We here at Thoro-Graph wish one and all happy holidays. We\'ll be off for the next two days though Nicely Nicely will be monitoring emails and posts. We\'ll be back in the office Saturday.
We\'re not doing an Race of the Week this week. The data is free and open to all--why doesn\'t someone take the initiative.
Once again--Happy Holidays.
Would be interested in hearing your opinions on this race.
6th at SA 12/26.
As hard as it might be to imagine, Stevens (Om), Quiones (Acceptable) are probably going to knock heads on the front end again. Big difference being this race is not 1 +1/8 like the Hollywood Derby.
I like one or the other to win. No late closers get up this time. The Irish Horse price depressed by Mr. Smith too big a ? for me.
Ike Walker a warrior, never better usually spotted well triple crown winning rider, colorful trainer healthy m/l to crash the trifecta.
By the way, the rumor that class is dead in horse racing is contradicted, by of all people, TGJB and terrific staff. The Christmas give back is as classy as it gets. Thanks for all that you do!
\"Of all people\"?
Oh, I get it. Speed vs class. Okay.
In the 4th at Santa Anita I like the 14 horse Coastline. First time Phil D\'Amato with an outside post which I like on the hillside turf, competitive top good sprint turf pedigree and 20-1 morning line. Holy Lute scares me as well as Big Bane Theory, I\'ll box those with my pick as a saver. I\'ll be there on Saturday in person can\'t wait to pick up my Santa Anita calendar and cash a few tickets.
Ace
R6: Om does not have a pace advantage according to TG...loses a point for weight...
spread to Perfectly Majestic, Crittenden, Soul Driver, Om, and best value
Fueled By Bourbon(it\'s Miller and a pace change).
R7 Hot City Girl is the now horse, Cavorting has numbers, both acclimated.
R8 Run Happy ships with a trainer change and no Maria for naps...will root against
but must use with the spacing, drills, and figs...big class drop...the two
McLaughlin\'s have upside and both worked at SA.
R9 Hunt was dead last at the top of the shorter stretch at Del Mar...Second Summer
also ran well despite trouble...distance and weight should suit both.
P-4 5 X 2 X 3 X 2, or $30 @ 50 cents.
TG players recently voiced an opinion they prefer turf over dirt. The Daytona Stakes on opening day offers a 13 horse field on turf, down the hill at 6.5 furlongs. The morning line favorite draws the 11 post position. I'll attempt to improve my turf handicapping and maybe open up a discussion on a very interesting race.
Daytona Stakes, Race 4, Santa Anita, 6.5 furlongs on turf, Down the Hill, Dec 26, 2015
Richard's Boy—first of two Peter Miller charges in side by side. This one paired his top, a 3 in his last at 5f on the turf after running a 3 on dirt. The dirt "3" came after almost 3 months off. Spaced another 43 days since his last, this one looks likely to pair up or move backwards according to Thoropattern. He will likely save ground, carries only 117, getting 7 lbs from the M/L fav No Silent and 7 lbs from 3rd choice on the M/L Alert Bay. Useable underneath only.
Big Cazanova—Whether it is poly, dirt, or turf, this one's best is a "2." Has ran back to back to back "2's" in turf, turf, and dirt events respectively. He cuts back from routes all year to a sprint to end it on a course that many believe horses need one over before running their best. Figures to save ground, has competitive figs but seems unlikely to break through to a new top at 6yo. Dislike his chances but must be used at the bottom of the tri if you are heading in that direction.
Mystery Train—This is the second U.S. turf race for the 2nd Argentine bred in the race. His first turf race in the U.S. was a disaster. His poly track starts at Del Mar last year and WO this year provide no confidence. His best on dirt is a "3," also cuts back to a tricky, tricky distance for a router first time. Seems to get a good trip always and could spoil the bottom of the tri with an effort equivalent to his dirt best but this seems unlikely. Playing against.
