This is the way I use TG data and thought I\'d share it since the ROTW is free:
The first column is a grade I give based on the Thoropattern using the total of \"top\" + \"pair\" + \"off\" % total and using grade school process (85+=A, 75+=B,..).
The second column is the post postion of course, and the expected fig today based on the best # the horse ran in last 12 mos at today\'s dist ( or relevant dist) calculated with the TPattern. For those of you I shared this with at SAR, you can carry this on one piece of paper.
grade # expected fig today
D 2 (1.04)
C 7 (0.22)
B 6 0.94
A 4 2.70
F 10 3.32
D 3 3.88
B 5 3.88
F 1 4.36
B 9 4.98
B 8 5.34
I can\'t say that today\'s analysis from TG is far different in the way the expected figs came in, but the big advantage I\'ve found TY using the product is to put more emphasis than previous on TR tops (# 4,5,6) and the ThorPattern. For me, the TPattern gives me a grade - the fastest horse today is Valid, but the pattern indicates little likelihood of good performance - hence, I give it a grade \"D\". 70% chance he\'s somewhere close to an \"off\" race. Encryption I gave a \"C\" and expect an average race. This is where the TR 90 day data and grades really can identify some good overlays. I\'ll play Mexicoma and Encryption on top of valid/Mex,Encryp and longshot Ami\'s holiday (#5) who is slower for sure, but appears to be up for a good one with a nice 90 day TR angle. And he\'s 20:1 ML.
BTW - this sucks for 2YO...Hope I didn\'t bore you.
I am new to this, what do you think went wrong with your analysis?
Atakante:
I am not going to answer for Shanahan who, when not attending a Fighting Irish
football game, might be attending the races on either coast or somewhere in
the midwest.
As a newcomer you have not been privy to hours of conversation and many
threads discussing the efficacy of Thoro-pattern analysis. I can say that
there is even disagreement among the inTelliGensia at the highest levels about
said analysis. There are warnings and disclaimers throughout the introductory
literature noting that the Thoro pattern analysis takes the last 3 TG #s into
account (ir)regardless of surface, spacing, class, etc.
Valid, the winner of the Harlan\'s Hannukah stakes, came into the race with a
Thoro pattern of \"Off - Off - Off\". TP analysis showed that 3028 runners with
a comparable pattern had a dismal Top/Pair/Off/X distribution of 5%/21%
42%/32% -- not very encouraging.
Upon further review, Valid\'s 3 \"Offs\" were, starting with his most recent race,
a defeat at the hands of a Pletchermonster in the BC Dirt Mile, a stakes win
at GP, and a stakes win at Mth. Furthermore, Valid\'s \"Offs\" were as fast or
faster than most of the field\'s \"Tops\".
Again, I am not breaking any new ground here, and this was a rather extreme
case of a \"misleading\" Thoro- pattern analysis.
Well put. The facts are that of the 4 top rated horses, they were the exacta, albeit a short one. Yes, as Richiebee says, the prediciton of what Valid would run today was an \"off\" at best - but even that is faster than the rest which I should taken into account.
No one really commented on it - silence takes over after BC I\'m afraid at least till Sunshine MIllions Day and not later I hope - so I wouldn\'t say I had the analysis wrong, I just bet it wrong. I think that puts me in select company!
I\'m going to do it again this week while in sunny NY and post it.
Alan - did TG post final figs? Curious.
Thanks for the explanation. This year I have done quite some reading online and Amazon recommended books on handicapping before I landed on Thorograph. I am an engineer by trade so no stranger to numbers and statistics in that sense. I find thoroughbred racing fun to watch and a fascinating complex puzzle to solve that is good to keep your gray matter sharp. I liken the pattern reading to technical analysis in stocks...something most reputed investors see as necessary evil to understand market sentiment, but without a sound scientific basis unlike value investing for example.
Maybe b/c I am a novice, I concentrated on the overall Thoro ratings and Valid jumped at me as the clear class of the filed. This colt never ran a truly bad race since his 3yr. old campaign on turf it seems. So it was an easy win bet that paid off for me. However, my exactas pairing him with Encryption and Mexicoma tanked. To me the most bothersome was seeing the paltry performance from Encryption. Also, I did not see Mr. Jordan being a factor other than early speed. My best explanation is potential rail bias of Gulfstream putting outside post positions at a disadvantage...but looking at other races the same day it seems quite a few outside pp horses made it to the winners circle so my theory is suspect at best.
I realize there is no sure thing and we are playing the probabilities but there has to be some explanation to why Encryption (and Mexicoma) were so underwhelming that day. Just thinking out loud...
