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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: jbelfior on December 02, 2015, 08:45:54 AM

Title: Private Zone
Post by: jbelfior on December 02, 2015, 08:45:54 AM
From today\'s Bloodhorse (quoting Rene Douglas).This should be very comforting to everyone who helped PZ go off at even money.


\"I blame myself, I don\'t blame the jockey or the trainer—that\'s got nothing to do with it,\" Douglas said. \"I really feel guilty because he gives us everything he\'s got every time he steps on the racetrack. I know when the horse is not doing well, and me making that decision to race that day, I feel bad about it.
\"The horse was tired after the Breeders\' Cup and he only went into the race with four or five days of galloping. There\'s no way you\'re going to win a race like that, I don\'t care how good you are. You\'re not going to beat those kind of horses that way.
\"Brian only had a little time around him (before the Cigar Mile), and he\'s a horse you need to get to know, and he didn\'t have enough chance to get ready heading into the Cigar Mile. We never had a chance to work him, because obviously he didn\'t want to do it the day it was planned, and at that point I should have made a decision not to go. I just should have said, \'No.\' \"  
Douglas said Private Zone, who this year won the Priority One Jets Forego Stakes (gr. I), the Belmont Sprint Championship Stakes (gr. III), and the Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II) in seven starts, came out of the Cigar Mile without major issues. At multiple points in the race, regular rider Martin Pedroza took back on the plucky bay, and also looked down over his left shoulder at Private Zone\'s left hind leg several times.
\"He came out good,\" Douglas said. \"He has little 6-year-old issues, nothing serious, just wear and tear. I know a lot of people criticized Martin for taking ahold of him. I prefer he would have let him go a little bit, but in my eyes the result also would have been the same no matter how he rode him. He ran six furlongs and then he got tired. He wasn\'t ready for that race.\"


Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: Boscar Obarra on December 02, 2015, 09:45:37 AM
Looked like a green 2yo out of the gate. Climbing , rank, bobbling at one point. I didn\'t see the post parade, so can\'t say if he telegraphed this,  but very odd for an experienced horse to act that way.
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: jbelfior on December 02, 2015, 10:17:28 AM
He\'s detoxing.

Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: Silver Charm on December 03, 2015, 07:24:34 AM
The horse is salty and naturally fast. They didn\'t need to blitz him in his works before the Breeders Cup to have him leave the gate running. having said all that he was wheeling back in 4 weeks after having mostly rest between races all year. The mile was a stretch and it was a good field.
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: ringato3 on December 03, 2015, 12:15:32 PM
Silver

U missed the point.  (Again?)

When trainers run horses that aren\'t ready to run, the player is getting screwed (again).

On sheets, PZ and Tonalist a toss up.   But anybody with any concern about race dynamics had to play PZ as he had NEVER been run down when he had a loose lead.  

But when the jockey is looking at the horses hind end 4 strides out of the gate and down the back stretch more than a couple times, the players got robbed.  

All of us players, while disagreeing on most everything else, should want full transparency in the game and fields with horses that ready to run.  

U want to pat yourself on the back for red boarding that off the 4 weeks rest u called a bounce.   Kudos.  Horse was lame and not ready to run.   Should NEVER have been enteredd

Rob
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: miff on December 03, 2015, 12:33:32 PM
Rob,

Agree. Tons of players money in all pools on a horse who looked very tough going in....was a dead piece in the gate.

Mike
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: TGJB on December 03, 2015, 12:46:35 PM
I tossed PZ as far as I could (and still didn\'t hit the race with Clement\'s other horse beating me out of a score), because I read PZ as being ready to back up.

But the other issue is, why are we taking the excuses after the race at face value? Connections make excuses afterward all the time-- we used to have a thing on this board with \"There\'s always a reason\" when a horse bounces off a big effort. Yes, transparency is important-- if it\'s true.
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: miff on December 03, 2015, 01:28:52 PM
There was little chance PZ could run that badly, never has in last 10 starts, bounce read or not, horse was not sound. A blind man puts PZ on a loose lead.
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: TGJB on December 03, 2015, 01:49:21 PM
I put him on a loose lead. And I threw him out of the top 3.
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: JimP on December 03, 2015, 03:56:02 PM
I didn\'t see the TG Analysis for PZ that day. What did it say? Just curious.
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: Silver Charm on December 03, 2015, 05:31:28 PM
Indeed. It was a fairly easy read.

He was giving 5 lbs to most (not Tonalist) stretching to a distance not his best, bore out in his last, had run 6 times at 4, 4 ties at 5 and now was trying 7 races at 6 in some of the shorter spacing than he had tried before this year.

I posted here 2 months ago to be on the lookout for over the top horses this fall and Moreno was pulled up and retired in the Woodward that very day. Loose on the lead or not he provided ZERO value and I would have felt the same way even if Douglas had publically come out and lied and said \"he has never been better\". Which wouldn\'t be the first time that has happened....
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: richiebee on December 03, 2015, 07:59:20 PM
Silver:

By going back 3 years into PZ\'s past, you have gone back too far by 2 years and
51 weeks.

I believe all you needed to begin to handicap this race was the knowledge that
PZ refused to work the Saturday before the race. Martin Pedroza flew cross
country to work the horse and apparently told Brian Lynch PZ \"felt great\"
during the aborted work.

This was reported in DRF, this was reported in Paulick, before the race.
Ringato is absolutely correct to wonder why, given this troubling non workout,
the stewards were not more protective of horses, jockeys and pool participants.

You can call PZ quirky or whatever, but a horse refusing to work (I do not know
if he refused to break out of a gallop, or began his breeze and pulled himself
up) should be sent to Rood and Riddle, not to a competitive Grade I.

I wouldn\'t be surprised if trainer Navarro became former trainer Navarro by
voicing a concern that PZ might not have been suited for further racing this
year after his effort in the BC Sprint.

Kind of sad that what looks like a great day of racing at GP Saturday will be
affected by heavy rains.

Best of luck to all this weekend in the continuing battle against the miracle
working master chemists and the robots.
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: davidpty on December 04, 2015, 03:53:22 AM
Was a problem in Panama to load PZ into the gate (2-3 minutes) every race, we are surprise when make debut in USA loads easily, we think from that moment he left the mania in Panama, now looks is back to their previous tactics.
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: miff on December 04, 2015, 04:39:09 AM
PZ loaded fine, broke like a shot and thereafter moved like crap. Would bet one of his \"few\" issues reared it\'s head.

PZ ran 24-48-1.13 and stopped, bounce my derrière!
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: jbelfior on December 04, 2015, 08:09:29 AM
Still no reference in any of these posts to how well Tonalist handles non-Belmont turns. Actually gets passed for a moment by the great Full of Mine approaching the quarter pole.
 

Good Luck,
Joe B
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: TGJB on December 04, 2015, 10:32:42 AM
I think Al put up Pletcher\'s horse, not sure. I boxed three against PZ.
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: TGJB on December 04, 2015, 11:05:10 AM
Mike-- your point being he had everything his own way and ran bad, so it couldn\'t have been a bounce?
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: miff on December 04, 2015, 11:10:14 AM
If you watch his action early on, he goes crabby,not anything like his normal stride. Think he was hurting more than a true bounce, anything is possible.
Title: Re: Private Zone
Post by: jbelfior on December 04, 2015, 11:47:31 AM
I was looking at the final installment of my daughter\'s wedding when Mshawish struck the front. Not sure what happened. Perhaps the foot issues reared up again.

Weird race.

Good Luck,
Joe B.