Rocket Heat—12th start of the year for this 3yo son of Latent Heat, bred to sprint on turf. Not one race on the page puts him in contention. Likes to run 1st or 2nd but just too slow and heavily raced. Throw out.
Big Bane Theory—After his 3yo season, has been a model of consistency numbers-wise running numbers in a range of 1 to 5 since August of his 4yo year. Numbers of 1, 2, 2, 3, and 3 appear on the page for turf races. Has run on the course earlier this year earning a 4 in a 3w trip. Note the Sl place that may have compromised him in his last. Contender.
Plainview--SCRATCHED
Alert Bay—This one's last 4 races have been his best. City Zip gelding has posted 2, neg 0.5, 2, and 3 carving out 2w to 4w trips in all routes. His sprint at Golden Gate earned a 7 but that was his first race in four plus months. Co-highweight in the race comes out of the same Sl Pace race as Big Bane Theory but he was beaten by that one after being just 2.5 to 4 lengths off the pace early unlike BBT who was another 4 lengths back in the early going. His best race came as the third in a short succession similar to today's race. If he runs back close to the -0.5, with Garcia aboard, he will be in the tri and if gets to that number he can win here. Has won at the dist on the course albeit against CalBreds in '14. Contender.
Bench Warrant—ran a 1w trip over the course on Oct 8th, first off a layoff earning an "8" which along with all his other races makes him too slow. Sadler earning tops and pairs at a combined 49 to 60% rate in various categories last 90 days. That is your best angle to use him but looks too slow and needs a major move up to contend. Throw out.
Holy Lute—Another making his 12th start of the year. Ran 2nd at 6.5 furlongs in April, May, and Sept (at SA, SA, And KD) earning figs in those 3 races of 3, 3, and 3. Carries 119 getting 5 lbs from the two co-highweights giving him a 1 point advantage against those two. Troubled trip line means he may get overbet off of his last but this 5yo is a borderline contender for the win on his best and player in the exotics underneath.
The Great War—One of Wesley Ward's specialties is grass, turf sprinters. Ward trainees ran 2nd-3rd during the weekend of his life at the 2014 BC with No Nay Never and Undrafted on this 6.5 furlong course. (Ward was in Florida watching his son run State CC championships if you are curious). 2015 hasn't been as kind to Ward but he still has won some races . He still is dangerous in this type spot. This one has earned a 1 at Turfway Park, where richiebee declared him his Derby pick. Spaced out races major cause for concern obviously but shipping him out there shows confidence. The 3 earned at WO where "failed to hold late" was a decent effort after 70 days off since Ward's almost complete debacle at Saratoga as a trainer. This one Ran awful on BC weekend for Ward at his home track in turf sprint where Ward had at least 3 entered as I recall. This one ran at SA in 2014 at BC when trained by O'Brien before being given to Ward earning an 8 while running a race that made him look like a sprinter. Kent D and Ward team up for 61% pairs or tops in 43 starts. Carries 117 pounds. If he returns to a 1 or better, improving off the 3 at WO (treating the BC as a throwout), this one has price and legit win potential. This one is the biggest question mark in the race but is a must use at the price and the potential this 3yo has shown this year. CONTENDER, USEABLE in WIN POSITION.
Somethings Unusual—this horse will drive some TG posters nutso with his consistency earning a 5 in 11 straight starts dating back to last Dec. Then in Oct, on this course at this distance, he earned a 3 finishing 2nd by a head in $100k Stakes (Calbred?). He finally threw in a clunker on number power in November and returned to his usual "5." Now, he returns to his scene of his lifetime top but even that seems unlikely at 119 emerging out of post 10. Throwout.
No Silent—Morning line favorite and Co-highweight giving 5 lbs or more to everyone except Alert Bay. His lifetime top is a 3, earning that figure on six occasions. A new top at 6yo, at 124, with 11 post seems unlikely. TG would likely write to throw him out altogether while Rick B. would say be sure to use him with your best opinions. He won the 3 races before the BC bounce, earning a 3 in all 3 of those events including a G3 6.5 furlong race on this course. Using underneath only.
