I wanted to inquire about betting strategy for the BC as it\'s an area that I\'m trying to refine.
I\'m going to play the Pk4s and then going to try and stay disciplined to play rolling DDs or Pk3s.... but then I start saying.. oh well let\'s play a tri box or two, maybe an exacta etc. I\'m sure you all know what I mean, getting all juiced on a race or horse and looking back on your wagering history and going WTF was I doing, why did I place 7 bets on that race?!?!
Do you have a specific BC wagering strategy, that you\'re able to stick to, above and beyond considering an individual race or horse you like, or is it more fluid and situational?
You don\'t have to pull your skirt all the way up, but would be interested to hear how some of you structure your betting or if you have a philosophy you at least try to follow - TIA
PS. I will be at SA both days, slugging it out
Same strategy as always. Make sure you leverage your strongest opinions as strongly as you can. I suggest you right your opinions down on paper. Then after laying out your planned wagers, make sure they reflect that. And be ready to adapt based on what you see. Not so easy to do in horizontals.
One idea that\'s worked for me is to set aside a small portion of the bankroll for action plays. Unless you have superhuman discipline (I personally do not) it is very tough to sit out two or three Breeder\'s Cup races in a row waiting for the race (or sequence) you really like. A few friends and myself pool our funds on big days, we\'ll set aside 5% of whatever the pool is for action bets on races we don\'t have a strong opinion on. Satisfies the desire to play these very interesting races and keeps us away from the two-minutes-to-post impulse bets that always seem to cost more than intended.
Thank you, working against a clearly stated objective is solid advice with most things in life and not something i\'ve ever done formally in my betting.
Would be interested to know if more people consider themselves horizontal or vertical players or does it vary by race or situationally?
Papa and MJ excellent advice.
I have 3 categories that I put horses in. A-B-C. A horses are my win bets/vertical keys and also horizontal keys. I mix and match horizontals, depending on price. Not all A horses get a win bet, they may just be keys in horizontals, hoping to get a price in the other legs.
I also post the number next to the horses name that I think they will run today, weight adjusted.
The Classic horse in the seminar is an A. With the scratch, may just play verticals and horizontals and skip the win bet. The others mentioned will be B/C depending on where I decide they fit from a bet structure standpoint.
The 2 mentioned in the Distaff would be an A. Mix and match with the other contenders.
Juvenile Turf I\'ll put the most likely winner as an A, the live longshot a B, and the contenders with bad draws C. Depending on the tote, I might bet that B horse to win if he offers value (which probably will be the case).
If I have a win key, I\'ll structure vertical wagers with the other contenders.
P3 I\'ll play combinations of:A/A,B/A,B and A,B/A/A,B and A,B/A,B/A. If I can get 2 races with A horses I might hit it twice. same structure with P4.
I play too many races, so as MJ suggests on your strongest opinions give those horses more of your bankroll than a race where you don\'t feel as strongly. Put aside a nominal amount for \"action\" as Papa suggests.
If a race doesn\'t offer any value, like maybe the Dirt Mile, skip it. Or just toss a few bucks at a P3 bet.
Looking at past BC with previous notes, I have hit a lot of horizontals using this method. Many winners are on my sheet (many given out by JB, some not).
Some are good at horizontals, some verticals. The truly blessed both. My history shows I am much better at horizontals than verticals, I have wasted a lot of capital chasing the elusive trip/super. So knowing your strengths and weaknesses is important.
P-Dub:
Two day BC extravaganza followed by a meaningful Jets/ Raidaz game, the first in many years....
P Dub is to young to remember Heidi; that lil B$&*#$
Huge game for wild card implications.
The Heidi Bowl
On November 17, 1968, the Oakland Raiders score two touchdowns in nine seconds to beat the New York Jets–and no one sees it, because they're watching the movie Heidi instead. With just 65 seconds left to play, NBC switched off the game in favor of its previously scheduled programming, a made-for-TV version of the children's story about a young girl and her grandfather in the Alps. Viewers were outraged, and they complained so vociferously that network execs learned a lesson they'll never forget: "Whatever you do," one said, "you better not leave an NFL football game."
The game between the Jets and the Raiders was already shaping up to be a classic: It featured two of the league's best teams and 10 future Hall of Fame players. By the game's last minute the two teams had traded the lead eight times. The game's intensity translated into an unusual number of penalties and timeouts, which meant that it was running a bit long.
