeming to win easy, he isn\'t running fast at all.
> (TGJB seemed to hint that he has the last race
> faster than Beyer, so maybe). When you factor in
> his smallish physical size and the fact that he
> doesn\'t really have the gate speed to \"make his
> own trip\", he would seem to be an underlay at this
> point. I can\'t say I am \"against\" the horse, but
> I am pretty neutral and as a very short price with
> a very large bandwagon, being neutral makes me
> sort of against him relative to price.
>
> Nyquist - Got the large TG figure in the BC, but
> extreme ground loss loaded into the figure. The
> entire race seems to have been weak to my eye.
> Granted, his 7 furlong race this year was very
> nice, but guy still seems to be maybe be distance
> challenged based on breeding and I can\'t love the
> 7 furlong, ship to Florida, then the Derby route.
> If you want to go two preps, it would seem that 2
> routes would be better. But who knows. Whoever
> wins the Florida Derby, if it is Nyquistt or
> Mohaymen, would seem to be 1-5 to be the post time
> favorite on Derby day.
>
> Mor Spirit - Another who really hasn\'t done
> anything wrong, except he also hasn\'t run fast.
> Sat a perfect trip behind 2 speed horses who may
> have limitations in his last race. Then got the
> job done while really not asked for his best.
> Perhaps he has more in the tank.
>
> There are others, but they really haven\'t
> distinguished themselves on the numbers yet.
>
> Maybe the next 8 weeks will have some horses run
> fast races and change the way it looks now, but I,
> for one, will be looking for a longshot in the
> Derby if the favorites continue to run very
> mediocre figures.
>
> I guess the bright side is we won\'t have to hear
> \"too fast too soon\" in the Derby TG package...
>
> Rob
Still early. AP didnt arrive on the scene until the second week of March last year. Agree no fast ones yet and doubtful there are any AP\'s lurking. Derby and NCAA tournament have much in common this year.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
While the simple explanation I\'ve seen in years past is this is a fast crop or a slow crop or an average crop. Such an explanation sure seems simplistic to me.
Considering the importance of the TC races and assuming trainers have been gaining knowledge over the years, a campaign strategy of slow acceleration/improvement with the goal of a peak performance @CD makes a lot of sense in a perfect and orderly world. In such a world one would not expect top performances until May. C/B the qualifying points system affects developmental approaches.
The facts of too fast too soon can\'t have been lost on the complete trainer community. The economics of high priced young horses lost early in their careers has to be on somebodies radar large and small outfits.
Without knowing details or methodologies, what about the possibility of propagation. If a 2 y/o mdn winner\'s performance # is graded erroneously high/low (whatever the cause), then that two year old subsequently races competitively against other top prospects often on days of mysterious track variance, wouldn\'t the early mis-figure have the potential of distorting relative #\'s that follow?
That is, supposing there are some checks and balances, can one or two early mis-figures make a crop fast or slow?
The fact that this year\'s 3 y/o male stars look and compete as good as they do and yet grade as semi-fast is interesting.
Good year for a filly to take a derby shot(they wont) Both Songbird and Catherine Sophia competitive on figs.
Take a look at a firster 3yr old filly Lightstream, msw yesterday at GP, did it every which way to sunday and it comes out fastest 3 yr old performance by either sex, all distances, like TG 0
Is it a coincidence that the injuries seem to be down this year as well?
I am still anticipating a nice jump in Mohaymans # for the FL Derby even though I think Nyquist will have the screws tighter for the Bonus $$
Excellent point about the injuries. I would also note more trainers are going with lighter prep schedules and more spacing.
Re the comment on the string about AP not coming out until mid March, he ran faster as a 2yo than almost any of these did so far as a 3yo. Twice.
Meanwhile, there\'s a filly out there that hasn\'t gotten nearly enough credit.
Why hasn\'t Carina Mia started?
She looked to be ready about now but likely has been impacted by the Payson Park quarantine.
Thanks, looked like a serious filly at 2
You make a great point. But if one were go into the Archives and look at the last 10 Derby Winners only 3 of them as of the first of March had run Negative #\'s.
Big Brown
Orb
Street Sense - who did his at 2.
The fact that some of them were running 0\'s and 1\'s by now and most of these, if not all of them this year are not is a marginal difference to me.
Certain Trainers don\'t have as many Derby Contenders which could explain the fewer injuries. The lighter racing schedules is also a contributor. But that can also become a negative to me. A horse with 4 starts who isn\'t that fast going into the Derby is going to be hard pressed to pull a Giacomo, Mine That Bird or Charismatic. I question if he is seasoned and tough enough to handle a 20 horse Derby distance and field....
