Here we go:
1. Smarty Jones negative 1-3/4
2. Lion Heart 0
3. Imperialism 1-1/2
4. Limehouse 3-1/4
5. The Cliff\'s Edge 3-1/4
6. Action This day 5-1/2
7. Read The Footnotes 5-3/4
8. Birdstone 5-1/2
9. Tapit 4-3/4
10. Borrego 5-1/2
11. Song Of The Sword 7-3/4
12. Master David 6-1/2
13. Pro Prado 6-3/4
14. Castledale (ire) 9-1/4
15. Friends Lake 16-1/4
16. Minister Eric 17-1/2
17. Pollard\'s Vision 17
18 Quintons Gold Rush did not finish
It feels like its per form to me...Imperialism coming in with a 1.5 with trouble feels right. So does Lion\'s slight regression. I wouldn\'t have posted it though...lol
CtC
TGAB---
How do you factor in the shoe(s) loss for TCE?? Or do you??
My buddy and I are having a discussion regarding TCE for the Preakness. He says that TCE will bounce back to the performance level of the Blue Grass and be a major factor. I\'m thinking that the Derby effort, which includes the best final 1/4 fraction in the race, may set him back even more.
Thoughts??
Good Luck,
Joe B.
1 T-Point per shoe :)
The shoe problems are not factored into the figure. As for his chances in the Preakness, what does the pattern suggest?
To me TCE\'s pattern suggests this:
1- The big neg 1 effort in the Blue Grass was too much for The Cliff\'s Edge to duplicate again-which is what was needed to win-running back in 3 weeks.
2- The Preakness will be TCE\'s 4th race in 8 weeks and just 5 weeks from the big neg 1 top.
3- I can\'t consider the 3 1/4 TCE ran in the Derby a non-effort or the kind of effort that would move him forward enough to be competitive with just 2 weeks to recover.
4- I don\'t see anything in Zito\'s TG figure based stats that indicates a pair-up of a top or a new top can be expected.
5-Aside from the pattern many may either excuse the Derby performance due to the shoes and the track condition or believe the Derby was a better performance than it really was which may lead to TCE being an underlay in the Preakness.
But waht do I know I settled on Friend\'s Lake and Pro Prado.
CtC wrote about TCE shoe loss calculation.
\"1 T-Point per shoe\"
That being the case when you add those back in, he is an 0-2-X in the Preakness.
Therefore I am throwing him out on all tickets.
LOL
Excuse the derby performance. Too many horses running into and on top of one another for it to be a truly formful race. And slop to boot! A total toss as far as any pattern read goes. The Preakness is always run truer to form.
TCE returns to within 1 pt. of his BG win.
The issue I\'m more concerned with right now than TCE\'s ability is the \"negative number string\"...I got beat on Albert the Great if I\'m not mistaken stringing negative numbers. Now Smarty has 3 negative T-figs:
-3.3, -1.3 and -1.3 in that order. Essentially, hes just paired up. T-Graph has the race a bit faster than Beyer is my hunch, but I think Beyer came in a little lite if he really thinks Lion ran a 110 in the Bluegrass. That would make Lions third of the year on a very nice looking race about a 102 Beyer is my guess. I think it was better than that. My question is how valid is the negative string toss theory with a horse that was wrapped up on a negative 4? Can he run a fourth negative? Thats a rhetorical question because I know we are in uncharted waters.
All kidding aside it looks like the Derby Numbers are good. I don\'t do figures so take that for what its worth.
I don\'t think the condition of the track can be underestimated in the performances of most of the horses. The BEST HORSE WON and the SECOND BEST HORSE RAN SECOND. The winner and the 3rd and 4th place finishers had a little seasoning under them so they were better able to handle the elements while the runner-up only needed to do what he does best. Go to the lead and try and hang on.
I played the 0-2-X angle and lost, if you played the Two Good Ones and a Bad One then the RACE OF HIS LIFE ANGLE with Jerry on Thunder Gulch you are up about 4000%. Next race, next pattern read, that is how the game is played. NO ONE WINS THEM ALL.
