Considering the clock tine, are the slow half mile fractions of the Remsen and Holy Bull suggestive of a vulnerability for Mohaymen?
Looking at the morning line It seems that the vertical returns don\'t get seductive unless the player can beat the favorite twice or beat him once and get Fellowship into the tri. Stanley Gold with two horses of contrasting running styles has tactical tools other don\'t.
The more I consider this race the more curious it becomes. Here we are at a time of the year when developing 3 year olds can jump up or bounce back. I don\'t want to make the race a guessing game but as good as the favorite has been I\'ve become conditioned to try and beat vulnerable favorites (in spots) is this one of those spots?
Can Zulu be tossed? The Pletcher $\'s will be significant are they warranted or speculative in this case?
Counterpoint the race is probably between the two big operations Pletcher & McGlaughlin, Stonestreet/Magnier and Shadwell/Sheiks. Is it naive to play against these two big money professional forces who are focused on the Triple Crown and Graded Stakes vs local South Florida trainers with a lesser agenda.
Is m/l 7/2 a sufficient reward for backing Awesome Banner to win in a situation that looks good to pace pundits.
Just one race in what other posters have pointed out - projects to be a good day of racing! Is this race beatable?
Normally a dominant allowance winner at Gulfstream in this winter/spring meet like Zulu is one you must use when he steps up into Stakes company. But this one is a little different since it was on a sloppy track. I don\'t trust that big win against someone like Mohaymen. There horse is here, he has run well so they are giving it shot. That race was 7F, not a mile or a route also.
The favorite only has 2 breezes since his last. They are saving the best for later. He still toys with this field.....
Mohayman a fast horse and certainly best distance prospect in this race. On figs, 2-4-5 all as fast, but all running in sprints, not two turn races.
That said, I may take a small shot against Mohayman here. Local clockers saying he has not been asked for much coming into this race and with him expected to be trained to fire big shots in his next two races, this would be the race he could be a little short. The 1 1/16 at Gulf can be the type of route race that may not be too bad for 7 furlong horses to stretch out to. If the track is playing to speed early in the card, may use the 2 and 4 in horizontal wagers.
Hard to see value here vertically as I wouldn\'t be betting Mohaymen out of the trifecta. And with the shirt field, not a lot of value.
Rob
All it took for the sun to come out and the wind to die down was getting me out of Florida! After a week in the Bahamas and last weekend in the cloudy wind tunnel known as Gulfstream Park cashing one small exacta in 2 days which equaled the number of nice days on my journey it took getting back to balmy NY to cash some tickets.
It\'s a great day to try and knock Mohaymen out of a 2.5 million dollar rainbow 6 and an interesting pick 4 sequence with 3 full fields on the grass.
Race 10: Thatcher Street and Aripeka are the obvious ones by the numbers and both must be used. Xaverian and On Tenterhooks are inside going forward and will be juicy prices. Three Alarm Fire has scary dirt numbers, no sire data for the green but some affinity on the dams side with a very nice turf work along with double digit odds I hope!
The Palm Beach: The first 3 across the wire in the Kitten\'s Joy all look to have a nice future on the lawn however 2 of them drew the 13 and 14 posts here so I\'ll pass on both of them. Don\'t Be So Salty got tired and came out at the end of his run but will be the controlling speed with an under rated Emma Jayne on the engine at double digits. JJ moves from Salty to the Chadster off the bench and expect half of the ML price. Giant Run has 2 nice numbers and should break well and track Salty unless Bravo goes suicidal setting up Converge to pick up all the pieces late?
FOY: I\'ll bite, toss the favorite and use Zulu, Awesome Speed and Awesome Banner.
Race 13: TAP, Chad and Mott have the first 3 choices in the heat deservingly so.
After a nice paying rainbow on Thursday and sharing yesterdays grocery money with 4,500 of my closest friends it\'s time to take a shot for the whole enchilada here.
I\'ll not be using any of the 3 choices, I\'m using 6 here and 4 of them are north of 20/1 ML. I\'ll post the last leg of the pick 4 after the rainbow 6 goes off.
Good luck,
Frank D.
I can see Awesome Speed getting a first run stalkers trip.
Speed biased surface can get Awesome Banner home on surface he loves, other than that,Mohaymen a huge edge on this field beyond figs.Kiaran is trying to win this on the cheap with an intentional kinda light training schedule since last race.