With a little more than a minute left to play, the Jets kicked a 26-yard field goal that gave them a 32-29 lead. After the New York kickoff, the Raiders returned the ball to their own 23-yard line. What happened after that will go down in football history: Raiders quarterback Daryle Lamonica threw a 20-yard pass to halfback Charlie Smith; a facemask penalty moved the ball to the Jets' 43; and on the next play, Lamonica passed again to Smith, who ran it all the way for a touchdown. The Raiders took the lead, 32-36. Then the Jets fumbled the kickoff, and Oakland's Preston Ridlehuber managed to grab the ball and run it two yards for another touchdown. Oakland had scored twice in nine seconds, and the game was over: They'd won 43-32.
But nobody outside the Oakland Coliseum actually saw any of this, because NBC went to commercial right after the Jets' kickoff and never came back. Instead, they did what they'd been planning to do for weeks: At 7 PM, they began to broadcast a brand-new version of Heidi, a film they were sure would win them high ratings during November sweeps. Before the game began, network execs had talked about what they'd do if the game ran over its scheduled time, and they decided to go ahead with the movie no matter what. So, that's what NBC programmer Dick Cline did. "I waited and waited," he said later, "and I heard nothing. We came up to that magic hour and I thought, 'Well, I haven't been given any counter-order so I've got to do what we agreed to do.'"
NBC execs had actually changed their minds, and were trying to get in touch with Cline to tell him to leave the game on until it was over. But all the telephone lines were busy: Thousands of people were calling the network to urge programmers to air Heidi as scheduled, and thousands more were calling to demand that the football game stay on the air. Football fans grew even more livid when NBC printed the results of the game at the bottom of the screen 20 minutes after the game ended. So many irate fans called NBC that the network's switchboard blew. Undeterred, people started calling the telephone company, the New York Times and the NYPD, whose emergency lines they clogged for hours.
Shortly after the Heidi debacle, the NFL inserted a clause into its TV contracts that guaranteed that all games would be broadcast completely in their home markets. For its part, NBC installed a new phone–the "Heidi Phone"–in the control room that had its own exchange and switchboard. Such a disaster, the network assured its viewers, would never be allowed to happen again.
Thanks for taking the time to share this P-Dub. Your approach looks thorough and tight, def qualities I\'m looking to improve upon -- hopefully we\'re all cashing some nice tix this wknd.
Frank,
I\'ll be 52 next month. I barely missed being aware of that game. 1970 was my first year.
Richie,
A meaningful game in November, been awhile for that. Carr, Cooper, Mack and others are building a solid foundation.
Del Rio and I graduated same year, same town, different schools. Tremendous athlete (him, not me) he lettered in everything and was good at everything. Caught Randy Johnson at USC, All American linebacker. We played in the same Babe Ruth league as teenagers, a few guys went on to the bigs. Always been a good guy and he\'s made a big difference with Oakland.
Loser this Sunday buys first round whenever I can make it out your way. I gotta get to Saratoga some day.
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P Dub is to young to remember Heidi; that lil
> B$&*#$
I\'m going to assume that was meant for Heidi
Definitely intended for Heidi, Paul.
Two things. There was no OT in 1968, so there was no way the game was going to go later than 7:10. They never came back to this amazing game because the little darlings could not wait ten minutes for their precious dirndl-clad what Frank said.
Second thing. I was as big a Raider fan as an 11-year-old in suburban New York could be in those days. The eye patches and crossed swords. The Mad Bomber. Silver and Black. Sold! Watching it with my dad and brother. The commercial break seemed too long. Then Heidi started. I bolted upstairs and got the game on the radio. My dad and brother are still downstairs shaking their heads, while I\'m upstairs hooting and hollering and relaying the incredible results.
There\'s a reason that date lives in television history infamy. Jets did go on to beat the Raiders in the AFL Championship and the Colts in the Super Bowl, the latter per Joe Namath\'s guarantee.
Hard to believe given the current televised football schedule, but back in 1968
there were four televised football games per week in NY: Two on Sunday (NFL on
CBS, AFL on NBC),and two on Saturday (NCAA on ABC and the High School Game of the
Week with Marty Glickman on WPIX).
The one hour documentary on man for all seasons Glickman (I think an HBO Sports
production) is rather good.
Hey Richie
Don\'t forget the Notre Dame game every Sunday morning, those were great too.
Ah the memories! As a kid I looked forward to This Week In Pro Football, Later This Week In The NFL with Pat Summerall, Charlie Jones and Tom Brookshier.
Growing up in Kentucky we usually only got to see Dallas and whoever they were playing, and the Browns game. Rarely, the Bengals.