He rode Liams Map in his last and has been the regular rider of Honor Code this year. I believe he stays with Honor Code even though he is a much tougher ride.
It doesn\'t look like Liams Map is going to run again since Labor Day and AP is doing the same. I felt like a few weeks ago this was going to be tricky read for the Cup because people are taking some unorthodox routes to get there. Even Beholder after her last (without having seen a figure) does anyone actually believe she is sitting on an O-2-X? She never had to take a deep breath.
Full fields on Saturday at Keeneland. Might be rainy in NY. More variables to consider for horses that are prepping.....
I though the rule on the 0-2-x was the it had to be within a 42 day span? Her Pacific Classic-Zenyatta-BC Classic will be well over that, correct?
I don\'t know about that nor am I proposing she be looked at as an 0-2-X because my point was she barely ran all out in the last. The last Figure will only have a certain amount of relevance in her current form cycle.
Also how about Honor Code? He is prepping going a Mile not a Mile and a Qtr. To me with the way this horse is with a mind of his own I think its good thing. It is certainly better than going a Mile and Half like Easy Goer did back in the day in his Classic Prep!!
That 6 weeks thing sounds like it came from a Ragozin tape, and if so welcome. But we\'re not big on rules here.
0-2-X is a definition, whether the individual one is good or bad can depend on a lot of things, timing between ALL the races among them. Along with age, how big the top is, how bad the X is, etc.
0-2-X has been debated, misunderstand and very loosely interpreted since I\'ve been around here. Below is from the introductory section guide to thorn-pattern and it jives with my conversations with Julian who is credited with discovering the 0-2-X pattern.
Guide to the Thoro-Pattern
Thoro-Pattern studies are broken out by age and time and using horses that have run at least six times – the three starts of the pattern (0-2-X etc.), plus at least three starts before that, in order to establish an effective previous top to compare to. Each of the last four – the three of the pattern, plus the one being measured – had to be within 42 days of the previous start, and all for the same trainer. The three runs in the pattern and the one being measured all had to be on the same surface (either dirt of turf), and either all sprints (less than a mile) or routes (a mile or more).
The numbers are compared to the "effective top" of the horse, which for the purposes of these studies was defined as the best figure the horse had run in the last 6 starts before the three race pattern began. If the horse runs better than that within the three race pattern, that figure becomes his effective top. Dirt patterns compared the race being studied to the horse's dirt top, turf patterns to his grass top.
We do not make distinctions when we output the sheets. In other words, if a horse is coming off an 0-2-X, with the races six months apart, some grass and some dirt, we are printing the 0-2-X stats, even though they don't really apply. We are doing this so you have something to work with, but it means you have to make distinctions. You can't always take the results at face value for every horse – you have to handicap. Was there a significant trainer change that affected the pattern, or affects your opinion about what the horse will run today? An off race on a surface the horse doesn't like last time out? Is the horse heavily raced, making improvement less likely than on average for the pattern?
The patterns shown are the ones for the surface today's race is carded for, regardless of what surface the horse has been running on, and the effective top used will be the horse's best number, regardless of surface or distance. The same categories apply as for the figure-based trainer studies – "top" means more than one point better than his previous effective top, "pair" means within a point either way of that effort, "off" means more than one point through four points worse than the effective top, and "X" means worse than that.
The 42 days is in reference to what it takes to be used in the Thoro-Pattern stats only.
I\'m glad you posted that, Frank. Everyone who uses the TP should read that disclaimer, and understand that there are a lot more exceptions than rules here.
Frank,
The strike rate for the 0 2 or 0 2 X was very weak in an UNFILTERED study of those sheet/theories/patterns done some 6 years ago.Couldn\'t agree more with JB about the many variables/moving parts in determining what is a legit pattern or otherwise.Overall, the study looked to show nothing more than random occurrences rather than any reliable pattern.
AP and Beholder look to be sitting X\'s in the BC if you read the O 2 pattern.Think they will both lose but for different reasons.
Mike
Mike,
Not a high % pattern by any stretch of the imagination but when tightened up with some common sense the price is usually right and makes for a nice horizontal sequence;much like the 1st time gelding angle.
It\'s a good pattern for established claimers and allowance types catching them going up and down I\'ll seldom apply it to stakes horses and almost never to developing 3 yr old stakes horses.
I\'m not a raggie. Been trying to soak up as much from the ThoroGraph-ers from the start. My apologies for my assumption of the 42 day rule.
Frank,
It\'s so hard to win/beat the game over the long haul. As you infer, if the stars align one day and you use that pattern, it could lead to a big score.
Players need as many good angles/nuggets as possible to have a fighting chance.
Mike
No problem. And no problem with Raggies who see the light, either.
After Frank\'s post I can see where you got the 42 days from.