Just read this, interesting as each one mentioned will most likely be overweight in the pools.
\"Each BC Pick 4 has a huge single in Liam\'s Map, Songbird & Golden Horn. Blow up the tote board if 1 loses\"
But which one is most likely to lose?
Liam\'s Map fans will most certainly be holding their breath at the draw. Drawing post 10 or wider will be cause for concern.
Songbird also must avoid a wide post and will face fillies that have he capability of improving rapidly- Rachel\'s baby and Tap To It (especially with the near 2 month break between starts)
Golden Horn has had a long season. The Arc is a grueling race. Of the prohibitive favorites, I would think \'Horn\' is the most vulnerable off the 4 week turnaround, the ship, etc. Don\'t know who can step up to beat him, though. No Theatricals in the American group.
As many have stated, post positions will be important, as always.If they all draw towards the far outside, it will make the betting more interesting.
Mike,
Hard to take a hard swing at any of them with conviction.
Songbird has demolished all her fields and several she beat came back to run well. 2 year old fillies can be temperamental, so maybe based on that if she is too short you could take a small swing at her, but not based on what she has done on the racetrack. Perhaps an outside post could hurt her? I like Rachel\'s baby as she has run well and been gutsy, but nowhere near brilliant like Songbird.
Liam\'s Map, another I could only swing at if he draws poorly. BAsed on what he has done on the track, hard to believe he is vulnerable. The only thing I keep wondering about is Pletcher backing off the Classic, knowing there is really no early gas in the race, except AP. If he thought this horse was 100% have to believe he would have taken a shot. How can he know he can\'t get the 1 1/4. Nothing on the track indicates this. Sure was tired at the end of the Whitney, but the fractions were vicious on a closer\'s track. Looked fine in the Woodward at the end.
Golden Horn would be vulnerable IMO if Flintshire had come. Never saw an article as to why he wasn\'t coming. Our Turf horses are horrendous. Slumber and Big Blue Kitten? Really? In the past betting against Arc horses has been a good angle, but it seems this year there aren\'t many options. Additionally, this is Keenland, which has the lush grass course that the Euros like, as opposed to Santa Anita or Gulfstream, back in the days when the BC ran there.
I am not sure any of them are truly vulnerable Mike. Which is one of the reasons this punter is not as amped as usual for the Breeder\'s Cup. Don\'t get me wrong, lots of chaos in other races for sure and lots of live price horses, but maybe not so much in the races you are pointing out.
Rob
Rob,
If these three draw well, there\'s always a stand and spread in the other legs. Huge pools will ensure better than expected pick 4 payoffs even if the overweights win.
For me, the draw will most probably determine whether these 3 may be vulnerable as nothing in the pp\'s or figs show knocks.
Mike
Flintshire was either going to run in the BC or the Japan Cup. Due to some vaccine issue, he could not do both and they opted for Japan Cup.
I\'ll weigh in here:
Turf--Golden Horn, a monster, yes, but also a monster pushed significantly in the Qipco Irish Champion Stakes. And let\'s not forget the an abrupt left handed turn (despite a right hand whip) he took in deep stretch that would have been an automatic disqualification in the US. I\'m convinced that Shining Copper will be the rabbit for the Ramsey\'s and GH will sit second or third, make his move around the far turn, and from there, he\'ll either win convincingly, or as I suspect there can be a number of entrants in here (Red Rifle, Twilight Eclipse, BB Kitten and The Pizza Man) who have numbers that are competitive here challenged him to the wire. For me, I\'ll take a stand against GH, and if he wins, I\'ll clap in respect.
Juvenile Filly--Songbird, me thinks hands down that she is probably the most likely winner on the BC card. Albeit, I\'ll bow to the \"experts\" who will note that any 2 year old at any time can suddenly have the racing \"light bulb\" come on and run a number significantly better than the race before. The trouble is predicting when that is going to happen.
Mile--Liam\'s Map, what to do with this one? Connections don\'t want anything to do with Pharoah, so they choose the \"easier\" mile, and what supposedly is the guaranteed winner\'s share. As we all know, nothing is given in this sport, so I can see LM get beat just as much as I can see him winning by 10. In the end, I see ALOT OF EARLY SPEED in this race, making me think of taking a stand against the Fav, and once again, will probably clap with respect if he does cross the wire first. (looking at possible upsetters including Wicked Strong and Red Vine.)
Just my two cents short of a dollar.
No evidence that Liam is strictly one dimensional speed, has sat off horses with success more than once. Would not want him down inside with horses in front of him and horses to his outside.