Toowindytohaulrox—Phil D'Amato trainee has earned a "5" in 5 straight races, with 7 straight "6's" before that with one of those on dirt. Model of consistency, some will argue this is impossible, but regardless, too slow and poor post with a jockey I am unfamiliar with. Throwout.
Coastline—2nd D'Amato trainee intrigues despite the outside post. First time D'Amato on a horse that was bumped around stretch in last on Prelude to the Cup Day at Kee. Lovell trained that day, Casse prior to that race. Lightly raced on turf, figs of 3 on dirt in Oct, 4 on poly in August, 4 on turf at Gulf suggest a talent level that gets him close to these. If D'Amato can improve this one a few lengths from prior trainers on D'Amato's preferred surface of success, he can be used even lightly in the top spot.
Bottom Line—several horses in a tight range of figures that are useable but narrowing the possibilities including eliminating the fav from the win spot seems logical and likely. The Great War is the one I will focus on with a win bet and key him in first and second with Big Bane Theory, Alert Bay, Holy Lute, and Coastline in the opposite spot of TGW. In third spot I'll use the ones mentioned above plus Richard's Boy, Cazanova, and No Silent. $1 tri unit: 10 with 5, 7, 9, 14 with 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14=$24. $1 tri unit: 5, 7, 9, 14 with 10 with 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14=$24.
If you dislike The Great War and want to throw him out, box the other four in the exacta and/or trifecta at $1 unit cost of $12 for ex and $24 for tri (12-1, 5-1, 9-2, 20-1 on M/L) in a 13 horse field on a big day.
If you are looking to play horizontally, 5, 7, 9, 10, and 14. 5, 9, 10—A's and 7, 14 as B's if you like to use Crist's method.
Curious others thoughts on betting structure as I discussed recently and received several helpful posts, both on board and privately. Keep them coming if you have more insight in advance of this one. Thanks.
Good Luck!
#5 Soul Driver, trouble last 3. Just as fast as Om. Tyler has the best timing at one mile. Take notice.
Fairmount,
Happy Holidays and a great choice for ROW, nice rundown on a very competitive field.
I\'m price shopping here and really love the pattern on Rocket Heat who is the speed of the speed in here. His Sire Latent Heat\'s runners improve 3 points from 3 to 4 and this one is definitely heading south number wise.He doesn\'t have the stakes experience or class if you prefer compared to others in here for sure.
Hoping for 20/1 and I\'ll fire a shot on this one going coast to coast with Richards Boy sitting right behind him in a one two speed pop!
Big Bane has won one race in 2 years, Alert Bay is going in the wrong direction and giving weight, The Great War has only run one race that competes with this heat and No Silent spots too much weight for a wide left turn coming home.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Frank, Rocket Heat? Get the speed of speed part but not the pattern. 3 point new top, looks to bounce to me.
Like Richard\'s Boy who sporting the small pair.
The workouts or lack there of look troublesome for The Great War.
Frank I hear ya on Big Bane\'s lack of a win but the price is right and this one shows two good works. Coastline also shows two good works but is a step slower. For me it\'s exacta box of Richard\'s Boy, Big Bane, and Coastline and will probably play Coastline to win.
Happy Holidays! Only 134 days till Derby. T.
Richards Boy, good pattern and a good number on the downhill this spring. Seems like alot of horses either run well or poorly on the downhill consistently.
Happy Holidays to you as well Frank!
I certainly would never discourage anyone from a 20-1 shot. Personally though, I just can\'t use him. Latent Heat horses in my experience just never go further than 5 to 5.5. He is THE speed in the race for certain. Ironically, in trying to find solid facts to support my statement that Latent Heat\'s don\'t go further than 5.5 or 6 furlongs, I found that Latent Heat under Frankel\'s care won the Malibu Stakes earning a 111 Beyer. Looks like the best evidence I can provide that LH progeny don\'t do well beyond 5.5 is that LH\'s have a 16% winning percentage at less than 6 furlongs and only 13% at 6 furlongs to 7.75 furlongs. (Just trying to avoid the assertion police.)