Her name is?
Curious to see if Brody\'s Cause will live up to expectations in his upcoming 3yo debut. Most rankings still giving him plenty credit for his 2yo campaign.
The one who owns the three fastest figures by a 3yo of either gender.
Well, it\'s got to be Cathryn Sophia by that measure. There isn\'t a horse out there, I don\'t think, that has three negative numbers. I think she\'s been given her due, but she hasn\'t been around two turns - which is a worry.
Gotta say, that match up in the Oaks has a chance to be really, really special.
Whether she can go two turns or not, she\'s done what she\'s done, and not all great horses are routers. Most young horses that come out running that fast crack by this point, and she may soon, so training her up to the Oaks is at least worth considering, and spacing her races in general.
I don\'t think she\'s escaping notice. Other than Songbird, she\'s getting the most talk of the other 3yo fillies, and they look forward to the two meeting in the Oaks.
She\'s run serious numbers and definitely is a competitor.
Interesting how fast Cat Sophia is here vs other speed/performance figs. Except for her last race, her best was in the TG 3 range everywhere.
Still hasn\'t changed leads late which may be a concern when she goes 2 turns.Said to be training very well out of last.
Oaks shaping up a match race between Songbird and Cat Sophia if no other filly jumps up soon.
Mike,
Don\'t want to start a \"slow TG California figs\" discussion, but personally having a tough reconciling TGJB\'s figures for Songbird vs Catherine Sophia. I guess part of it is that Songbird never loses ground, going right to the lead, but it seems more than that.
Songbird looks slow on TG. YOu pay more attention to other services. Is she faster elsewhere?
Rob
Songbird is not slow, and had a great pattern going into her last, where she clearly could have run faster. No opinion as to what happens when she meets Sophie going long. But Songbird, between pattern and pedigree, certainly will move forward. She looked a lot like Rachel as a 2yo, though she\'s unlikely to develop the crazy amount that one did.
Re Sophie, the last figure makes the earlier ones we assigned look right.
Rob,
Songbird has one figure that is like TG 1.75(her top) Be very wary of her, she\'s been held late last couple and gets raves from good eyes that watch her every day she trains,license to be a freakish 3yr old filly, big and yet great mover, never really hooked hard.A small knock may be how tough she is when eyeballing a fast one like her(Sophie)
Sophie ran a top on all figs I saw in her last.Doesn\'t check all the boxes like Songbird but is pure fast and that trumps the rest, if she is as good going 2 turns predict epic battle in Oaks.
JB,
Not being a wise ass, but can\'t get to Sophie\'s early TG figs and it\'s rare that you and Beyer are 2-3 points apart on a rather straight forward couple of races. Next time you speak to Jerardi, it might be an interesting conversation.
The public (and Watchmaker) are all in on Songbird as it is. She would be a heavy heavy favorite against Cathryn Sophia, so if there\'s money to be made on that race, it\'s with CS.
The Laurel number seems right. It was 1.5 seconds faster than Vorticity at that distance on the same day. Songbird wins for fun, but I\'ve not seen a horse jog through a 15 length score like that.
Miff-- presumably you mean Songbird has a better figure on other, claiming par based figures. Claiming races in California are 6 horse fields, half Cal breds, running for inflated tags. Claiming horses in the Mid Atlantic deal with shippers from everywhere, a cutthroat game, and they run faster because of supertrainers that can\'t get away with that stuff in California. A 10 claimer there is like a 25 claimer in Cali.
Again, Sophie running the recent figure in Florida supports the other two. The chance of any 3yo filly running that fast is one in a thousand, the chance of her doing it if she\'s already done it twice is MUCH greater.
Listen, I think I was the only one to get the Derby right last year. And that was the friggin Derby.
JB,
Great point about Cali claimers, (wish it wasn\'t as public as it is now!) we\'re rapidly running out of what the public doesn\'t know.
Roddy Valente made some nice scores claiming Cali horses still with conditions and bringing them back east for over 10 years. The last 3 or 4 he rarely claims and ships west to east anymore and very few that he has have made any impact.
As this debate rages on over these 2 Fillys, their figures and their Oaks chances these 2 Trainers need to be considered and their history.
#1 Servis once had a 3YO colt (Smarty Jones) who had run maybe to fast too soon. At least a minus 3 in the Southwest which is in mid-March. This was after having run 3 straight 0\'s beginning with PARX in late November. He only gave this Filly of his ONE breeze in between her last 2 races. She could go bad any day now but he seems to know what he is doing.
