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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Silver Charm on October 25, 2015, 10:22:34 AM

Title: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: Silver Charm on October 25, 2015, 10:22:34 AM
There really seems to be a lot of early foot in this race. Runhappy is he doesn\'t break running will soon be running the only way he knows to run. On the lead.

I don\'t know how many Sprints have had an opening 22 Qtr but I doubt its many. Private Zone held well in last years Sprint when he chased Work All Week in a 21 Qtr but his ability to sit 2-3 back and close and win is in question. Classy older horse has #\'s but figures to be 7/2. Could be a value trap even though I love this classy rags to riches success story....
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: big18741 on October 25, 2015, 05:41:49 PM
Remington Park horse Ivan Fallunov might be good here with the right draw/trip.
He can sit a few back off that anticipated 21/44 and go on the turn.

Hoping for a middle out draw.
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: MonmouthGuy on October 26, 2015, 03:39:00 AM
I think all BC sprints over the last 5 years have gone in 21 and change. I think there is a big chance of a second tier closer winning here if they can work a ground saving trip based on the figs but it won\'t be because they went 22.
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: jbelfior on October 26, 2015, 05:03:46 AM
Holy Boss has 2 numbers this year that could put him in the picture with the right off the pace trip. Interesting longshot to consider in the exotics as everyone is writing him off after the experiment in the Phoenix.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: MonmouthGuy on October 26, 2015, 10:48:10 AM
just got interesting. private zone a toss for me from the 13
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: Strike on October 26, 2015, 11:31:24 AM
MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> just got interesting. private zone a toss for me
> from the 13


Nyquist and Songbird also drew very wide.
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: Silver Charm on October 28, 2015, 06:55:58 AM
I had 2 scenarios as I looked at Private Zone and these were Pre-Draw. One is that if he is in the middle he will have to sit 2-3 back in behind horses with some kickback. Something he hasn\'t dealt with all year even though he has faced some pretty good ones.

The other scenario was if he drew wide he could avoid the kickback and rate a wide trip but at the same time he NOW losses all Number Power he has because of lost ground. And does he punch in and go by others when called on?

The 5/2 ML is a joke. Runhappy off the Phoenix win and the blistering work will go favored. I don\'t like him and he may be a throwout. Slow break in last, drifted 2-3 paths late and then works sub 1:10. Something isn\'t right here.

This race is wide open....
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: Gerard on October 28, 2015, 07:51:29 AM
FWIW, the below tweet from the service that recommended purchase of RH. Reading between the lines a bit, this does not appear to be have the same level of confidence seen previously on RH tweets.

From a #HerdDynamics point of reference #Runhappy will not be afraid of his peers nor afraid to compete against them.
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: Ill-bred on October 28, 2015, 08:30:53 AM
Gerard-

I work with Kerry Thomas at said service that recommended Runhappy as a yearling.

He is training extremely well, and the camp is confident.

We didn\'t recommend RH with sprints in mind, but he is ultra-talented, so here we are one win away from a championship.
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: miff on October 28, 2015, 08:42:57 AM
Ill Bred,

The Horse Whisperer!.Amazing the services people use today, vs 20 years ago, to buy/select horses.

Mike
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: Silver Charm on October 28, 2015, 08:43:24 AM
Wish you guys the best of luck. He is a good story coming from Ellis Park to CRUSH the field at Saratoga. Ms Borelli is a pleasure to the eye and has displayed a very capable hand for her horse.

The inside post will help but my concern is that if they come after him early he will be in a different zone of his own. And if he is forced into a 21 flat then anything can happen. Not a good spot for a 3-1 or 5/2 shot. Perhaps a better spot to take a stand against. Its a sport and a game but its also gambling!!
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: toppled on October 28, 2015, 10:35:20 AM
At 30/1 ML he\'s getting my $.
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: miff on October 28, 2015, 11:19:52 AM
Silver,

In this country,Private Zone never won a race in which he was not on the lead or vying for it, never passed a horse and won yet. If you feel he\'s not getting or fighting for it, he\'ll have to win from behind a horse which would be a first.

Mike
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: Silver Charm on October 31, 2015, 12:02:50 PM
Congrats to you guys. He ran great and he will win the Championship.

I went for the Value Trap with Private Zone thinking the 44 halves he usually runs was gonna have him there. And when they straightened for home I was almost counting my money. Took a Track Record to beat him. The best horse won!!!
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: miff on October 31, 2015, 12:10:09 PM
Runhappy ran faster than PZ on the clock on 8/29 and on the track today.
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: Gerard on October 31, 2015, 12:42:02 PM
Ill-Bred,

Congratulations to you and everyone involved with Runhappy!! I\'ll go eat my hat now.

Gerard
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: TGJB on October 31, 2015, 12:53:42 PM
Yes, on raw times that\'s true.

Remind me late in the week when I have time, I\'ll post both races from that day. Run Happy is the only one from that race who has run faster, assuming this is a new top, which is likely. Almost no shot I got it wrong, at least on what you can tell so far.
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: miff on October 31, 2015, 01:02:17 PM
JB,

Runhappy and PZ raced 30 minutes apart on 8/29 and you felt track changed speed, a very tough sell.Only TG has PZ faster than Runhappy on 8/29 even after adjusting for weight. Going off the horses vs clock, when there are other races at the same distance, a slippery slope imo.

Mike
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: TGJB on October 31, 2015, 01:21:57 PM
And yet, we have what they have done before and since to look at.

The whole point of figures is that they correlate to future figures. If they don\'t there\'s no point using them.
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: miff on October 31, 2015, 01:25:59 PM
Most of the time but many horses run a fig that they never repeat, ever.
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: TGJB on October 31, 2015, 01:31:10 PM
Yes. Exactly. That\'s why we look at all the horses in the race, not just the winners.
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: Furious Pete on October 31, 2015, 01:32:51 PM
I can\'t see anything wrong with Runhappys past figures, this horse is a winner who have ran neg 1,75 and neg 1 in the last two with trouble in his last, a developing 3yo who did his greatest race today when he needed it the most, nothing shocking there imo. Got a good trip too and Private Zone was used hard. If you ever tried to make figures yourself you would know that it would be silly to just go by the raw times because it\'s not just about track speed when you\'re making figures. This is actually why the TG-figs are superior overall. Even though they always could be better.
Title: Re: Private Zone is Not a 21 horse
Post by: Ill-bred on October 31, 2015, 07:54:07 PM
Thanks guys. I loved seeing Runhappy have to pass horses to get the win.

I watched the race from the winner\'s circle around the 1/8 pole, and I could tell he was digging in and cutting into PZ at that point. It was one of those moments...