The first and most important answer to your question came from you-- it\'s all about probability and percentages, no individual result means your analysis was wrong.
As it happens Alan (who wrote ROTW this week) and I had had an ongoing discussion about that race for about 10 minutes leading up to the start. One important point to remember is that horses going North/South when it\'s cold(er) up here usually take about a month to acclimate. I told Al that especially with both Mexicoma and Encryption coming off efforts (a top in one case and an 0-2 in the other) they were horses I could see running off races today and running well next time.
There are other questions concerning Encryption, like a) about the negative figure coming at a time Breen was getting huge figures at Dodge City-- whoops, I mean Parx- and that b) even if you disregard that, he had a history of tailing off after big efforts, and c) the huge effort could have cooked him under any circumstances.
And on top of all that there\'s the Pletcher in Florida stuff...
Welcome aboard.
Shit. I\'m playing against computers (with technology soon to be available to
the common man) AND engineers.
And if I manage to somehow select a live horse who isn\'t hammered from 7/2 to
8/5 after the gates open, my selection is likely to get devoured by a Pletcher
monster, taken down by an incompetent steward, or ridden by a malnourished kid
who is hanging on for dear life.
Not to mention Rocky (Mathcapper), who has a huge arsenal of statistics and
other published data at his disposal. Rocky, by the way, is as nice a person as
you could expect to meet, anywhere. Despite his analytical mind, his admirable
facility with the mathematical and all the aforementioned data at his disposal,
Rocky NEVER neglects to pay homage to his father, who got Rocky hooked on
clocking will pays at an early age.
A reasonable man would run from this game like his ass was on fire, but having
been afflicted with equihippicitis (don\'t bother looking that up, it\'s a
neighborhood word) at an early age, my chances of escape are negligible.
One interesting thing about Rocky is that he does not appear to own a shirt that has a collar.
JB,
He is a true back yard disciple of the Uncle Bill fashion line. Rocky can go anywhere with me collar or not and gain admittance. :)
I consider myself a newbie to this as well,great conversation.
Ha! - not even on Travers day. Five years as an engineer, and another ten in the stock market where I had to wear a shirt and tie every day (as atakante may be able to attest) turned me into a rebel without a cause.
I actually had to throw one on the other day - it must\'ve shrunk about three sizes sitting in my closest because I couldn\'t come close to fastening that last button around my neck.
Richie,
To paraphrase Olsen Johnson, \"Not only was it authentic Staten Island gibberish, it expressed the courage little seen in this day and age.\"
Remember, when a horse\'s ass is on fire, he runs back into the barn. That\'s what we have done all our lives.
Dick
richiebee Wrote:
> A reasonable man would run from this game like his
> ass was on fire,
I had that the other day after excessive intake of habaneros. I couldn\'t run anywhere.
> but having been afflicted with equihippicitis
I hope that isn\'t what kept you out of the TG Open this year.
After spending weeks, here, reading about CRW\'s and various and sundry other automated and semi-automated interlopers in this game taking bigger and bigger bites out of the shrinking pools, I nevertheless hold steadfast in my belief that, paraphrasing the comic page sage, Pogo, \"I have met the enemy, and he is me.\" The game ain\'t getting any easier, but I ain\'t getting any smarter, either.
Dick Powell Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie,
> Remember, when a horse\'s ass is on fire, he runs
> back into the barn. That\'s what we have done all
> our lives.
> Dick
Mr. Powell is referring to a rather horrifying equine character quirk. Once a
horse is removed from a burning barn, it needs to be fastened to something to
prevent it from returning to its stall even as said stall is engulfed in flames.
This was first told to me by a trainer on my first day as a night watchman. He
told me this right after he told me that before I evacuated any thoroughbreds,
I was to move his expensive pickup truck away from the barn and then save his
wife\'s buckskin pony.
Well, Princess Kennedy just ruined the ROTW party. Luckily, I was expecting this! Looked like she could win it all easily if she could save some ground. The question is what is the lesson learnt?
The lesson will turn out to be that if you redboard here you will get ripped a new one.
And by the way, she did save ground, and did not win.
promised to do this, forgot with a busy work schedule this time of year...
different topic - NY \"rats\"...I was live in the pik 4 with 4 horses at the end. not the winner, which paid over $6K. I\'m not with you guys who think you can\'t win $$$on the inner...if I see tomorrow that the 6 (only horse with top jk/tr in race) was the TG analysis, I\'ll ...well, I don\'t want to think about that...