As for Rocket Heat, he was clear in a 6.5 furlong dirt race by 4 lengths and ended up second. He ran over this course at 6.5 furlongs this year and after setting all the pace, packed it in when they hit the dirt. The race is worth watching as Frank Mihramadi decides in the stretch run to change voices to his own Trevor impersonation. Certainly I wasn\'t expecting that as I watched the replay. And I believe he was imitating Dave Johnson out of the gate but I\'m not for sure on that. Click on Watch Video once you get to the site listed below for your own watch and listen.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/race-results?startDate=6%2F26%2F2015&endDate=6%2F26%2F2015&trackLookupId=1663&type=AllowanceOptionalClaiming&statesBred=&searchStateBredPlacers=false
Will add Mr. Brightside to my Mathis Brothers Mile spread...Gallagher is a patient
developer.
40,000 people(perhaps) and a strong contingent at \"living room downs\"...why not ten
races and two P-5\'s plus another P-4 in the middle?
Three 2YO races out of the first five plus a cavalry charge in the Daytona...SA\'s
preferred outcome would be an opening day P-6 carryover...but to maximize handle on
big days they should expand the menu.
Caution suggested early in the card, and in general early in the meet.
Race 11 at GP....Gotachancetodance at 6-1 ml looks tough. In relatively light, should be on the rail for at least one turn and has a great pattern. Not sure the odds will hold but at 3-1 or better I\'ll be betting.
How can you tell my the sheets if a horse is the speed of the speed?
Take it one step further how can you guys tell what kind of running style a horse has by only looking at the sheets?
Thanks
John
Santa Anita Observations:
Things are warm and quiet here in Northeastern Pa.
Short sleeve shirts still in style.
Looking at the opening day card in total, the only horizontal opportunity I see is Carnal Knowledge on Netflix.
No compelling reason to TVG it until the Daytona where chaos may reign supreme. Quite a few turning back in distance and another group stretching back out form the 5, 5 1/2 distance to the downhill 6 1/2 at SA.
Think this race lends itself to a vertical wager.
Taking the opposite tack of Captain Frank on this leg.
Likely (odds based naturally) to key Alert Bay. Except for the slow paced paced ( 48.3, 113.1) Seabiscuit, 4 year old Alert Bay ran a new lifetime top in September. Has affinity for SA and has decent spacing coming into this event. Number power versus these is evident.
Like most of the off pace closing types, AB will need a decent trip to win but consider him a very likely top 4 finisher.
Will play around with a few of the longer shots like Big C, Big B (Bane ), Holy Lute and a small helping of the D\'Amato\'s.
Much of what I like to do is odds dependent, thus, hard to be definitive until scratches and odds are posted.
Safe to say I will be using Alert Bay as my key at 4 to one or better.
MATHIS:
This race has appeal for what I do not like more than any firm opinion on an entry that I do like. On number power, the TG range on the likely favorites is around a 5. That obviously makes OM a major player along with Perfectly Majestic and Crittenden (both have decent #\'s and are posted inside.).
Trying to avoid MOTODOM (being a Master Of The Obvious) instincts tell me that a TG 5 may not win this.
So I went shopping for some potentially tote busting values that might run better than the 5.
Giving consideration to:
1) Ground Rules- Sise last seen doing a rain dance....but still a modest 5/2 favorite in his first turf try the Let It Ride. At 12-1 or higher, with the rail, spacing and back # power (albeit on the dirt), have to use in any ticket.
2) Soul Driver (8-1 ML) apparent gate problems often compromise. Likely to close if the race fa1ls apart.
3) Vigilante (6-ML) 1st D\'Amato-- looks a bit slow but lightly raced 3yo with room to go forward.
As for the closing sequence of races, no opinions of any consequence. Think form will prevail in the 7th and 8th. The 9th quite chaotic.
