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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Silver Charm on October 18, 2015, 10:24:15 AM

Title: Cup Weather
Post by: Silver Charm on October 18, 2015, 10:24:15 AM
I know its Super Early and at the risk of being reprimanded by FrankD and JoeB there is a decent looking Forecast Trend (http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/lexington-fayette/ext) working for Lexington. At the very least the projections are its going to be very dry for the next two weeks. And that makes a big difference for the Euros who may come over here strong with the Lexington Climate and Breeding connections with many of their farms nearby.....
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: Fairmount1 on October 19, 2015, 07:27:50 AM
I guess we shouldn\'t click on the forecast trend now that it shows rain symbols on the 30th and 31st??  Start reprimanding!
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: jbelfior on October 19, 2015, 08:22:26 AM
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I know its Super Early and at the risk of being
> reprimanded by FrankD and JoeB there is a decent
> looking Forecast Trend working for Lexington. At
> the very least the projections are its going to be
> very dry for the next two weeks. And that makes a
> big difference for the Euros who may come over
> here strong with the Lexington Climate and
> Breeding connections with many of their farms
> nearby.....


You\'re correct in that the overall pattern for the next 7 days there points to dry and warm.

However, Accuweather long range has a substantial rain event for the Tenn/Ohio Valley areas for the 26th and 27th (the timing could be off a day or so this far out). Right now it looks as if that system will be out of there in time for the BC but it will not be as warm for BC weekend.

Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: trackjohn on October 19, 2015, 08:44:06 AM
Joe B.:

 Agree 100%...WAY to early...BUT...the major computer models (Euro, GFS, Canadian, etc..) all agree with some nasty weather (significant rain/wind) for next Sun/Mon..might affect some training/last workouts...chance for \'unsettled weather 10/29-10/30...IMO, It won\'t be until this weekend where one could have ANY confidence in the forecast for 10/30 &10/31

John
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: jbelfior on October 23, 2015, 01:42:37 PM
Whatever the remants of Patricia bring to the Midwest should be gone by Wednesday.
 
Weatherbell Analytics maps is looking dry and in the mid-50\'s Friday and Saturday.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: Edgorman on October 23, 2015, 03:43:05 PM
If Trump\'s wall was in place, we wouldn\'t have to worry.
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: FrankD. on October 26, 2015, 03:34:51 AM
Quite a few remnants to get through; looks like steady rain showers from late Monday night straight through late Wednesday afternoon. Total rain fall amount looks to be a little bit either way of an inch.

Main track will be fast both days, a firm turf even for Friday would not surprise me. It may have a little give in it but sunny, a lil breeze from Thursday on should make for perfect conditions.

Onto the draw!!!

Good luck,

Frank D.
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: miff on October 26, 2015, 06:11:19 AM
Frank,

Just an fyi, in case you were not following the Kee meet so far. The turf course is a mess. The rails have been out to protect the inside paths. Raw times on grass,listed as firm,were on average -170 or 10 lengths slower than firm.

With more rain and little real sun to tighten the grass course up, expect grass races to be slowish on the clock even if listed firm. Would think big edge to euros as the course should feel like it does overseas.

Good luck,
Mike
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: phil23 on October 26, 2015, 11:35:38 AM
Great point on the turf course Mike. It really does seem like it is in very rough shape. Noticed a horse like Tourist today, even he looked to be being asked and used a fair bit in his work and even then, a slow time. Not a comment on his chances at all, just that the course looks very chewed up over the part they\'ve been running on.

Wondering, if in addition to the obvious geometric benefit (sweet draw for a certain ROTW fave of this board in that race), just the fact of running over the un-used insider portions won\'t be extremely helpful as well.
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: phil23 on October 26, 2015, 11:44:32 AM
Meant to attach this into the above post, re turf course condition.

Comments from track super:

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/golden-horn-quick-ground-unlikely-for-horn-in-turf-swansong/1978640/top/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: miff on October 26, 2015, 11:51:41 AM
Phil,

Surprisingly candid, track supers/venues loath posting anything but fast/firm.Seen many layover types swallowed up by slow boggy-ish turf courses. Gonna be a factor imo

Good Luck
Mike
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: miff on October 28, 2015, 05:28:56 AM
Pouring....again! Grass races may be tougher to handicap than originally thought.
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: Agastache on October 28, 2015, 07:09:55 AM
FYI, it rained here in central Kentucky all night long. I know the Kee turf course drains well, but I\'ve seen TGJB give out dead rail designations on the grass course before. I\'d say its something to keep an eye on going forward to at least Friday. As of right now, it\'s still drizzling.
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: NoCarolinaTony on October 28, 2015, 07:31:44 AM
Mike,

I\'m here at track watched a few horses work on the surface ...

Quite frankly the runners are throwing out huge clods of turf on the turns fwiw ... Seems pretty deep right now.

NCTony
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: miff on October 28, 2015, 07:53:45 AM
Hi Tony,

Thanks, how are you? Players can\'t even get a break with the surfaces.The dirt also played weird for a few days after the rain in the early part of this meet.

Re turf, saw rocket ship type turf runners reduced to raw time mortals before this rain.

Good Luck

Mike
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: Wrongly on October 28, 2015, 08:55:19 AM
Stopped raining about 10am and the Sun just came out here in Louisville.  Lexington should be clearing up soon.  Turf might be different from Friday to Saturday.
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: NoCarolinaTony on October 28, 2015, 12:29:49 PM
Mike..

We finally moved back home after the fire in August.. We are doing ok.
Am in the BCBC again this year. Been raining off and on all morning into early afternoon. Claiming one more band to come through then it will clear.

I was here opening rainy weekend if this meet and you are right about the turf course. I met with Irish Jock Jim Crowley who was on Fav in Shadwell mile. He told me they wouldn\'t come back for BC, horse was Leary about running on the slick footing below surface.

Anyway , I\'m back and will try to be more frequent on the board again...

And for my Metropolitan brethren, let\'s hope last night was just a bump in road.

Let\'s Go Mets!!

NCTony
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: johnnym on October 28, 2015, 01:20:56 PM
According to weather.com 60% of rain sat
Good luck
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: Holybull1 on October 28, 2015, 04:31:27 PM
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike..
>
> We finally moved back home after the fire in
> August.. We are doing ok.
> Am in the BCBC again this year. Been raining off
> and on all morning into early afternoon. Claiming
> one more band to come through then it will clear.
>
>
> I was here opening rainy weekend if this meet and
> you are right about the turf course. I met with
> Irish Jock Jim Crowley who was on Fav in Shadwell
> mile. He told me they wouldn\'t come back for BC,
> horse was Leary about running on the slick footing
> below surface.
>
> Anyway , I\'m back and will try to be more frequent
> on the board again...
>
> And for my Metropolitan brethren, let\'s hope last
> night was just a bump in road.
>
> Let\'s Go Mets!!
>
> NCTony

Nice shout-outs on the Byk show this morning!
Title: Re: Cup Weather
Post by: SoCalMan2 on October 29, 2015, 05:17:27 AM
johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> According to weather.com 60% of rain sat
> Good luck


as of 8:15 this morning, weather.com has 20% chance of rain on Saturday.