Interesting that Castellano was at Keeneland to work him on Monday morning. I\'m not aware that he rode at Keeneland on Sunday (perhaps he did) but that is long trip. It was mentioned the horse may run in either the Mile or Classic. Him getting a Mile and a Quarter with some quality early pressure is not such a sure thing. He seemed to flop out of his right lead in that work for no reason.
JJ rode two horses on Sunday at Keeneland I believe including Mei Ling for Pletcher in the Spinster. The other mount I think was a jockey change from Bridgmohan for Casse that ran 2nd. EDIT: Also rode Unbridled Daddy in the Bourbon for Pletcher.
Heard two mentions that Pletcher is leaning toward the Classic; I think one was on twitter by a reliable reporter and the other was possibly on Byk but not 100 percent certain on that.
Love the horse as that Whitney was unreal and his follow up win in Woodward wasn\'t bad either. Not sure if I can play Pletcher in BC Classic though.
Ran huge in the Whitney, but how anyone expects another furlong out of that horse is beyond me. An autotoss in the classic, especially with Beholder in there. Maybe for the bottom of exotics.
AJ,
Auto toss with Beholder in the race? Hmm... I fail to see the connection. Similar to saying auto toss because the race is on a Saturday.
Beholder will be WELL off any pace set by Liam\'s map and will also be behind AP early.
The 1 1/4 for Liam\'s map a good question, as is whether Pletcher can get a horse to run in the BC.
Saying a horse coming off likely the two best efforts of any horse coming into the classic, who will also not be any higher than 4th choice, an auto toss is silly.
Like him or not, he merits SERIOUS consideration for any handicapper.
Rob
Just hope he runs and adds pace to AP so you can toss them both. Winner most likely comes from the 2nd flight.
What to do with TAP? Something like 7 for 103 in BC races going in to last years
races, but traditionally very strong at Kee. Yeah, I know, the testing.
Ten poles too far for Liam in my opinion, but Liam would be severely compromised
in the Las Vegas (Dirt) Mile if Private Zone shows up there.
Pedigree isn\'t everything but Miss Macy Sue/Trippi on the bottom is a concern at ten furlongs against this potential field.
Could be wrong but I think he needs a 2012(Fort Larned)Santa Anita like surface to help him along or a softer field to last the trip.
Liam\'s Map still wins the Woodward if they run another furlong but it\'s a little different when you have AP then Beholder making first runs at you as opposed to Bay of Plenty then Coach Inge taking their shots.
He has to give 4 lbs to the three year olds and 3 lbs to Beholder right?
Big,
Good points but Liam already outran his distance breeding more than once.Pretty good last eighth in his last race at 9f is the reason TAP considering the Classic.Liam one of the only contenders without much methodology help to earn his lofty negative figs, defines racetrack fast.Distance and probable race dynamics on paper not great for Liam as suggested by another poster.
All of these horses in the Classic will be facing the fastest, most accomplished bunch they ever have. No horse in here \"outclasses\" the field, top contenders pretty much have solid credentials and figs.
Mike
Hey, Richie. Claire Novak of BH reported that connections are leaning towards Sprint with Private Zone. If so, that figures to be some battle on the front end.
ajkreider Wrote:
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> Ran huge in the Whitney, but how anyone expects
> another furlong out of that horse is beyond me.
> An autotoss in the classic, especially with
> Beholder in there. Maybe for the bottom of
> exotics.
Beholder will not be within 5 lenghts of Liam\'s Map. No one crazy enough to attempt to run early with LM in a race of this magnitude. He\'s a 4yo Firing Line. IMO stands a better shot to run his number in the Classic where he will not have any company on the front end. Toss at your own risk.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Would think American Pharoah will be flanking Liam throughout, how fast they go will likely have much to do with the outcome of the Classic
Magic:
I keep forgetting that BC Dirt Mile is two turner and wouldn\'t expect to see PZ
there.
I will repeat an earlier grumble ...when this race is to be run at a venue which
does not have a one turn mile course, run the race at 1-1/16th miles.
For those that have Liam\'s sheet, leaving all other considerations aside, what type of number would you expect him to run based on pattern and spacing. New top, top, off, or bounce?
I wish the BC would use each venues unique track circumstances to showcase the facility.
One turn mile at BEL / CD
About a mile and three quarter down the hill for the BC Turf @ SA.
4.5 furlong under card race at Kee.
etc.
Liam\'s Map heading for the BC mile per TAP.
Baffert has to love this decision.
To me, this has a HUGE impact on the race. Look at top 10 Contenders. Almost zero confirmed early speed.
AP has a big tactical advantage now. Beholder will sit off the triple crown winner. Horses like Tonalist and honor code up against it.
Obviously a lot of time left, but from what the pace scenario looks like, u could see a Ghostzapper / roses in May type scenario with AP and Beholder.
As if I couldn\'t hate Pletcher enough, he had to take the starch out of the biggest race of the year, to run in the BC Mile. Ugh.
Rob
Agree, but Baffert has his first chance to train AP, and to be objective, not sure how good he is. Toyed with sophs without ever working in company!
As for Pletcher, neutral, he runs a factory; and he\'s good at it. bbb
Ringato,
Plenty of starch remaining, moreover we haven\'t an idea how the track will play.maybe someone will alter their mounts\' running style ala Frosty the Frosted Frostman.
Flighted Iron
BBB,
You are right, TAP runs a factory and makes lots of money. A success by any measure.