Against my initial Carnal proclamation, I may abandon Ann Margaret for a late pik 4 \'spreading\' the 6th and 9th wile Cavorting with some Hot City Girls and Duchesses in the 7th. Will hope for an \"UNHAPPY\" Malibu with Marking, Watershed and Lord N as the main considerations.
Best of luck to all.
Bob
To elaborate, my bet is 14/ 1,2/ all, 14 /all/1,2 and I\'ll probably reduce the all to a few less than all with a few throw outs
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Fairmount,
Nice writeup and interesting longshot. I am not saying I am necessarily a fan of the favorite in a large field here, but what exactly do you think is wrong with post 11 going down the hill at SA? I assume you know the outside is actually the inside and a fairly significant advantage going 6.5 down the hill? post 11 is ideal. Post 13 would be ideal. Post 1 is a disaster....
Personally, I almost always best outside posted horses with local course experience going 6.5. That said, I am going to take a shot with Coastline if I can get the right price. D\'Amato can move them up, the horse has had talent for quite awhile, and has reasonable number power. With the ideal post and a move up trainer, have to take my shot.
Rob
TY
It will interesting to see how the tote shakes out, as there are several contenders and nobody stands out on figures.
Richard\'s Boy, Big Cazanova, Holy Lute, The Great War look fastest at around the 3/3.5 level. Alert Bay hurt by the weight but a must use.
The Great War has run the fastest with that TP Poly, stretched out and ran poorly. Shortened back up and ran 2 good races before the BC poor one. I\'ll toss that effort, and at anything close to the ML gets my money. Solid connections and Kent knows how to go down that hill.
I have a feeling Big Cazanova gets overlooked and is a must use underneath. Love route speed down the hill. Might even get my win money if TGW gets bet too much.
Difficult to go past OM at something to five. Since Gary got on and the shades came off this Munnings colt has been terrific. Showed a new dimension in last rating kindly off the speed though may have moved too early. Class of the race with a pair of graded wins and as such spots five pounds while shortening up a pole.
No bargain with a jumbled pace possible so adding the Tiznow colt for the hot pink. Vigilante needs a contested pace but he fires every time. A bit green, often the case with this pedigree, when first unveiled in Louisville before a sizzling final sixteenth six weeks hence. Johnnie knew what he had and delivered a pretty ride to break his maiden before the handsome bay traveled to Lexington and \"waited\" for the long trip going last to first with a big rail and well wide. Wayne worked him in the black on the lawn as he was nominated to the big stake there against older, then worked for maintenance and shipping before getting to new barn. Drew the three hole in the Hollywood Derby but scratched and has worked well enough since.
Playing the inside three in the La Brea.
RUN HAPPY ran off in his first work out here but Gary on for seven eighths Monday and he looked fabulous. Either of the regally bred royal blue colts could contend getting five pounds and both worked very well and bring their riders.
Last a crapshoot with a bunch of underachievers. So will do some shopping. Tuco will appreciate less weight, Lasix and more forgiving turns as rider returns from broken back, Hollendorfer\'s roan was given a prep and has been lights out in the morning since, and the Street Sense gelding who has been freshened and is a silly price on the ML. bbb
20-1 over 50-1 with the two \"outside\" posts down the hill.....
$1500 for $1 exacta. Wow.
Rob
And both D\'Amato horses. Thanks for your view on the 14.
The $1 exacta paid $762.20.
Good call on the outside posts. I do not have any statistics dating several years with respect to the DTH course and post positions but would love to see them. Certainly in this instance, you were accurate with your statement.
Trakus though says those two horses ran further than everyone else. 4375 feet for the winner and 4388 for the 2nd place Coastline. Coastline went further than the winner by 13 feet and that may have been the difference. Also, the real story in my mind is that they finished in 5.98 seconds and 6.09 seconds respectively, faster than everyone except Bench Warrant\'s 6.03. I guess it is plausible the outside posts allow for a more relaxed route down the hill and around the turn. The winner\'s connections loved that he was outside of horses as that is his preferred style for future reference.