#2 Hollandorfer does too. He has won the Oaks about 4 times it seems. the year he and Nakatani beat me (Escena at 9/2) on a jump up long shot in the last 20 yards I still haven\'t gotten over. Blind Luck had a minus 1/2 in the Fantasy and still held it together enough to pair in the Oaks. He is managing Songbirds development there is no doubt in my mind. One thing to consider is that last year she looked a foot taller than her competitors. This year she doesn\'t. This might be why he isn\'t trying to shoot for the Derby.
Silver,
Smarty is the classic TG example of too fast too soon.The last 7 or 8 years spending a lot of time with Uncle Bill at the Spa the first words out of his mouth every year when the too fast too early conversation comes up are Smarty Jones!
Servis has a very modestly bred freak for sure,up to a one turn mile I\'d take her against the boys. Miff stated last week that she has yet to change leads and that REALLY concerns me when you talk about her going around 2 turns.
Miff needs to watch the replays. She is switching leads. In the Forward Gal she flopped back to her left late in the race. She doesn\'t have a heavily slanted right lead gait if that\'s what you want.
As far as Smarty Jones goes he came within 50 yards of being the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years. The owners were being pressured to sell and like Pharoah last year once the Deal went through his career after his 3YO year was over. There were people on here then like \"Mall\" who were in the know and the pressure on the old guy Chapman to sell was immense.
Smarty Jones was supposed to be \"cooked\" by the time he reached the Derby. On the brink of collapse from all the huge negative numbers.Sitting on an 0-2X (https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/kd2004.pdf) He went off at 4-1 when he was anywhere from 2-4 lengths faster than any other horse in the race. He stalked Lion Heart from the gate and promptly ran over the top him once they turned for home.
On a side note there another horse in that race who drew wide and never ran a jump in the sloppy goo! I know because I bet him. Name was Tapit. He turned out ok....
Silver,
Yes, my skills at watching races very poor.She finishes on her wrong lead and does not change too well in the morning from all the clockers watching her. Horses failing to change is sometimes a sign of stressing on a limb or just greeness.
Two turn races require a seamless change and flip flopping vs a Songbird could be the difference, all else equal.
Alydar never changed leads and was still great though some believe that\'s why he could not get by Affirmed.
There may have been other reasons why Alydar could never go by Affirmed but of course that\'s blasphemy.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Yeah. Ground loss. He was outside of him every turn of every TC race.
Alydar did go by Affirmed.
Score was 7-2 Affirmed(think) and Alydar never finished in front of Affirmed at 3.
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> JB,
>
> Great point about Cali claimers, (wish it wasn\'t
> as public as it is now!) we\'re rapidly running out
> of what the public doesn\'t know.
>
> Roddy Valente made some nice scores claiming Cali
> horses still with conditions and bringing them
> back east for over 10 years. The last 3 or 4 he
> rarely claims and ships west to east anymore and
> very few that he has have made any impact.
Probably a loaded question. Why is Jacobson doing so poorly in CA? He claims there but also sends many from back east. 4-36 at Santa Anita. 1-12 at Golden Gate. Based on the lousy California claimer theory -- he should be cleaning up and he is definitely not.
I suspect the answer may lie in this part of JB\'s post: \"... they run faster because of supertrainers that can\'t get away with that stuff in California.\"
Pharmaceutical accusations aside, maybe he thought it would be easy pickings or that he is sharper than everyone else?
I\'m surprised he made the move west especially using a lot of his own money as a full or partial owner of most of his stock. He ran an allowance horse at Aqueduct last week that went west for one race and then back to NY. The purse structure isn\'t advantageous and the expense of shipping does not make much sense. I have no idea why he would get involved at Golden Gate?
We\'ve seen east coast horses starting to grow their winter coats ship in to Cali breeders cups without much success unless given time to acclimate. He\'s certainly not crossing the country with BC caliber stock.
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pharmaceutical accusations aside, maybe he thought
> it would be easy pickings or that he is sharper
> than everyone else?
>
> I\'m surprised he made the move west especially
> using a lot of his own money as a full or partial
> owner of most of his stock. He ran an allowance
> horse at Aqueduct last week that went west for one
> race and then back to NY. The purse structure
> isn\'t advantageous and the expense of shipping
> does not make much sense. I have no idea why he
> would get involved at Golden Gate?
>
> We\'ve seen east coast horses starting to grow
> their winter coats ship in to Cali breeders cups
> without much success unless given time to
> acclimate. He\'s certainly not crossing the country
> with BC caliber stock.