Gone already is the grand illusion of being alive in the final leg of the rainbow with a single on a 40/1 shot. Oh Well Edgar Prado and Graham Motion couldn\'t stay ice cold forever!!!
Last leg bombs:
Sport, Big Platinum and Remembering Mickey all have good turf numbers on the Dam side at nice prices. Both Brian Lynch horses have a right to go forward. Cape Force\'s first race is just as fast as the 4 & 10\'s are. The absolute bomb of the day is Ballivor who was not bet at all and ran to his odds in his debut. Weaver does ok 2nd out on turf and Lanerie gets aboard for a combo that has a small but positive sample together at Gulf.
5 X 3 X 3 X 6= $270 for a buck
I have to say the board is quite lame for a big race day especially when the ROW is trying to beat the probable favorite or 2nd choice on the first Saturday in May.
Frank D.
Somedays I have to ask myself \"What do I think about when handicapping?\" Last week in the Daisey Devine @ the FG I decided Motion\'s filly, Faufiler, was a good thing @ m/l 9/2 and posted I\'d be watching her price as post time approached. Well she scratched and I decided her recovery must have been incomplete.
So today I was asleep at the wheel when Edgar went from last to first to win by a length and pay $27.80. I didn\'t even notice she was in today. While its unfortunate she ruined some FrankD tickets, I hope someone found her she wasn\'t that camouflaged for those with eyes wide open.
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have to say the board is quite lame for a big
> race day especially when the ROW is trying to beat
> the probable favorite or 2nd choice on the first
> Saturday in May.
>
> Frank D.
Maybe a few who might otherwise post about this are
biting their tongues and once again wondering how an
otherwise legit fave loses simply due to being \"overbet\".
One of the nicest sheets I\'ve ever seen for a young horse,
so of course Mohaymen is a bet against. St. Jude, send help.
(Anyone here ever hear of a \"watcher\"? This FOY is a prime example.)
What a Chalky Day
Why bother? The card looked chalky last night and it proved to be so today. A good day to take a long walk. A really long walk.
On to the Nyquist Mohayman match race.
Will there be more than 5 entered in the FL Derby?
Beating a 5 horse field doesn\'t do much to get you ready for having to beat 19 or so others at 1 1/4 in the KY Derby, IMO. It\'s still early.
I got beat up pretty bad on the FOY card today at Gulfstream. I\'m already over it.
Honestly, I didn\'t think it was speed biased. X Y Jet set blazing fractions, and then just held on. Ready for Rye made up plenty of ground on the winner.
Lewis Bay came from the back of the field and simply lost to the superior filly. The other speed was nowhere.
Awesome Banner did nothing after the half. Fellowship was the trailer and finished just fine. Says a lot about Zulu (who looked just awful in the paddock and on track). Also shows Cathryn Sophia\'s class to run away like that.
As for betting, yeah it was chalky on top, but not so much underneath.
Mohaymen received 95 Beyer, one other service had it a bit faster, looks like a TG 2-ish if JB saw it the same. Mo was geared down a bit very late.Zulu tried hard and was ok, both Awesome horses threw clunkers.
Carherine Sophia received a 98 Beyer, better than Songbird, yet to go 2 turns but fastest filly at all services now. TG had her fastest goîng on.Oaks shaping up great matchup if both get there in one piece.
Miff check the time on the Filly race. 1:36.3. And the Colts go 1:36 and 1:42. So I don\'t know!!
Maybe a little random work here by Beyer because from like the 6th thru 11th races they were ALL Grass. You tell me.
Let me correct myself. Final time was 1:42.4. So it could be the slower final 1/16th was the small difference in Figures and in favor of the filly. Mohammed was pulling away in this part and then almost totally shut down by the time they reached the usual finish line. It was a do what you have to do effort. And do nothing more
Silver,
Windy day,not too humid, dirt races spaced far apart.....possible a change in track speed. Pal at major fig maker thought figs were ez to make all day, had Mohaymen a bit faster than Beyer.Catherine Sophia was faster than Mohaymen at one turn going in although her Parx figs way faster here than anywhere else.
Agree Mo did the necessary and was never in doubt.Appears Nyquist is coming for Fl Derby and surprisingly Zulu coming back also. Not a Nyquist fan but glowing reports out of Cali so far on his works and seems to have come out of tough 7f race better than ever.
