Take it to AP again but in reverse. Hold my ground saving position and let him back off of me because they wont want a repeat of the Travers duel. And then I slow the pace way down. He has tried to rate off the horse 3 times and it hasn\'t worked. Maybe Pharaoh isn\'t the same and maybe Frosted can take them all the way....
Yeah, that is going to happen....
Lay off the whiskey silver......
Rob
All things considered i wouldn\'t be surprised. Tell me ringato do you think it\'s a secret AP is most likely the controlling speed ? If you\'re racing your horse against AP in this scenario do you adjust or just wish something happens ? Re: Travers
Your comment about Frostman and \"look what happened last time\". With ground calculated basically same figure. The manner in which you stated the outcome is as if Frosty the frosted frostman collapsed and finished down the track. Moreover, he comes back on 3 weeks rest and runs out of his skin.
RE: wishing
My golf coach once told me \"you can wish with one hand and s@@t in the other and see which one fills up first\".
Flight
U live in an alternate reality if u wouldn\'t be surprised if Frosted wires the classic.
Exactly which of his career races puts him on the lead, wiring this field?
Leave for position. Maybe.
Leave so hard that AP can\'t get over the top and is forced to sit off, allowing frosted to then slow it down, as silver says, is just silly.
If that is your best strategy, don\'t get this weekend. U will be parimutuel fodder.
Frosted may run well and I think he will, but he he isn\'t going to wire
Rob
On the subject of Whiskey what can I say Kentucky is about horses and brown liquor. The subject of pace in the classic isn\'t as simple. I have repeatedly read that the race will have no pace? AP in a cakewalk because of pace advantages.
Some pace thoughts:
Smooth Roller ran with Bayern for six furlongs before taking over. Certainly the horse can run 6F with AP. He may stop and finish last, he may bounce and never get started, yet it is not unrealistic to expect him to be pressing AP on the outside for the 6f+.
The same for Gleneagles. If he takes to the dirt and I think he could due to his like for hard surfaces. Moore cautious about taking dirt is also likely to be pressing AP or AP & Smooth Roller on the outside. He is a proven miler and is odds on to go that far imo.
I like Silver Charm\'s idea that that they send Frosted at least thru the first turn to avoid kickback, save ground and deny AP the one path. Frosted could well be the beneficiary of the pace, getting first run ground saving trip.
I\'ve also read, somewhere, that Keen Ice is a new horse and may be a part of the pace even go for the lead. No that sounds crazy, but, that still sounds crazy. One thing is clear AP is hard to beat by just following him around the track! The trainers & riders must know that!
So the great NY hope lands on Tonalist and Honor Code. Certainly those two and others just run the same race time after time. 7/2 is better than one can normally get on Tonalist. Many and many more will be keying him in the verticals inflated payoffs if he fails.
Obviously I\'ll settle to agree to disagree on the surprised or as you put it, I\'m paraphrasing, \" anyone would be living in an alternate reality if a horse that didn\'t necessarily figure to get sent and did\".
Re: dollar bills and gambling fodder
Any day you feel up to it I\'d love to go heads up.
First off I do not drink.
Second please take your know it all attitude and stick it where the Sun doesn\'t it shine. You offer very little here on this Board other than to tell everyone else how stupid they are. Clearly by even just this string alone that\'s not just my opinion but one similarly held by many others.
Thirdly don\'t ever assume you know someone who you don\'t know. I suggest you spend more time looking into the mirror talking to yourself. Obviously you are impressed. Most of the rest of us are not!
Silver,
Seen enough of your posts to know you don\'t understand the game. I feel for you. The game is hard when you have some knowledge. Without it, impossible.
maybe another Kate UPton post will help?
Rob
Flighted,
Anything is possible in this game. I am sure we all know that.
But handicapping and saying something like Frosted is going to wire the field, is just silly. Yes, it is a 1 in 10,000 shot. So it could happen. But if it does it is an anomaly. You don\'t handicap things like that. You accept them if they happen.
As for the heads up. My email is public. If you are serious and play for serious money, feel free to reach out.
Rob
Even if AP gets loose he\'s been pretty keyed up on edge this week according to some reports.
If he relaxes fine,but if he\'s rank and pulling he\'ll get run down by at least one maybe more.
No clue on the tactics of Frosted,Roller or the wildcard Gleneagles.
AP trouble if he runs -3 relaxed.
Race shape looks favorable but this doesn\'t have to be the same horse off a two month layoff that ran in the Haskell.
Are you planning to offer some handicapping insight into this race? I would like to hear how you\'re handicapping it.
Agreed JimP. There no insights as usual just more commentary about how dumb the rest of ALL of us are. Someone smarter than me once said that if you argue with clowns you soon begin to look like one. I\'m done with this one after I cleanse the spit and filth off with a shower.
Take it from a good source, Honor Code is training out of his mind and doing great. He once ran a minus 1.5 going 6.5F and will save ground for sure on the first turn. From there like the rest of them he will need some luck.
Jim
I think I said it a bunch of times. With the current pace scenario, can\'t attack AP on the merits and with golden horn a stand for me, I need to find value in the first two races of the late pick 4.
Will be singling golden horn on all tickets
AP is an A, Tonalist a B and frosted a C. (Not because he can wire them!
No creativity for me late in the sequence.
Rob
Ok. I saw your earlier comments about GH and AP but I wasn\'t sure what your play was going to be. But I have it now. Thanks for responding.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Take it to AP again but in reverse. Hold my ground
> saving position and let him back off of me because
> they wont want a repeat of the Travers duel. And
> then I slow the pace way down. He has tried to
> rate off the horse 3 times and it hasn\'t worked.
> Maybe Pharaoh isn\'t the same and maybe Frosted can
> take them all the way....
Silver, I\'m thinking your way. Depending upon the early track, that may be a good strategy. It\'s always good to save going around.