Another impressive win this past weekend for Beholder. Dick Mandella has been a BC powerhouse. Any chance this mare can win the BC Classic? I have not seen her Sheet numbers but assume she gets a little pull in the weights.
I believe Beholder will get 3 from the 4yo & older colts (who carry 126) and will give 2 to the 3yo colts.
Ace,
Why wouldn\'t she have a chance? She is fast enough to win on anybody\'s speed figures, including her TG #\'s. Even without the pull in weight (which she won\'t get from AP, she will give him 2 lbs).
If the race were in California I would make her the favorite. She hasn\'t shown she can ship and run as well, which she has to do. If you watched any of the second tier preps for the BC Classic this weekend in SAnta Anita and Kentucky, you certainly can\'t make ANY of those horses contenders. Top 3 choices will likely be AP, Honor Code and Beholder, likely in that order.
Sure as hell makes the race even more interesting than it already would be if the mare runs.
Rob
I don\'t have her pp in front of me, but didn\'t she win the BC Distaff at Churchill when Royal Delta left her race on the training track? Point being she has shipped and won, to KY, for the BC.
In her only two starts outside of California Beholder ran second in the 2013 Ky Oaks and fourth in the 2014 Ogden Phipps at Belmont.
Beholder has a race two back vs males that would make her tough,most of her other races would not,those vs mares.As to her big win two back, it\'s the only reason to consider her,imo.Prefer her racing in Cali.
A nasty bunch awaits her and a key will be if TAP decides to enter Liam\'s Map(50-50 chance)to ensure an honest pace.Couple of Classic contenders go this weekend in their final preps.Should Honor Code and Tonalist run big, the Classic will come up the best in a long while with several sporting multiple neg TG/high speed figures for players to consider.
Interesting to see if the AP hype has subsided or persists and carries him to the role of favorite,not certain it will.
So i\'m remembering that wrong? I remember there was a pretty strong speed bias that day at that track, whichever one it was.
mjellish Wrote:
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> I don\'t have her pp in front of me, but didn\'t she
> win the BC Distaff at Churchill when Royal Delta
> left her race on the training track? Point being
> she has shipped and won, to KY, for the BC.
Yeah, RD was \'way over the top. You could detect it, beforehand . . . certainly, in the post parade for the race in question.
Smart move by Shugs to prep Honor Code in a 1 turn mile instead of the 1 1/4 JCGC.
Regarding the Classic: We\'ll be posting for weeks on this one.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Smart? Please explain.
Honor Code\'s distance capability not yet answered. Thought he was fortunate to beat Liam\'s Map in the 9f Whitney,his kick wasn\'t as strong as his mile races, 10f Classic?
And what questions will be answered after running a mile?
Mike,
If he runs, AP is gonna be the favorite. Would bet my last dollar on that.
As for whether he will win, much tougher question. If Liam\'s Map runs, AP is a toss for me. If Liam\'s Map doesn\'t run, AP gonna be tough to beat.
Not an Honor Code guy at all. Think he got beautiful ride on closer\'s track to cost me a huge score when he beat Liam\'s Map. (yep - still bitter). Agree with your comment, re:distance.
Rob
\"If he runs, AP is gonna be the favorite. Would bet my last dollar on that\"
Rob,
I\'m only 95% on AP being favorite.Figure wise, he has no edge at all over this group,faces the fastest group of his career.Would pay close attention to press coverage of how he is training up. Only say that on the basis of his somewhat tarnished halo from Travers loss.
Mike
She was coming into the Kentucky Oaks off a decent layoff and ran a great race nearly winning. When she ran in the Phipps Im not sure she was 100% right, but they had committed to it, it was Belmont Triple Crown Day and she was the reigning defending champion. So they ran anyway. She went on a pretty long break again after that and passed on the Breeders Cup Distaff won by Untappable.
Mandella is better than pretty good and for him to now begin firing shots like this has to make one think he knows something now about his mare that he wasn\'t seeing before.
The mile is a better conditioner for him.
So he ran down arguably one of the top 3 dirt horses in training (who was on a clear unpressured lead) but we dont know if he\'ll get a 1 1/4??
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Beholder had plenty of pre-race antics prior to the Oaks that year including unseating her jockey, would imagine she\'s much more settled as a 5 year old.
Mike
Doesn\'t matter much right now, but if the betting pools were comprised of the top 10% of the shrewdest gamblers (if such a thing exists), I would agree AP might not be favored.
But he will be.
Agree with your points on how he trains and looks. Although I still the presence of Liam\'s Map, or lack thereof, is a huge factor for AP.
I know he has tracked and gone by but there is a big difference between tracking a \"target\" like some of the speeds he tracked, versus tracking Liam\'s map, a big time quality horse. Although that brings to question Pletcher getting a horse to run well on BC day. Liam\'s map kind of reminds me of quality road and Pletcher got that one to run about 900 feet in his BC Classic....
