Just a couple of TG BC final figs in disagreement with the other major services.Most notably Songbird, which came up like TG 1.25 to TG 2.25 elsewhere.Off the clock, no way to get her with a pair.
All in all not a whole lot of differences,TG, Beyer,TF pretty much in agreement with Rags to the slower side per usual.
The total range of corrections for the two turn races was 1.5 points, with that race and the Classic\'s correction coming up 1/4 point different. I took off about a point to get to the Juvy colt figure.
There are huge differences in ground between Songbird and the first two colts, Beyer doesn\'t use ground, best guess is to get the colts to a reasonable figure he had the track slower for routes, and therefore gave her faster. Her figure is as solid as a figure can be, as you can see by looking at Rachel and Nickname, and there are already a couple of new tops behind them.
The race I didn\'t like was the FM Sprint, but I think it\'s right. We\'ll see.
What about other cali dirt runners Hoppertunity (3,5 pts new top), Stellar Wind (4 pts new top), Bailoutbobby (4,75 pts new top) and Swipe (3 pts new top), how do they hold up compared to other services? I guess you\'d have to adjust for ground for it to be comparable at all as it were a lot of ground in those four figures..
JB,
Just an fyi,using Rags constant for 10/31, they have Songbird faster than TG and it was a wire with little ground loss adjustment.Never saw that before, ever.
Mike
Based on the final figures, tough day for Team McLaughlin.
Four runners over two days; all were OFF.
Bob
I would note those were not the only Cali horses that ran in the BC, and not the only ones that ran new tops.
That is true
We\'re on the site do you get these numbers?
Ty
Race of the week!
Coupla things. First of all, I can\'t be surer of figures than I am of the Songbird race, and I say that even though they\'re 2yos.
Second, I just started looking at the Jake figs, but the first thing that jumps out at me is that what they did with the BC Turf is just silly, laughable. And I mean using THEIR figures to do the race. Vito etc.-- assuming you still have the BC sheets, write those figures on them. Then tell me the last time you saw a GI grass race where every single horse ran at least two points worse than his RECENT top. Look at how that race looks if you take off two. I\'m going to use the term again--figure making malpractice.
As far as how their figures came out looking on the two days compared to ours, I\'ll let everyone draw their own conclusions. It\'s tougher with Jakefigs, since they only post last number (and they do sometimes post the entire sheets of races when it makes them look good, so you can draw your own conclusions about that too), but the guys who used their sheets probably still have them.
Lol thanks Pete right in front of my nose
Couple more things that jump out, looking at the BC Jakefigs:
They got the Juvy fillies too fast, as Miff mentioned, and the BC Turf slow, as I did. Also the Turf Sprint and Distaff, too slow.
And they completely f----d up the ground for the top 3 finishers in the Sprint.
Normally have to break the sound barrier to get a fast Rag fig, tough crowd.
California Horses In The Breeders Cup Races
This study is to assist those that suspect west coast TG #\'s are slower than east of the rockies TG #\'s. i.e. the belief that eastern horses fail when shipping west because of a tg# bias. Plus a rationalization of why west coasters shipping east succeed in part.
Key
- indicate improvement from west coast top
+ indicates regression from west coast tops
Turf
Summary
Total = 29
Top = 8
Pair= 11 <= 3 of top
Off = 7 >3 <10
X = 3 >= 10
Conclusion
1. As mentioned previously there were a few noteworthy major jump up tops.
2. O\'Neill had more bouncers than jump ups led by Jimmy Bouncer, of course, who went back 10 points after running his top of 6 five times in a row. ? doesn\'t look like a shaky pattern to me, but his crash & burn could have been caused by anything. The jump up by Bailoutbobby has to be considered surprising. Poster child for racing them into shape after a long campaign.
3. Doesn\'t look to me like there is anything here to prove a # bias. 27% new tops may seem high especially with the attention getting jump ups. c/b skewed by several lightly raced horses pointing to this race. Hoppertunity another jump up unexpected by me but meaningless in this context because he has run all over the country previously? Taris & Kobe\'s back also insignificant tops. So 17% new tops is a more representative figure. I don\'t think it proves or disproves anything to those already with strong opinions.
4. When one has 10-12 horses most of which with tops only a point or two apart coming together from all points of the compass it sure does present some puzzling races. BC great idea. Even Network T.V. did a good job!
Detail
hard aces -2
big john +6
ralis +101
swipe -3
nyquist -33 (route) 0 (sprint - route)
obviously +2
masochistic +19
big macher +3
kobes back -1
wild dude +4
sharla ray +3
super majesty +71
taris -1
jimmy bouncer +10
marchman +3
no silent +3
right there +2
forever darling +7
land over +42
songbird 0
linderis +5
bailoutbobbie -43
my sweet addiction +31
warrens veneda +11
stellar wind -4
hollywood don +3
dressed in hermes +11
hoppertunity -32
makoo 0