All I will say is that no trainer shits the bed on big racing days like he does. Not now and nobody in my 30 years of watching this sport closely. And nobody has run more talented 3 year olds out of form than him either. All the money spent and the quality flesh and fast 3 year old preps, for him to have his derby record be as horrible as his has been, is a black mark.
It is a tough game. So winning is hard. But on how many big days do his horses not even show up? Run last in race after race? This years belmont stakes day and breeders cup preview day are just a couple examples.
Gimme Baffert over him every day and twice on Sunday\'s.
Rob
I would be surprised if Frosted altered his running style for the Classic. It didn\'t work out to well the last time he tried to run with AP early.
Mentioned Frosty as an example only.Doubting it will happen again unless there\'s an obvious recognizable speed bias.If there is in fact a front end bias and he\'s drawn inside of AP i would send the Frostman.
With all that said can you be counted on to go in against LM in the mile?
The job of keeping AP honest on the front end now rests with Beholder, doubtful pace will be on the fast side.
The fact that TAP is choosing to run LM for $1MM at 8F instead of $5MM at 10F off recent works is going to factor in to my thought process. Question was asked yesterday, new top, pair, off, X? I think off. Very interesting at 10-1 in the Classic, will try to beat him at 4/5 in dirt mile.
An earlier post praised TAP as a businessman, nothing wrong with winners share of a million bucks.
Most successful businessmen are realist; could he get 10F without a lil help?
Out of competition testing with KY jurisdiction calling the shots would make it very difficult for that help, be it, stacking of legal drugs and or supplements etc...
All PED\'s and or supplements in horse racing, cycling, track and field have 2 main objectives, slow down or decrease build up of lactic acid and get more air into the lungs. Hence the term \"the second breakout\" coined by NY punters back in the Oscar Barrera days. Ever noticed all the so called justly or not \"juice\" trainers for the past 30 years go to the front sometimes in insane fractions and not only do not tire they pull away \"second breakout\" in the stretch.
Will be calling Rezlegal if TAP files suit for libel!
Frank D.
miff Wrote:
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> Liam\'s Map heading for the BC mile per TAP.
ouch.
LM picking up 8 or 9 lbs, Keen Ice losing 4. how many people know that KI is faster than LM at the BC weights? I\'d say 90% of the money does not. and KI already has the big one going a mile and a quarter, while LM is untested at 10f.
now LM\'s in the Mile, and, at very low odds, you can\'t bet on him or against him.
further, Honor Code will now get Javier. I\'m not a big fan of HC going 10f, but with JJ up he\'s another that\'s tough to bet on or against.
and KI gets the guy currently on suspension for riding drunk. wow.
two great looking races a day ago, now one is useless and the other compromised.
Michael,
AGree with everything you say and the conclusion.
to me this makes both races EXTREMELY less interesting.
Sure, based on sheets and number power, the Classic is still going to look interesting to people, particularly TG users. But anybody that factors race dynamics into their handicapping can\'t like Tonalist, Keen Ice or Honor Code. Miff exactly right that Beholder the one to keep AP honest and Beholder doesn\'t run that way anymore. This isn\'t the same mare who set incredibly fast fractions going 6 furlongs a few years ago. She rates comfortably now. And you can bet ANYTHING you want that going 1 1 1/4 against the colts there is ZERO chance she engages AP early in the race. Sit a length or so off and hope you are better late. I would do that with her I am as I can be that they will too.
Makes for a non-contested to slow pace, with a bunch of \"fast\" horses at decent odds all pace/trip compromised.
And a favorite, who on the merits, will be overbet based on being a huge public horse and a Triple Crown winner, nonetheless having a huge pace advantage, thus making the fact that he is an underlay irrelevant.
Ugly ugly ugly.
Rob
Understand, but 55% win share of $1,000,000 is essentially = to 10% show share of $5,000,000 with no upside. The place share of the Mile is essentially = to 5th in the Classic. Raises enough questions for me to make the Mile betable.
Mon,
Considerations about Liam\'s possible stallion value probably played a part in the decision. Liam looks 60% probable in the mile vs maybe like 15-20% in the Classic,TAP knows that. Breeders also love fast/well bred milers at stud, not only classic distance types, a win in the BC mile is not as significant as the Classic,but it\'s meaningful $$$,well beyond the purse.
If Liam goes off or trains poorly, he\'s not running in any race.Lays over on all speed/pf figs and may be shortest priced horse on the card.If one is tossing Liam, it\'s probably a bounce scenario.
Good luck
Mike
The weight angle has been overlooked a lot. Tonalist and HC spotted LM a ton of weight in the Whitney (more than a point\'s worth). And LM was somehow light in the Woodward too.
Makes more sense. Thanks.
Is Private Zone definite to Sprint? Liam\'s Map would be severely compromised if PZ ran Dirt Mile.
You guys are awful quick to make the assumption that all these horses will run their races. Historically, many have not. And there are some trainers in particular who have had a lot of horses tank at the BC, some at short prices.
Starting work on the seminar this weekend.
Private Zone heading for the sprint
Shorter than songbird?
Tough call.Songbird at least has a few fillies that may take money, Rachel\'s Valentin\'s, Tap To It, Pretty And Cool. Every talking head fawning over Songbird who looks like any kind. One of fastest 2 yr old of any sex on several figs, except Greenpoint Crusader(colt)on one service.
Arc winner will be short if he comes also.
Michael
Irad Ortiz on Keen ice if Honor Code goes in the Classic w/Javier.
big18741 Wrote:
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> Michael
>
> Irad Ortiz on Keen ice if Honor Code goes in the
> Classic w/Javier.
given the jocks left, that\'s the best they could have hoped for. never like Javier off though.