There was a rumor that Chad Brown was going to have a string at Santa Anita that never happened. Same with Brian Lynch who has trained a number of the Stronach horses over the years. Same no show. Trainers (and owners) believed Jacobson initially was here to just raid and move them to NY. Lots of rumors and as rumors tend to be -- not true.
Jacobson seems to be running in the right spots (same level as claimed or lower) and he gets the best jockeys but the horses are just not firing. The Golden Gate horses are just cheap and don\'t fit at Santa Anita. A disaster for him so far -- as you say with the shipping on his dime and all.
In an amazing coincidence his horses don\'t run well at Saratoga either. Not don\'t win-- don\'t run well.
His horses don\'t like the surface up there.
He doesn\'t point for that meet.
There is tougher competition.
_____________________
***I believe none of these.
I\'m going to play a little Devil\'s Advocate here with both of these.
To my eye Cathryn Sophia isn\'t built like a router. She looks more like a sprinter. If I were betting just on looks and breeding I think the 1 1/8th of the Oaks would be too far for her. That\'s a little besides the point because she obviously can run and it would appear from the way that she has been able to finish that more distance wouldn\'t be a problem for her. But to add to her physical confirmation, she was an ugly mover early on and it took a lot of work just to get her to come around. She\'s stubborn. I think the lead change issue is more of her just being her and not listening to her cues than a physical issue. It\'s a mental thing, and that could mean trouble at longer distances if she doesn\'t \"grow up\" first. So I will put my money where my mouth is and say that if her first try around two turns has a decent field size and there is some quality in there I will be willing to bet against Sophia. Guess we\'ll see.
Songbird, on the other hand, is all router and just gallops them silly on the front end. I dunno what would happen if she had to take dirt, but it seems almost irrelevant because she\'s barely ever been headed during a race. No one can seem to keep up with her for 3/4 of a mile. Those are some real fractions she is setting on the front end too, 23.20, 46.02, 109.98. To my eye its that third fraction where she is taking the will out of her competition, and so far that\'s been enough and she then wins \"geared down\" in the stretch.
There\'s always a lot of speculation about what a horse \"could have\" run if they weren\'t geared down at the end of the race. And Songbird is certainly one of those. But truthfully, if she\'s going to set those kind of fractions I don\'t know how much faster she would be able to finish if someone else was really coming and the distance was a little longer. She\'s probably got a bit more, but that\'s got to be about it. So the extra distance and quality of the field in the Oaks could get her too. For Songbird, her last few races have been more or less over after 3/4 of mile. That\'s what she knows.
So I\'m not conceding the Oaks to anyone. Yet.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In an amazing coincidence his horses don\'t run
> well at Saratoga either. Not don\'t win-- don\'t run
> well.
So, what is it -- a money laundering scheme?
(since the interwebs don\'t record intonation of voice, I feel it necessary to add that I\'m being mostly facetious)
The only excuse I can offer for DJake upstate is that more than 50% of the races
are probably run on turf, and DJake has never been more than a 10% turf trainer.
As to wanting to escape out to California, it didn\'t work out too well for his
father, either.
Jacobsen had a sweetheart financial deal with his owners for years.Ran horses one or two classes below value and took big slice of purse. Jacobson mainly now on his own money and very different MO.
Runs lots of garbage claimers at SPA and is harmless there. What claiming trainer ever does well there with all the grass races anyway.
Far as him being a big time move up guy,does not stack up close, percentage wise.His double and triple drop downs very tough reads, some win,some up the track at short prices. Right now, he\'s harmless wherever he races.
Mjellish,
LOS has a legit 2 year old top. Sire stat over 4 pts improvement from 2-3. Needs a forward move next race. Any thoughts on Destin? Full to G1 winner and very atypical considering the barn.Last race certainly a breakout.
Thanks,
Flighted
It\'s still pretty early. The second one we will probably get to see run this weekend. Sam F Davis was a pretty weak field IMO, and has to overcome Pletcher as trainer.
Weak field yes. Weak race no. Not sure what you mean by overcoming trainer? Going back to December Destin hasn\'t worked over a half mile.
What is Pletcher\'s record in the Kentucky Derby? 1/30something? 1/40something? I dunno off the top of my head, but that\'s what I meant.
1 for 43
And the 1 not only wasn\'t running big numbers in florida he did not have his final prep in florida, and he shipped to kentucky and worked out over the CD strip leading up to the Derby.