Fair enough, I did not bet on this race as there was little time to react. But it seemed that the argument against Princess Kennedy was a bit superficial and the rest of the field seemed not that far ahead of her numbers-wise. Overall, the race did not look like a great betting situation so I skipped it.
1. The winner Above Fashion was 7 points faster than second place Princess Kennedy on TG sprint race #\'s. Above Fashion suffered a couple or more points of ground loss. One or the other of the top two finishers did not run comparable to their previous tops.
2. Apparently, either Princess Kennedy & Flashy Appeal jumped up significantly or Above Fashion ran off her top like the favorite Speightstastic and still won.
3. Curious that the two lightly raced horses both scratched either could have been read to improve. Probably just coincidence. While it is reasonable that Above Fashion wasn\'t the favorite off her terrible preceding race. It is odd that the crowd made Princess Kennedy the second choice not on speed figures? Causes me to suspect inside information given how well she competed, possibly a winner with an untroubled trip. The win pool was only $60K.
The analysis makes good sense based on the TG #\'s. It may be a stretch to ascribe class as the term which attracted bettors to Princess Kennedy. The fact that she was bet down and ran so well is the stuff conspiracy stories are made of.
Just because this did not turn out to be a good example of the old class vs speed argument doesn\'t change anything, I think all those arguing class rules have died of old age everything is becoming obsolete. Innovation needed,
In the immortal words of our dear friend Harvey Pack!
\"Have a good life\" The original MR Good Life rents a burn barrel from Miff in the Bowery last time I checked.
Tread carefully here newbie the water gets deep awfully fast. Enthusiasm and curiosity are always welcome. Many here will go out of there way to assist and offer help.
JUST LOSE THE TUDE!!!
Frank D.
Chemists posing as trainers have buried \"class\" long ago. Toss in the fact the the condition book at most circuits now makes one really dive in to delineate from one heat to another!
I guess XY Jet in todays 4th at Gulf simply \"outclassed\" that field for SR Navarro!
Frank D.
I hadn\'t previously seen the 4th race at GP. FrankD\'s reference caused me to watch the replay and take a closer look at the field,the chart and the trainer.
First of all, XY Jet, made the other contenders look like anything but a gang of grade 3 dirt sprinters in FL. A class which always contains at least one jet however fragile. The final time close to the track record of 1:08 and the fractions are eye popping, maybe the rider Emisael is partly to blame he seems to be a hot property.
This \"new class\" issue holds water for me. Navarro, most of whose winning pcts are hovering around 30% is noteworthy in that his best category is first off a claim @38%. A sample size of 194 and yes a modest $2.54 R.O.I.
I guess this does put him at the head of the class with the likes of Preciado, Josephson, Rodriquez, Rainwater, Ness, Stinebaugh, Ziadie and others I am not familiar with.
What pissed me off the most though was stewards taking down my #6 @ Los Alamitos in the 3rd come on he was a sure thing just on the class drop.
Did I notice most odds on horses fail today? Another phenomena that is curious to me.
I guess it is the holidays and we are supposed to be nicer....
But boy, this string has some interesting points.
A ridiculous \"told u so\" redboard, which was then sort of retracted.
Then we get a \"shouldn\'t have DQEd that horse that was an OBVIOUS DQ, because he was a \"sure thing on the class drop\". I used the horse and needed him, but the jockey made a bad move, going to right hand late, causing him to take a sharp turn into a horse that he barely beat. The DQ was a no brainer, the question was down to 2nd or down to 3rd. Could make a case the 3rd place finisher was just making his move when taken out of the race.
Frank D, while I hate the move up guys as much or more than u do, XY Jet got a an extreme speed biased track and a loose lead. A good recipe.
Gulfstresm the last few days a bit retro back to the days of a few years back when speed was gold almost every day. People that get bias numbers probably know that last year was VERY DIFFERENT, as there was almost a meet long tiring track that often punished speed and didn\'t help it.
Rob
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 1. The winner Above Fashion was 7 points faster
> than second place Princess Kennedy on TG sprint
> race #\'s. Above Fashion suffered a couple or more
> points of ground loss. One or the other of the top
> two finishers did not run comparable to their
> previous tops.
>
> 2. Apparently, either Princess Kennedy & Flashy
> Appeal jumped up significantly or Above Fashion
> ran off her top like the favorite Speightstastic
> and still won.
>
> 3. Curious that the two lightly raced horses both
> scratched either could have been read to improve.
> Probably just coincidence. While it is reasonable
> that Above Fashion wasn\'t the favorite off her
> terrible preceding race. It is odd that the crowd
> made Princess Kennedy the second choice not on
> speed figures? Causes me to suspect inside
> information given how well she competed, possibly
> a winner with an untroubled trip. The win pool was
> only $60K.