I hope Smarty wins the Preakness the SI coverage along with other press is good for the game. It would be disappointing if he lost. However, there would be a groundswell of interest if he won and moved on to the Belmont gunning for the Triple Crown. Add that going into the summer with the Seabiscuit movie from last summer and maybe some other people would realize what we already know--Horse Racing is a lot of fun mixed with a lot of good people.
Having said that as someone pointed the three straight negative numbers and tight spacing do not bode well for Smarty. I have seen older horses that were better than Smarty IS NOW be toast by the time Breeders Cup rolls around from the stress of their work. Skip Away and Lemon Drop Kid to name a couple, Mineshaft didn\'t even make it to Breeders Cup Day.
The question Derby Day was, \"Who is the best horse???\"
The question Preakness Day is, \"Will the Best Horse Win???\"
Silver Charm wrote:
> All kidding aside it looks like the Derby Numbers are good. I
> don\'t do figures so take that for what its worth.
Silver I don\'t do them now and I never did them like Jerry, but I think I can project his means here. Or at least I\'ll try...lol
The consistent horse recently was Limehouse. He ran a couple of very consistent figures in the Tampa Derby and Bluegrass. I think the Kentucky Derby was an even better race. It appeared Santos gave him a wonderful ride because it does appear hes just a little shy of the top echelon. So Jerry paired him up at 10 marks which is essentially running better...especially on that track and I agree completely with that assessment.
The other horse thats run well every time is Imperialism and he looked to improve some with a better path. I don\'t think he liked going up tight along the rail in the Santa Anita Derby and I\'m still not sure the interference didn\'t cost him a position. He\'s a strider that can\'t be interrupted. Anyway, I\'m sure the barn realized that so they sent him wide and he came a runnin. If you look at my split post. You\'ll see a very odd mile split for him. Thats where he got in trouble is my guess. He figured to improve off the S.A. Derby and I think the 1.5 considering his trouble is about right on. Lion has also been consistent of late and the Derby was very much like his Bluegrass and only that last eighth weakened him some. If it were a 9 mark race, I think Smarty might have been in trouble.
So you have that Triad base of Imperialism, Limehouse and Lion...and from there the performance variables are applied and the numbers are factored and they are what they are. They feel very accurate to me on a tough race to figure properly. Jerry also can rely some upon the modern trend of many horses not firing their best Derby Day. Add it all up and remember he\'s considering the other races too. I haven\'t done that, so I\'ll certainly defer to him....lol Kinda like the Patient does to the Doctor.
Post Edited (05-07-04 13:14)
Imperialism got \"bottled\" up on the far turn and into the stretch, according to his jockey, Kent Desormeaux. When he got out (and what was he doing inside to begin with?), he unleashed his \"patented\" late run. However, I still think of him as a late running sprinter who can get up to 1 1/16. Had he not been bottled up and forced to delay his run, I think he would have tired out by the 1/8th pole.
So, obviously, he is going to be my \"bet against\" in the Preakness.
I am, however, interested in seeing the numbers on the local Pimlico horse who has yet to lose there.
See ROTW archives for 4/17 (Tesio stakes) for Water Cannon information.
It looks like Rag. and TG had the race pretty close -- which is amazing considering all of the things that happened to the track on Saturday. I pity the person who had to make the variants for that day.
Of course, for Jerry, it was not problem, since he already knew what every horse was going to run :)
As negative as I am on horses who run 1s and below (Rag. scale) this early in their lives, SJ is going to be a very tough beat in the Preakness. Moving forward off of the AK Derby almost back to his old top makes it very hard for me to play him to \'X\' in the Preakness. Now, on TG, he looks a bit like Peace Rules, so a bit more negative. Still, he is so much faster than just about every other possible horse in the Preakness. I am not seeing a ton of value there.
The bet-against may be Lion Heart, as he strikes me as somewhat ouchy based on his pattern and he is on an 0-2-X pattern (again, on Rag.).
LH reminds me EXACTLY of peace rules (running style wise). although i know peace rules has a bounce coming every once and a while, i can never handicap it correctly, and rarely hit the races he is involved in. i am just going to toss LH every time he runs longer than 9f and cross my fingers.
Post Edited (05-06-04 16:58)