He was very lucky that Ice Box was stopped at least twice coming down the stretch,and Looking at Lucky had the 1 hole..
Servis trainer a horse named Jostle and won the Alabama way back when. Might be worth taking a look at that horse.
From 2006-2015: 31 starters and 1 win. The stat is slightly diversionary. I\'m of the opinion no more than 10 and as low as 8 of these entrants had a legitimate chance of running first, second and third. As of this moment though Mor Spirit is my key. Mor Spirit will have to seriously disappoint in his subsequent races for me to change my opinion. At this point i like him as much as i liked Nehro.
Good luck,
Flighted
You\'re talking about Baffert here. I don\'t have a problem with him for the KY Derby. I was referring to Pletcher, the trainer of Destin who you mentioned in your post. Pletcher has had a lot more horses with a lot more big numbers coming into the Derby than Baffert has over the past 10 years. Baffert has also shown he can get them ready for a peak effort first Saturday in May, and hold them together for the next 5 weeks (he didn\'t get enough credit for what he did with American Pharoah last year in my opinion). Apples to oranges vs Pletcher and the Triple Crown, also IMO again.
The part of my post regarding the 1 for 31 was about pletcher. I reviewed the archives and my take is only 10 and as low as 8 entrants for pletcher were legitimate to run 1,2 and 3. Re baffert: never mentioned him. I mentioned the Mor Spirit.
I also mentioned Destin. Hasn\'t run out of his skin and imo seems the type who will go on.
Anybody arguing that Pletcher is anything but a disgusting, underachieving Derby trainer has been asleep for the last 15 years.
One lucky win.
Many fast horses that didn\'t run a step.
JCovello tried to come up with a laundry list of excuses for him last year, which I actually bought into and got on the Materiality bandwagon. Yet another horse he ruined on the way to the Derby.
We shouldn\'t be mentioning Pletcher in the same sentence or even paragraph as Baffert when it comes to the derby. It would be Sort of like deciding between Gisele Bundchen and Rosie O\"donnel for the cover of the sports illustrated swimsuit edition. (no offense to Rosie, she is a comedian, not a model) That is how close Pletcher is to Baffert.
Ro
Never know, Iron. Either one of those two could turn out to be the one. For me its way too early to be talking about key horses in the KY Derby. They havent even run the San Felipe or the Rebel yet, let alone some of the other ones. I usually dont have a key horse or horses finalized until after the post position draw, although i may have some strong inclinations. But even then i am often still working on my Derby bet the night after the Oaks card and i am willing to change my opinion right up till my bet is in if need be. There\'s a lot of data points to consider, and most of them aren\'t in yet.
From 2006-2015 70% of the Derby winners were 8-1 or less.
Number of pletcher runners in that 70% were 6. Number of wins out of the 6 was the 1 lucky one you mentioned.
Same time frame 67% of horse to finish first,second and third were 13-1 or lowet.
Number of pletcher entrants in the 67% were 10. Number of top 3 finishes is 3.
The seven who were 13-1 and under who ran out.
Materiality, Verrazano and Dunkirk are the too fast too soon poster horses.
Carpe Diem and Gemologist are headscratchers. Good lines coming in, but that\'s horseracing.
Devil May Care coming in off a 4 point top. I must admit i tried hard to get a pair from her. The whole Malibu Moon thing. Anyhow.
Last but not least is Circular Quay.Went Street Sense on top of CQ for a bunch. Probably a bunch more than that come to think of it. Shoot!
CQ actually paired his top and if I\'m not mistaken ran thd second fastest fig in the race. Befitting name cause this guy sure had a key to a whole new circle. Wide and Wider.
Flighted Iron
Flight,
Nice data.
But 1 for 43 is 1 for 43. he has had plenty of fast horses. Sure, the odds on some of the recent ones have started to drift up, because everybody realizes his horses don\'t run their numbers in the Derby. (you missed Bandini on your list. Didn\'t doublecheck, but pretty sure he was Pletcher and had some big number in the bluegrass (negative 2ish?), where he trounced the host\'s favorite 3-year old that year, High Limit.
Whatever the reasons are, tough to feel good about having Pletcher train any 3 year old that you have your eye on for the Derby.
Rob
Speaking of the Toddster-- one of the great money burners of all time looks to burn more in the Big Cap tomorrow.
From the looks of his ML, I\'m sure many chomping at the bit after seeing that romp in the slop at GP.
Good Luck,
Joe B
The question here is not where they finish, but how they run compared to their Florida form. And I\'m pretty sure we covered that in a Derby seminar or three.