Miff -
I\'m guessing that, with Mohaymen\'s ground loss, TGJB will have him a little faster than a 2.
Bit,
It\'s possible,Mo was wide both turns, gave 4lbs to Zulu and his performance Beyer was equal to a TG 1.50
There was another 1 1/16th race but doubt JB will use it.
FL Derby looking like a bad betting race to say the least.
I am quit sure the winner assuming one of the big 2 win the Fl Derby will come out as the KY Derby favorite.
I know Dr.Obvious here..
Zulu coming back in the FL Derby is fine if he gets a 3rd in the FL Derby with the 2nd yesterday he has the points to get into the Derby.
Mohayman won that race very easy yesterday and I am expecting a nice forward move in the Fl Derby..
CS was also wide on the turn. This one probably gets her close to her parx/laurel numbers.
Zulu definitely worth another shot. Both he and Awesome Banner looked uncomfortable in the paddock. Thought they might not get Zulu in the gate they way he was acting up, and was certainly the washiest of the group. Mohaymen couldn\'t have been calmer - just screams class.
Miff
Lengths beaten, weight and ground loss have Zulu approx 4 pts slower than Mohaymen.Zulu went backwards?
Iron,
Zulu kinda paired doing it on clock vs the other race at 1 1/16th.Zulu and the third place finisher also needs to be looked at if doing it off the horses.
Mohaymen will have a ground loaded figure for sure, fig will likely indicate a race better on paper than on the clock.The raw time of the FOY was nothing special relative to track speed for the day and especially the other two turn route.
Mike
Miff
I remember you mentioning firing line and eswt last year. Nyquist was shockwaved end of September.haven\'t read if he\'s had recent treatment. Does the CHRB have public extensive records?
Iron,
Santa Anita was publishing a vets list which would show.Not aware of any current issue w/Nyquist and a very sharp observer said he looks outstanding right now.
Mike
Miff
Just checked the list.Nothing for Nyquist other than the treatment 9-29. Fairly confident handling going from San Vicente, Fl Derby to Kentucky.
Thanks
Re Sophia, one of the first two was at Parx and the other Laurel. And in the first GP race, as I remember it, she got bottled up and only got to run maybe 3/16ths, which may have tamped down her figure some. Haven\'t looked at yesterday yet.
No matter what you do with the FOY, M has to get a new top and two of the other fast ones get real stinkers. Strong pattern for M, and not a strong (fast) crop, so far.
Next figure is crucial for some others making their second start off a layoff, as it was for those yesterday.
Don\'t forget I\'ll Have Another had Shockwave treatment leading up to the Derby. Barn seems to use it more frequently than most.
Mjellish,
I do remember. Also third on the list when racehorse and eswt are searched on google. Have you heard or read why Nyquist is leaving California?
Thanks,
Flighted
Nyquist eligible for $1M bonus if he wins the Florida Derby. I read that\'s why they are shipping him out east, and that seems to pass the sniff test.
Do you think these trainers are adopting to the points system and not squeezing to much juice from the lemon to early?
That is why the slower numbers??
No trainer wants to peak too early. Kiaran the ultimate Kool Aid drinker re too fast/knockout figs early on.Given Mohaymens average physical attributes, think he is not being pressed on in the am.
This crop is not that fast, so far, doubtful it\'s because trainers are going easy at this point.
Agree. They certainly weren\'t doing it last year.
My guess is with Nyquist the spot is more about timing than anything else. They think 2 starts spaced is the way to go, that race splits it up best.
JB,
Strange to make a long air ship to race on the present home court of Mohaymen by Nyquists\' connections. Owner Reddam filthy rich so the million bonus would not seem to be an overwhelming reason,guess.
As far as spacing, Nyquist could stay closer to home and still get nice timing to derby.Being a coward, would take the path of least resistance for Nyquist and tackle Mohaymen in derby,assuming both get there.
Second and third horses paired, you guys figure out the rest.
Mjellish,
Thanks. If this were a poker table i suppose that would have been similar to asking what do the blinds mean ? Nevertheless, after watching all the top colts\' action i belive Mor Spirit probably is best in May. If he makes the gate he\'s my key.
Flighted Iron