Rob
Ahem. Pletcher is not the only one who has had horses not run well on BC day. And this one is not on the West coast.
There will be some very fast horses going off at big prices in that race. Thinking Beholder might be second choice.
Rob,
Distance a question, but Liam\'s Map held in highest regard by TAP since spring, regularly demolishes very fast workmates.Has to train as well as before to earn Classic shot or he goes mile.
If he runs,a must use for me, pace notwithstanding.Liam represents fast/older/class speed, don\'t picture AP getting by him too easy if at all.Classic looks to be a great race on paper and even better if HC and Tonalist run big Sat. Also,undefeated on grass multiple Group 1 winner Gleneagles,by Galileo out of full sister to Giants Causeway would also add intrigue,not certain to come.
Mike
Saving ground on the lead has worked out pretty well recently in that race.
Mandella has quite a Breeders Cup resume of wins but most if not all of them have been out West. He had a 3-bagger one year for sure and has had several of his horses run some giant efforts of the Big Day. Outside of California the strike rate, not so hot.
One Trainer who has won just about everywhere in this Event: NY, Florida, California and Kentucky, is Shug. Bill Mott can probably be included in that same conversation too. This isn\'t specific to a High Win % since over the years with supportive owners they end up running more than a few horses. Bu they have proven they know how to navigate their way into the Winners Circle wherever that may be!
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> She was coming into the Kentucky Oaks off a decent
> layoff and ran a great race nearly winning. When
> she ran in the Phipps Im not sure she was 100%
> right, but they had committed to it, it was
> Belmont Triple Crown Day and she was the reigning
> defending champion. So they ran anyway. She went
> on a pretty long break again after that and passed
> on the Breeders Cup Distaff won by Untappable.
>
> Mandella is better than pretty good and for him to
> now begin firing shots like this has to make one
> think he knows something now about his mare that
> he wasn\'t seeing before.
She also dumped the rider in the post parade and seemed a bit worked up. She ran a great race that day.
From a site called gohorsebetting. They had 45 on the list; I culled it down and added Smooth Roller (winner AA on Saturday)
AP 8/5
Beholder 3/1
Honor Code 4/1
Keen Ice 8/1
Lea 10/1
Tonalist 10/1
Gleneagles 12/1
Liams Map 12/1
Frosted 14/1
Smooth Roller 20/1
Constitution 25/1
Wicked Strong 25/1
Coach Inge 50/1
Hard Aces 50/1 Won a \"win and you\'re in\"
Hoppertunity 50/1
That\'s 15, I think they have a 1 1/4 mile chute on the KEE main track but I don\'t image they have run many 1 1/4 mile races there. Does anyone know if they have a limit for number of starters with this configration?
Bob
Per Kee website, 9f stakes are limited to 14 starters, so you have to assume the same for 10f.
Keeneland is a 8.5 furlong track,the 10 furlong race will start at the 3/16 pole,close to the top of the stretch. They ran a 10 furlong race there last October 25,Blood Horse still has access to the video on their replay feature.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/race-results?startDate=10%2F25%2F2014&endDate=10%2F25%2F2014&trackLookupId=959&type=AllRacing&statesBred=&searchStateBredPlacers=false
Looks like they get a full 1/4 mile to the turn, in a field of 14 anyone with any tactical speed should be able to get half way decent position.
Bob
I think you are likely remembering the 2013 Distaff, at Santa Anita, in which (without taking any position on whether any of these had their best that day) she dominated PoS, Close Hatches, Royal Delta, and two others whose names escape me.
TGJB Wrote:
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> Ahem. Pletcher is not the only one who has had
> horses not run well on BC day. And this one is not
> on the West coast.
>
> There will be some very fast horses going off at
> big prices in that race. Thinking Beholder might
> be second choice.
Assuming all start, AP will go favored, HC will be second choice, and Beholder third. There\'s a sort of a cold tri for you ;-)
If Gleneagles starts, and goes 12/1 as mentioned above, I might win more than the owner if he crosses the line first.
Yup. I remembered that wrong.
I\'m hoping Keeneland isn\'t like Santa Anita two of the last three years.
I like the \"mediocre plodder/improving slug\" three year old who ran -3 last time.
Ten furlongs with pace on a fair race track should be good for him.
Like him or not,Liam\'s Map in the Classic makes for a better race.
Hoping Liam,AP,Beholder and the other fast ones all show up.
Big,
Even broken clocks are right twice a day, and you are past the statute of limitations on bragging about that race. You already did at least two \"I told you so\'s\".
Pretty surprising to see Keen Ice a shorter price in the futures than Tonalist, Gleneagles, Liams Map and Frosted.Think all of them will be shorter than KI on race day.
