My printer must have malfunctioned and just kept duplicating numbers. Either that, or Tonalist is a machine and not an animal. Regardless of distance, pace, or track surface, he runs an identical performance? Any chance he is once again the key to the final Classic figs?
No. Not unless you want to give out a lot of crazy new tops.
JB, I wasn\'t serious. Just a bit sore that one of the best looking sheets I have ever seen would turn out to be such a bust. Ultra consistent and very fast.
Has to be more than one poor bastard that went all in on this horse. Pre-race, all I could hear was Chic Anderson\'s voice exclaiming \"Tonalist is moving like a tremendous machine\". At least on figs, he would have dusted Big Red, no?
From the introduction of TG\'s BC seminar and other TG promotional language, paraphrased - Thoroughbred race horses are not machines. They have form cycles that is why we put our data on a graph.
A Little later, the BC comes at the end of a year long season of racing many horses wear down resulting in a significant percentage of off figures. including two y/o\'s. Many trainers have noticed this phenomena resulting in extra rest coming into this weekend.
Hindsight is as we know 20/20 but is 3/1 on running a sixth straight -33 in a row smart? I read where he was rank in the early part of the race looks like the iron horse finally went off form. I hope we see him again next year. Turf may have merit.
Horses will put up their best performance numbers for any number of reasons or a combination of two or more of them. Pace, distance, form cycle, jock, post position, track, etc.
Tonalist prefers to be outside of horses and prefers Belmont\'s surface and sweeping turns because he\'s a Forego type horse. Can\'t play this game with any level of success if you simply attach a performance number to a horse-- you have to know the horse as an individual including its connections.
Tonalist was a toss for me for two reasons-- being at a tight turn track like Keenland and for drawing the rail. But what do I know-- I keyed Frosted.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Well...I had Frosted in my bet too.
Frosted was within a length of Keen Ice and Tonalist, both -3 horses. Honor Code was just a length to their better....Maybe they all ran their -3\'s?...Course if you think so Hard Aces had to come up with a -3 also.
Somebody mentioned something about AP having \"bottomed that field out\"...In \"hindsight\" he pulled a Commentator on them, but the trainers of the also rans ought to be embarrassed. Not only did they concede a tactical edge to a horse that made no sense, they also didn\'t even have their horses fit enough for second.
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Horses will put up their best performance numbers
> for any number of reasons or a combination of two
> or more of them. Pace, distance, form cycle, jock,
> post position, track, etc.
>
> Tonalist prefers to be outside of horses and
> prefers Belmont\'s surface and sweeping turns
> because he\'s a Forego type horse. Can\'t play this
> game with any level of success if you simply
> attach a performance number to a horse-- you have
> to know the horse as an individual including its
> connections.
>
> Tonalist was a toss for me for two reasons-- being
> at a tight turn track like Keenland and for
> drawing the rail. But what do I know-- I keyed
> Frosted.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
More unsupported assertions. And in this case demonstrably untrue.
Look, it would be bad enough if the facts were true and you were building a cause and effect relationship on top of it. But a) go watch the last two Gold Cups and tell me Tonalist doesn\'t want to run inside and between horses, and b) his figures were right in line at all tracks, all tops, until his last.
Jerry:
Unsupported assertion? Seriously? He has 1 win outside of Belmont (a maiden win at Gulfstream).
Didn\'t say he can\'t run inside. I said what he prefers. If you don\'t believe me ask John V(actually save yourself the trouble I already did).
As far as his numbers at other tracks: not interested in negative numbers earned from wide trips at tracks where he\'s 1 for 7.
Good Luck,
Joe B
He either can run his race at those tracks or he can\'t, and he has proven he can. Who he faced has a little bit to do with whether he won or lost. Figures aside, you really think his Whitney loss to Liam\'s Mao and Honor Code was a worse effort than his Gold Cup win?
I don\'t have to ask anyone about how he runs inside. That\'s what figures are for. And it\'s amazing, once you adjust for ground the figures come out the same. But, of course, he\'s been MORE likely to win when he saved ground. Of his last 3 wins, in two he was 1w on the second turn (rounded off), and was 2w in the other. Prior to the BC, of the 8 races we show on the sheet, he was 3w or more in the other five. All losses.
So yeah, being outside has been a great idea.
Well back from the breeders cup and wanted to take time to thank TGJB and
staff for putting all the time in to the seminar. I ended up solidly in
the black thanks to them and had a great experience at keeneland.
On the negative side I liked stop charging m going in ( loves 1 1/8,
runs well fresh, and training sharp) and replaced her and wedding toast
with calamity and chatterbox which cost me the 838 pick 4.
On the positive side I had a Mongolian reversal in the turf sprint and
didn\'t really like before seminar.Big hit there.
Observations- I thought keeneland did a tremendous job. I drove right
in to my parking lot without any delay, and drove back out after both distaff
and classic maybe 5 minute wait time. Seats were 3rd floor grandstand right
in front of green room ( where our own J Covell0 was hanging out apparently)
No lines for betting, bar and bathroom 50 feet from my seats. Got to see
my good friend Rusty with \"slow\" Dothraki close up for third to monster
Songbird, and collect 200k. Witnessed a piece of history, all in all just
a great time. Hope most of thorograph brothers did ok
Jerry:
Not sure what any of that has to do with making a decision on him at the window last Saturday.
Tonalist was a toss at Keenland just as he would have been a toss for me if the BC was at Saratoga or Santa Anita. A negative 3 performance at Belmont puts him there. The same performance at the other 2 tracks does not.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Joe -
My impression (purely in retrospect) is that when they try to put him in the race early going long (which I thought they did Saturday to stay close to AP), he fails to settle and doesn\'t fire. That would explain Clement\'s fiddling with blinkers.
I see that they\'re thinking about the Cigar Mile next. I\'d guess with blinkers back on.
I was standing on the rail during the post parade and Tonalist appeared very agitated, was loud where I was with lots of screaming fans, it seemed the crowd or maybe something else was bothering him. I am not surprised he received a rank notation, he became a toss for me after viewing him on track.
5 for 7 at Belmont and 1 for 8 every place else speaks volumes. While his numbers elsewhere are good, he rarely wins, that\'s the bottom line.
Please. If that were true logically he would have done what he did the other times he ran outside Belmont, which is run his top, and lose.
Try to cash a \"top\" at the window...let me know how you make out.
The point is he did NOT run one this time, if he had it would have been fairly close. And if wins were what mattered in handicapping we wouldn\'t need figures.