I\'m sure you can imagine my dismay that Coastline didn\'t get there for what would have been a nice horizontal score in the pick 3 for $1. Was alive to The Great War for $2 (should have been $4 to TGW but I messed that up in my poor wagering). The 21-1 shot paid $1138.00 for $1 pick 3 ending in race 4. My guess is Coastline would have been your preference too based on your pre-race predictions. Thanks for the insight on the Downhill Posts as I will pay very close attention in my handicapping in the future on the rare occassions I look at the left coast.
Coastline was my pick and I walked away with no cash, since I only bet Coastline to win. This was after cashing the previous two races with longshots on WPS bets when they didn\'t quite get there. $44 and $20 to place and show. I got cocky, I guess. Still, I had a nice small profit on the day and got the annual calendar giveaway and got away before the traffic. Santa Anita needs to figure out how to handle crowds. It was not enjoyable today, long lines everywhere and no place to sit after paying the $10 clubhouse admission.
It is reminiscent of mighty Casey struck out and it\'s quiet in Mudsville.
We like to find something to take away from our ROTW projects. But before I get to that, I would like to commend Fairmount for an outstanding race choice and a well considered write-up. Ringato3 hit on key points with D\'Amato and the outside post positions on the track configuration. Let us not omit FrankD for his astute identification of the speed of the speed.
Reflecting back, I\'ve seen plenty of fast early fractions on that downhill zigzag hurdle the dirt layout. I just don\'t think of a turf sprints blowing up because of early fractions going downhill? But I think that is exactly what happened in general.
Rocket Heat ran the legs off of the figure horses I expected to contend. There was no short price favorite which left six contenders in the 4/1 - 8/1 range. None of them would have surprised me by winning and one of them just about had to get into the exacta probably two.
The first big surprise, for me, was not that Rocket Heat ran so well early, he is a 5F specialist and most of us expected him to be swallowed up just beyond the dirt strip. What I had not thought through was the effect he could have (and did) on that contentious group. I am usually very keen on factoring in pace and I should have realized Big Casanova*1 was severely compromised rather than think along with P-Dub and consider that one an after Christmas bargain.
The second surprise was the payoff. Lots posted here about depressed payoffs when one pricey horse is involved but I believe only the most astute or carefree bettors bet two or even three long priced horses on a ticket. The exacta pool was about $340K and $237K thereabouts for the trifecta. Large enough, I guess, for those who got boxcars not to be shorted.
*1 Big Casanova also apparently failed the start another weak link with horses unaccustomed to passing others.
Oh! and kudos to Marking. I thought he was solid in defeat. Didn\'t look to me as if Runhappy bounced or doesn\'t get along with his new conditioner and per TG analysis Lord Nelson was ready, not that it mattered because runhappy is an equine Forest Gump.
Lastly, seemingly large crowd in Japan with cool weather to watch $4.3M Grand Prix won by a very bettable 18/1 Gold Actor. So many people were cheering you\'d think American Pharaoh had just won the BCC @ odds on.
pp1 133-14 11%
pp2 133-16 12
pp3 133-11 08
pp4 133-17 13
pp5 133-11 08
pp6 130-14 11
pp7 127-14 11
pp8 109-11 10
pp9 90-11 12
pp10 70-9 13
pp11 41-4 10
pp12 19-1 05
\"should have realized Big Casanova was severely compromised rather than think along with P-Dub and consider that one an after Christmas bargain.\"
At 9/2 a toss on top. Played a bit underneath. He wasn\'t a bargain at that price.
I have a few buddies that love playing outside posts down the hill. No numbers to back it up, but I\'ve seen my share of huge prices come from there. With as much SA as I watch, I should have known better.
I don\'t have a dog in this fight loved Coastline yesterday but inside posts looked good to me in the upcoming 5th,6th,7th. Can make a case for the #1 winning all three races.