Donegal race manager said KI top 3 yr old in the country right now....BRILLIANT!!
Ring
My strike rate is a lot worse than a broken clock.
Strictly ball busting and by no means bragging.
Half of that was for Miff(improving slug)anyway.
Truth be told I\'m shocked he won the Travers as washed out as he was prerace.
Still,I think -3 with a trip could be good in the Classic and he might get a similar setup.
Big,
All good! Your strike rate sounds very much like my own. Tough game. As a multi-race bettor, you can go on LONG losing streaks.
I miss my sports gambling days when 3 losses in a row was relatively rare.
Improving 3 year olds always good to have. Have to say, I don\'t see it at all. Would be shocked if he hit the superfecta, but that could be a good sign for you.
Field looks tough if they all show up. Tonalist a bit off the radar as his last few were a bit disappointing, but I think he is a runner. Liam\'s Map surely a runner. I won\'t bet the Euro, but many sharp handicappers think he is a runner. AP and Beholder are the \"name horses\", along with Honor Code, who I think will be second choice if he wins this weekend. (otherwise Beholder).
Good luck,
Rob
big18741 Wrote:
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> Ring
>
> My strike rate is a lot worse than a broken
> clock.
> Strictly ball busting and by no means bragging.
> Half of that was for Miff(improving slug)anyway.
>
> Truth be told I\'m shocked he won the Travers as
> washed out as he was prerace.
>
> Still,I think -3 with a trip could be good in the
> Classic and he might get a similar setup.
big, I\'d take a strike rate 1/2 as good as yours. you\'ve been great here, and nailed the analysis on the development of KI.
btw, who\'s riding the horse in the BC? seems like all the top jocks are taken.
Many things to consider. Track profile is one of them---not sure how Keenland will play out at a 1 1/4.
While Keen Ice is certainly a rapidly improving 3 yo with the thoro figures to be a top BC Classic contender,it\'s unlikely that he would have made an impact at Santa Anita last year or the year before that or at GP the year before that.
Point is that I would prefer a Keen Ice at a venue like Saratoga or Churchill as opposed to SA or GP or perhaps even a Keenland.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Seems like they would go back to Desormeaux.
From what I have seen so far, I don\'t regard Honor Code as a horse who is going to run his best race at 1 1/4. If LM goes, that may help Honor Code\'s cause. But even still, I dunno.
Unless HC looks very impressive in the Kelso (no idea who\'s in there) he won\'t be second choice, either. Beholder is a story horse, a filly who beat colts by a pole with a big Beyer, a BC dual winner, and the last one looks sexy with the \"under wraps\" business. She will get slammed.
I agree Jerry. AP (assuming he goes) and Beholder will take a ton of money.
Perhaps there\'s another 3yo who is improving at the right time that may be overlooked that day. Some on this board think he\'s a \"fraud.\"
Good Luck,
Joe B
FWIW the British books have AP at about 2-1, Beholder at about 7/2, and you can still get 8-1 from most of them on Honor Code.
Joe B,
You have Fraud-sted improving? Kinda read him flatlined for some time.
Mike
jbelfior Wrote:
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> Many things to consider. Track profile is one of
> them---not sure how Keenland will play out at a 1
> 1/4.
>
> While Keen Ice is certainly a rapidly improving 3
> yo with the thoro figures to be a top BC Classic
> contender,it\'s unlikely that he would have made an
> impact at Santa Anita last year or the year before
> that or at GP the year before that.
>
> Point is that I would prefer a Keen Ice at a venue
> like Saratoga or Churchill as opposed to SA or GP
> or perhaps even a Keenland.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
The Santa Anita strip last year did not have that big of a speed bias. Sometimes, the best horse is the one that races near the front.
BC Saturday last year:
R4: Winner wired, place/show came from 5/7 at the 1/2 call.
R6: ITM horses 4/5/8 at the 1/2 call
R8: Texas Red and Carpe Diem came from far back to hit the ex
R10: Winner stalked and won, 2/3 horses came from 3-4 lengths off
R12: Classic ITM came from the front horses. You can make the case that those horses figured to hit the board too.
The year before, that was a speed bias. I thought last year the track was fair enough.
As reported earlier today, AP is just getting back to himself. He will be compromised and not 100% tight for the race. Although he won the derby at 80% to 90%? fitness that won\'t happen in the Classic:
Jay Privman , Santa Anita , 2015-10-03 - DRF Live Posted :
Baffert: American Pharoah going to stay at SA, not fly to Kentucky
Bob Baffert just told me that American Pharoah will not fly to Kentucky on Monday and will instead continue to train at Santa Anita for the time being.
Basically, he wants to leave well enough alone.
\"I\'ve finally got him the way I want. I don\'t want to put him on a plane,\" Baffert said. \"His coat\'s good. His weight\'s good. I\'ve just got to keep him happy.\"