>
> The analysis makes good sense based on the TG #\'s.
> It may be a stretch to ascribe class as the term
> which attracted bettors to Princess Kennedy. The
> fact that she was bet down and ran so well is the
> stuff conspiracy stories are made of.
>
> Just because this did not turn out to be a good
> example of the old class vs speed argument doesn\'t
> change anything, I think all those arguing class
> rules have died of old age everything is becoming
> obsolete. Innovation needed,
Shifty Sheik put a stake in the heart of blind class handicapping, once and for all.
\"Shifty Sheik put a stake in the heart of blind class handicapping, once and for all\"
.....Oscar is rolling in his grave!
Frank,
XY Jet \"only\" ran like TG -2 yesterday, I say only b/c J.Navarro\'s rep precedes him, Oscar would be proud.
Gulf strip, so far, kinder to speed as Rob noted. Last year they added dirt and it definitely slowed the surface. Naturally,this was never told to the gambling public, par for the course for the Clueless Clowns.
Of derby interest, Baffert on the board yesterday with an expensive 2yr old Mor Spirit who won a 2 turner with a TG 2.5ish.Makes him dangerous if he moves forward with Baffert in control.
Doesn\'t Big Blue have a knack of beating undefeated teams?
Mike
Merry Xmas Frank,
Not sure if your post is tongue in cheek or not. \"Class\" has dominated this sport for centuries.
As for XY Jet, his previous effort, strongly suggested he would handle the class hike. From the chart \"produced blistering fractions while unasked\".
bbb
Tavasco erroneous wrote: \"I guess this does put him at the head of the class with the likes of Preciado, Josephson, Rodriquez, Rainwater, Ness, Stinebaugh, Ziadie and others I am not familiar with.\"
______________________
I am not certain what database or what search yielded these names. One name sticks out to me that doesn\'t fit.
Bradlee Rainwater (and his now deceased father Owen). Owen was a 2yo training maestro back in the 70\'s at Fairmount and Cahokia Downs I\'m told. He reappeared in racing in the 2000\'s in Chicago and his son is now a trainer at Hawthorne and Arlington, occasionally shipping elsewhere in the Midwest. His horses don\'t run a hole in the wind or 1:08, just ask Rick B. or billk5300s who follow Chicago closely I presume.
Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tavasco erroneous wrote: \"I guess this does put
> him at the head of the class with the likes of
> Preciado, Josephson, Rodriquez, Rainwater, Ness,
> Stinebaugh, Ziadie and others I am not familiar
> with.\"
>
> ______________________
>
> I am not certain what database or what search
> yielded these names. One name sticks out to me
> that doesn\'t fit.
>
> Bradlee Rainwater (and his now deceased father
> Owen). Owen was a 2yo training maestro back in
> the 70\'s at Fairmount and Cahokia Downs I\'m told.
> He reappeared in racing in the 2000\'s in Chicago
> and his son is now a trainer at Hawthorne and
> Arlington, occasionally shipping elsewhere in the
> Midwest. His horses don\'t run a hole in the wind
> or 1:08, just ask Rick B. or billk5300s who follow
> Chicago closely I presume.
Owen Rainwater was active in the 60\'s at all the Chicago tracks, and believe the history goes back beyond that. Ageless Indian.
BBB,
Happy Holidays to you and yours.
A bit tongue in cheek as a GR-3 isn\'t much of a step up and last winter this one was suspected to have some ability.
Sr Navarro has a knack for doing amazing things. The sire though a small sample size has his runners improve 6 points from 2-3. That is exactly the jump this one took from a 6 at 2 to a 0 in his previous heat which was a 5 point new top.
I\'ll give the Gulf strip a speed friendly rating, I\'ve played it all week.
His total and complete destruction of a decent field with such ease to another 2 point or so new top? Amazing display of hay, water and oatsmenship.
As for \"Class has dominated this sport for centuries\" you are 100% correct. The past tense of \"has dominated\" is exactly that, It\'s not quite as severe as the world ending with Oscar Barrera but it sure as hell changed things quite a bit.
You\'re a bit older than I am from your 50 years of capping references. Cutting my teeth in the 70\'s I also was told that class, class, class is what mattered most.
On a day with super testing, detention barns and quality stakes horses I\'ll still agree with you.
However:
Back in the day condition books consisted of basic allowance conditions, NW 1, 2, 3 etc... How many NW of 3 do you ever see anymore at any venue? Claimers had a specific worth and trainers found their correct levels of competition.
