If you don\'t like laying wood on the likely heavy favorite that Rock Fall will be, this is a nice betting race. I\'m siding with Stallwalkin\' Dude in that race. Two factors on why. I made a nice score with him at the spa and there is no reason to back off him with the likely inflated odds that could be there tomorrow. The other is he has been toting highweight in most of his starts this year and everyone has to be at equal scale of 124 here.
The Beldame, I like Curalina. Last weekend Chatterbox flattered the Saratoga fillies with the score in a grade one at Parx. Wedding Toast has to carry 123 after a June layoff, maybe she doesn\'t bring her A game here.
The Turf Classic, Red Rifle and Twilight Eclipse chased home the impressive looking winner Flintshire. Red Rifle is the one I\'m leaning towards. Twilight is 1/7 in the win spot on Belmont sod and his one victory was where others were spotting him weight, he was life and death to get up there too.
At Santa Anita in the Frontrunner, I\'m taking a shot that Swipe can turn the tables on Nyquist with added ground.
Hoppertunity is my pick in the Awesome Again. Bayern may get a comfortable pace, he got that in the San Diego and squandered that edge though.
Best of luck to everyone.
Do you know where you are? To
Curious, Did you ask the question because his handicapping lacked any reference to TG numbers or because it was the first post in forever that actually dealt with handicapping?
Clearly not the latter since there have been posts about handicapping. And you are encouraged to add to them. But doing a whole group of races in such a way as to make it clear your handicapping has nothing to do with TG belongs on a general board, not here.
That aside-- handicapping posts that involve TG to at least some degree are welcome (and invited) at all times. But I am frankly more interested in this board\'s function as location for the highest level discussion of issues involving the industry in general and horseplayers in particular, who don\'t have nearly the voice they should. The recent posts on the state of the industry have been outstanding-- I sent a link a few days ago to the head of the Jockey Club, and he distributed it around.
The Vosburgh looks a lot like a Breeder\'s Cup Sprint prep. The timing is right the cast looks capable. One or more of these can be expected to make the Kee field.
Using TG principle #1 Best TG# generally has best (highest) probability of winning. Therefore group 1 the win contenders - horses proven capable of earning TG -3 or better. Rock Fall the dreaded odds on favorite stepping up in irrelevant class. Weekend Hideaway ran a big Jan GP TG# and has been vanned off or scratched in four of his last five. This one is a true believer\'s special. Salutos Amigos hard to imagine the horse could get beaten so often earning those TG #\'s. Palace keep it simple/objective. One or more of this group to be prominent late
Using TG principle #2 pattern (pick your version) - horses that inherit the win when small #\'s fail. The vertical key group - Stallwalking Dude he appears an iron horse runs his zero plus/minus race in and race out usually 4w. Hmm this race c/b crowded out there. Brothersofthetime never better back following a small new top (is this the pooh-poohed condition move?
TG principal race dynamics -considerations limited to ground loss. Wildcat Red once considered fast now considered slow. A 15/1 m/l celebrity of sorts. He looks to be on or the pacesetter with non taxing fractions. Ground loss expected to be minimal. Competent trainer may have good reason for journeying north. I\'ll put him under the chalk for an exacta and third behind the fast four in a trifecta.
Mr. Tavasco. Always love your insightful posts. I can\'t afford to be a TG man but love the game. To me Rock Fall is our preeminent sprinter today(I don\'t know what\'s going on out west). Looked like they took him back off the the pace a notch in the Vanderbilt just to see how he would react and the field was dispatched accordingly. There is no value in verticals here unless he loses.
eljayar52:
glad to hear you regard my posts insightful, even happier those that don\'t stayed mum.
When the crowd foolishly bet Wildcat Red down to 10/1 with a $7 exacta I abandoned that bet. When they went 22:23 I abandoned all hope realizing WR wasn\'t getting the pace help I thought he needed.
The top three ran well, did Stallwaking Dude improve or the top two regress? Good final time odd splits imo.
Can\'t fault Rock Fall but haven\'t seen him chase a :44 half mile or Trouble Kid sub :22 second quarter. So BCS price probably 3/1 ish doesn\'t excite me. Even guessing TG #\'s come back strong for today. Its the AP syndrome can\'t bet him too many bettors like em.
re: Maggie knowing Lonhro top Aussie sire surely on her radar.
eljayar52 wrote: I can\'t afford to be a TG man but love the game.
_________________________________
I don\'t want to comment about other\'s finances esp someone who loves the game. But with admission fee, the cost of a racing form, and playing just one track, wouldn\'t it be worth it to purchase the data for one track on a given day and focus in on that track only with a potential edge (TG data)?
Probably a good place to mention last Saturday on a drive from Lexington to Louisville, I was listening to Dave Johnson and Mr. Grening of DRF on Sirius. Johnson asked Grening what type of handicapper he is working for DRF. Johnson pointed out he uses Thorograph Speed Figures and thinks they are the best figures out there.
A little announcer history for everyone out there. Dave Johnson, famous for his trademarked Down the Stretch call, started his announcing career in 1965 at Cahokia Downs and Fairmount Park. Not sure if he followed immediately after Johnson but I believe Tom Durkin was next in line at Fairmount and Cahokia.
Businesses have an uncanny way of listening to their customers when their customers walk away and of reliably delivering the same old fare as long as their customers are willing to stomach it. If you want to be heard, close up your wallet. I guarantee you things will then change.
Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> eljayar52 wrote: I can\'t afford to be a TG man
> but love the game.
>
> _________________________________
>
> I don\'t want to comment about other\'s finances esp
> someone who loves the game. But with admission
> fee, the cost of a racing form, and playing just
> one track, wouldn\'t it be worth it to purchase the
> data for one track on a given day and focus in on
> that track only with a potential edge (TG data)?
>
>
> Probably a good place to mention last Saturday on
> a drive from Lexington to Louisville, I was
> listening to Dave Johnson and Mr. Grening of DRF
> on Sirius. Johnson asked Grening what type of
> handicapper he is working for DRF. Johnson
> pointed out he uses Thorograph Speed Figures and
> thinks they are the best figures out there.
>
> A little announcer history for everyone out there.
> Dave Johnson, famous for his trademarked Down the
> Stretch call, started his announcing career in
> 1965 at Cahokia Downs and Fairmount Park. Not
> sure if he followed immediately after Johnson but
> I believe Tom Durkin was next in line at Fairmount
> and Cahokia.
Sorta recall that Tony Bentley also got a swing in the batting cage there, early-on, but am subject to correction . . .