There really seems to be a lot of early foot in this race. Runhappy is he doesn\'t break running will soon be running the only way he knows to run. On the lead.
I don\'t know how many Sprints have had an opening 22 Qtr but I doubt its many. Private Zone held well in last years Sprint when he chased Work All Week in a 21 Qtr but his ability to sit 2-3 back and close and win is in question. Classy older horse has #\'s but figures to be 7/2. Could be a value trap even though I love this classy rags to riches success story....
Remington Park horse Ivan Fallunov might be good here with the right draw/trip.
He can sit a few back off that anticipated 21/44 and go on the turn.
Hoping for a middle out draw.
I think all BC sprints over the last 5 years have gone in 21 and change. I think there is a big chance of a second tier closer winning here if they can work a ground saving trip based on the figs but it won\'t be because they went 22.
Holy Boss has 2 numbers this year that could put him in the picture with the right off the pace trip. Interesting longshot to consider in the exotics as everyone is writing him off after the experiment in the Phoenix.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
just got interesting. private zone a toss for me from the 13
MonmouthGuy Wrote:
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> just got interesting. private zone a toss for me
> from the 13
Nyquist and Songbird also drew very wide.
I had 2 scenarios as I looked at Private Zone and these were Pre-Draw. One is that if he is in the middle he will have to sit 2-3 back in behind horses with some kickback. Something he hasn\'t dealt with all year even though he has faced some pretty good ones.
The other scenario was if he drew wide he could avoid the kickback and rate a wide trip but at the same time he NOW losses all Number Power he has because of lost ground. And does he punch in and go by others when called on?
The 5/2 ML is a joke. Runhappy off the Phoenix win and the blistering work will go favored. I don\'t like him and he may be a throwout. Slow break in last, drifted 2-3 paths late and then works sub 1:10. Something isn\'t right here.
This race is wide open....
FWIW, the below tweet from the service that recommended purchase of RH. Reading between the lines a bit, this does not appear to be have the same level of confidence seen previously on RH tweets.
From a #HerdDynamics point of reference #Runhappy will not be afraid of his peers nor afraid to compete against them.
Gerard-
I work with Kerry Thomas at said service that recommended Runhappy as a yearling.
He is training extremely well, and the camp is confident.
We didn\'t recommend RH with sprints in mind, but he is ultra-talented, so here we are one win away from a championship.
Ill Bred,
The Horse Whisperer!.Amazing the services people use today, vs 20 years ago, to buy/select horses.
Mike
Wish you guys the best of luck. He is a good story coming from Ellis Park to CRUSH the field at Saratoga. Ms Borelli is a pleasure to the eye and has displayed a very capable hand for her horse.
The inside post will help but my concern is that if they come after him early he will be in a different zone of his own. And if he is forced into a 21 flat then anything can happen. Not a good spot for a 3-1 or 5/2 shot. Perhaps a better spot to take a stand against. Its a sport and a game but its also gambling!!
At 30/1 ML he\'s getting my $.
Silver,
In this country,Private Zone never won a race in which he was not on the lead or vying for it, never passed a horse and won yet. If you feel he\'s not getting or fighting for it, he\'ll have to win from behind a horse which would be a first.
Mike
Congrats to you guys. He ran great and he will win the Championship.
I went for the Value Trap with Private Zone thinking the 44 halves he usually runs was gonna have him there. And when they straightened for home I was almost counting my money. Took a Track Record to beat him. The best horse won!!!
Runhappy ran faster than PZ on the clock on 8/29 and on the track today.
Ill-Bred,
Congratulations to you and everyone involved with Runhappy!! I\'ll go eat my hat now.
Gerard
Yes, on raw times that\'s true.
Remind me late in the week when I have time, I\'ll post both races from that day. Run Happy is the only one from that race who has run faster, assuming this is a new top, which is likely. Almost no shot I got it wrong, at least on what you can tell so far.
JB,
Runhappy and PZ raced 30 minutes apart on 8/29 and you felt track changed speed, a very tough sell.Only TG has PZ faster than Runhappy on 8/29 even after adjusting for weight. Going off the horses vs clock, when there are other races at the same distance, a slippery slope imo.
Mike
And yet, we have what they have done before and since to look at.
The whole point of figures is that they correlate to future figures. If they don\'t there\'s no point using them.
Most of the time but many horses run a fig that they never repeat, ever.
Yes. Exactly. That\'s why we look at all the horses in the race, not just the winners.
I can\'t see anything wrong with Runhappys past figures, this horse is a winner who have ran neg 1,75 and neg 1 in the last two with trouble in his last, a developing 3yo who did his greatest race today when he needed it the most, nothing shocking there imo. Got a good trip too and Private Zone was used hard. If you ever tried to make figures yourself you would know that it would be silly to just go by the raw times because it\'s not just about track speed when you\'re making figures. This is actually why the TG-figs are superior overall. Even though they always could be better.
Thanks guys. I loved seeing Runhappy have to pass horses to get the win.
I watched the race from the winner\'s circle around the 1/8 pole, and I could tell he was digging in and cutting into PZ at that point. It was one of those moments...