The results from the usual suspects around the country on a daily basis more than speak for themselves. The one thing T-graph does for sure in no uncertain terms is measure performance ability. On a daily basis we see some AMAZING NEW PERFORMANCES that no longer have a thing to do with class.
If one does not include the \" juice guys\" in their daily capping factors they are simply naive and Bowery bound.
Good luck,
Frank D.
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> BBB,
>
> Happy Holidays to you and yours.
>
> A bit tongue in cheek as a GR-3 isn\'t much of a
> step up and last winter this one was suspected to
> have some ability.
>
> Sr Navarro has a knack for doing amazing things.
> The sire though a small sample size has his
> runners improve 6 points from 2-3. That is exactly
> the jump this one took from a 6 at 2 to a 0 in his
> previous heat which was a 5 point new top.
> I\'ll give the Gulf strip a speed friendly rating,
> I\'ve played it all week.
> His total and complete destruction of a decent
> field with such ease to another 2 point or so new
> top? Amazing display of hay, water and
> oatsmenship.
>
> As for \"Class has dominated this sport for
> centuries\" you are 100% correct. The past tense of
> \"has dominated\" is exactly that, It\'s not quite as
> severe as the world ending with Oscar Barrera but
> it sure as hell changed things quite a bit.
>
> You\'re a bit older than I am from your 50 years of
> capping references. Cutting my teeth in the 70\'s I
> also was told that class, class, class is what
> mattered most.
> On a day with super testing, detention barns and
> quality stakes horses I\'ll still agree with you.
>
> However:
> Back in the day condition books consisted of basic
> allowance conditions, NW 1, 2, 3 etc... How many
> NW of 3 do you ever see anymore at any venue?
> Claimers had a specific worth and trainers found
> their correct levels of competition.
>
> The results from the usual suspects around the
> country on a daily basis more than speak for
> themselves. The one thing T-graph does for sure in
> no uncertain terms is measure performance ability.
> On a daily basis we see some AMAZING NEW
> PERFORMANCES that no longer have a thing to do
> with class.
>
> If one does not include the \" juice guys\" in their
> daily capping factors they are simply naive and
> Bowery bound.
>
> Good luck,
>
> Frank D.
Not looking to split hairs here. Oscar B essentially heralded the Brave New World, where many a horse changed barns, returned under colors spitting fire with a heightened capacity for raw performance, cranked out 3/4/5 vastly-superior efforts -- then often disappeared for an extended period -- or forever.
You\'re a riot. And you never, ever learn about the assertions.
One of these days I\'ll sit down and make a list of horses that won stakes for TG clients after being claimed-- Taking Risks and Buffles did it on the same card at Mth, one of them being a GI. Claims were for 20k and 14,5k. Claramount is another that comes to mind.
Then there are all the ones that had been running in allowances and small stakes when we bought them privately to run in big ones-- Super Frolic, Student Council, Even The Score, and many, many others, (88 horses that won around 250 stakes). The entire premise of what I do buying horses-- which I have had more success at that anyone else-- is the OPPOSITE of the \"class\" nonsense.
If Dennis Heard and Glenn Lane are reading the board they can probably add a few.
Rainwater may win an occasional claimer or allowance race. When his horses are in form they run. There aren\'t any secret potions associated with money moves on his horses. I agree with Fairmount1 in that he doesn\'t fit \"the list\".
billk5300s Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rainwater may win an occasional claimer or
> allowance race. When his horses are in form they
> run. There aren\'t any secret potions associated
> with money moves on his horses. I agree with
> Fairmount1 in that he doesn\'t fit \"the list\".
IMO it\'s hard to be on any \"list\" if you only
send one or two over each week.
This was the MO of the senior Rainwater (RIP), and
the son seems to be keeping the same pace. Scraps
only here, I think.
My apologies about Mr. Bradlee Rainwater. My first thought for the list was simply trainers to keep an eye on. Yes, it included some suspended/banished guys my error. Navarro\'s record had my head spinning.
According to Equibase, Mr. Rainwater has started 100 races in 2015 and is 17w, 19p, 14s, so he is hitting the board 50% of the time. The few occasions I had to notice they were not Pletcher prices.
Simply put he is on my Radar.
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My apologies about Mr. Bradlee Rainwater.
>
> Simply put he is on my Radar.
No apologies needed, carry on.
I am tracking a small-sample guy at (get this) Mahoning.
Like Rainwater, he doesn\'t start many, but his strike rate
is simply outstanding, with horses running off the screen
at giant prices.