Golden Horn is fairly tractable. He has been on the lead, just off the lead, and closed from mid pack in his prior races. His connections have a history of usually trying to send a horse when they draw inside to establish position and avoid being shuffled back. Although he has run well and won from on and off the pace, my understanding is they feel Golden Horn is even better coming from off the pace. Shining Copper is drawn right next to him in the 2 hole, and I can\'t see any scenario where they would try to outsprint that one early, and there really isn\'t much else in the race in terms of early lick. So I\'m going to handicap this race with the assumption that Golden Horn will let Copper clear off in front of him and assume a stalking position in the second flight saving ground all the way around. Would make him tough to beat if he runs his race IMO.
Cage Fighter adds to the mix as well. This is not going to be easy for Golden Horn. Would not want to be on the inside on a turf that\'s sure to be soft if weather forecast is accurate.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Does the addition of FTL for Found give you any thought she could take him this time? Or do you believe his on the front end effort against her was not his best?
I assume you have watched GH\'s replays. How was he not DQ\'ed in the September 12th race? If that happens on BC Day this year, in the stretch, he is coming down, right? Especially after last year\'s debacle that taught us a length in the stretch is worth more than a length at the start?
More importantly, many on this board seem adament in the past that such a move by a horse is a sign of something being \"wrong.\" I used to scoff at reading such a statement on here but now I take heed. Curious if anyone has these thoughts about Golden Horn after watching replay of the Quipco Irish Champion Stakes.
Also, in the Arc, GH goes completely wide and separate from the rest of the field in the opening stages before Frankie settles the horse into a good spot. You call the horse \"tractable\" and I call him crazy. Is he so good he just does whatever he wants during the race? Sure looks like that Arc run was a gut wrenching one to beat Flintshire and Treve the way he did.
TGJB, would you be willing to post Flintshire\'s sheet for some Euro context? Or tell us the number Flintshire earned at Saratoga?
The wide trip at the start of the arc was the plan the entire time, trainer spoke of it after the race.
The sheet for Flintshire (GB) is attached.
If you watch the replay of when GH got beat, he fought the jock for the first 3/4 of the race and never relaxed. Watch how he keeps turning his head. Wasted lots of energy and wound up beaten a neck. If he doesn\'t settle early in this one and comes up empty in the drive, sure he could be beat. Hell, anyone can be beat if its not their day. But not settling is not the norm for him. I think that was more a factor of him having been sent in the race prior to that and then being too keen after the 6 or 7 weeks off. He\'s relaxed just fine early on in his last two since.
On the other hand, this will be his 4th race in 10 weeks at 4 different tracks and he\'s had a long ship. From a pure sheet read he doesn\'t exactly lay over the field numbers wise either, although he does get 4lbs from the older ones. The filly gets 7lbs and first time lasix but would still have to improve, save more ground/avoid more trouble, or hope GH runs an off race to beat him because shes not getting anymore weight off than she got in the Arc.
I still say he is going to be tough to beat if he runs his race.
GH wants to be outside of horses. Soft is not his preference although he can handle it unlike a horse like Twilight Eclipse who cannot. Will tip my hat to him if he beats me.
As you said, 4 races in 10 weeks and numbers not exactly towering over these. Not sure Found wants 1 1/2. Ditto Slumber who prefers firm. The Pizza Man will like the off going but a 1 1/2 may be a few steps beyond his scope as well.
Big John B, Da Big Hoss, Cage Fighter, Shining Copper, Ordok Dan---all too slow for this.
Leaves BBK and RR. When in doubt, I\'ll take JJ.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
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> The Pizza Man will like the off going but a 1 1/2
> may be a few steps beyond his scope as well.
Joe,
Distance isn\'t a problem for The Pizza Man -- he has 2
wins and 2 thirds from 6 starts at 12 panels, against
graded company.
At first glance Pizza might seem a little light on class
but his biggest issue is always the trip: he\'s a big
fella, and if he loses momentum because of traffic it
takes him forever to get moving again.
If he gets a perfect trip he just might whistle at a
nice price.
Good Luck,
Rick B.
Two other points in his favor - he\'s run well at Kee and won\'t mind give in the ground.
Rick B:
Pizza Man\'s a tough horse, no doubt.
Not sure he lights up the board if he wins this. He\'s a popular horse ---I\'m thinking 8 to 10-1 more likely than 18-20.
Good Luck,
joe B.
Runhappy, slow and is taking a ton $$ - currently 9/5. Rolling with 10, 3, 6, 14 , 13 in the verticals.
Tip my cap to a monster performance!
well you got your wish