Pennsylvania Derby (GII)
PP horse (weight) jockey/trainer odds
1. War Story (117) Parker/Radosevich 20-1
2. Island Town (122) Hernandez Jr./Wilkes 10-1
3. Frosted (124) Rosario/McLaughlin 5-2
4. Iron Fist (117) Smith/Hollendorfer 8-1
5. Madefromlucky (122) Velazquez/Pletcher 4-1
6. Gimme Da Lute (122) Garcia/Baffert 5-1
7. Tommy Macho (117) Castellano/Pletcher 10-1
8. Battle Midway (117) Gryder/Zito 20-1
9. Upstart (122) Ortiz/Violette 9-2
10.Mr. Z (119) Saez/Lukas 10-1
Boy, could Lukas give Mr. Z a rest? His Sheet is starting to look like one of Randi Persaud\'s 12,000 claimer\'s...
Interesting race.
On first glance Frosted as the highweight yet again in allowance conditions looks like a bet against to me.
Not sure if I would make this the ROTW. Haven\'t seen the sheets, but the 1-2-4-5-8-10 are unbettable and slow. Upstart has been awful. Gimmedalute was poor last time out. As was tommy macho, which was disappointing as I thought he was becoming a runner.
Frosted ran well last time and will be 7-5 here.
Not sure I see a bet
Rob
\"Not sure I see a bet\"
Rob,
When Fraud-sted is 7-5 there\'s always the chance for a bet.Forgetting figs for a moment, take a hard look at his pp\'s.Find it interesting that aside from his maiden win, he has run down exactly one horse in his career, Tencendur.Without question the one to beat but Upstart dusted him twice and continues to look and train well at Belmont, becoming enigmatic.
If Upstart does not run big, will have to consider he\'s somehow gone over the top to that place of no return.
Mike
ringato3 Wrote:
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> As was tommy macho, which was disappointing as I
> thought he was becoming a runner.
I expect both Pletcher horses to magically improve at
Philthy (PARX).
Maybe others, too. [==[|||)---
Mike,
I hear u about frosted. And u make a good point.
But I have to tell u, I am shocked to hear u mention upstart. U and I discussed him after the haskell. I thought he was terrible there. U saw some \"sneaky run\". One of two of my sharper handicapper buddies saw what u saw and despite not agreeing, I included upstart in my play in the travers. (Was also influenced by welsch going gaga over his works prior to travers.
Horse was worse than disgusting to me in the travers. Sat rail, off the leaders, who went head to head for mile and crawled late. Upstart lost ground versus two dead horses in stretch. To me \"race track awful\" as u like to say.
Wouldn\'t bet a wooden nickel on that horse. I am still disgusted I bet him last time.
What excuse u gonna give him this time. Over the top before derby, needed the haskell, bad in travers and now bounces back in 3 weeks.
No thanks
I would give Gimmedalute a mulligan for his last race and bet him. If anybody.
Rob
Rob,
Get your drift and can see it clearly.Fast trumps everything in my read, broadly speaking,Upstart is or was fast.Tend to be more liberal with mulligans with fast ones vs the grinder/ground loaded fig type or overall slug...just my take.
Third off the layoff is the final chance and hope he will stay OFF the inside where he ran most of his fastest races.By no means a stand, but without having seen pp\'s fig\'s,first inclination is to attack Fraud-sted if a viable option presents, may not be the case.
Mike
Have a question that i am curious about. This race is 1 1/8th. Travers was 1 1/4. That change your opinion on Upstart, or Frosted, or anyone else?
Distance seems better on Sat for most,more for Upstart imo,but if they are over the top(Upstart?) or gutted from a recent effort/s(Frosted?)not much else matters.Kiaran a bit of a Kool Aid drinker so it surprises me he\'s back in 3 weeks with Frosted after a tough fought Travers.
Many in here heavily campaigned/training, shipping, shortish rest.Race is far more tricky than it looks on pp\'s/figs imo which means Frosted will whistle @ like $4.40
MJ,
I think the cutback helps Frosted. I could make a case that he wins at 1 1/8 in the Travers and the extra distance did him no good.
As for Upstart, that is an impossible case to make. Horse has run well for less than a mile his last 3 starts. To me he has the classic look of a horse that is just off form. Still looks good in workouts, because he is a fast horse, but then he gets in a race and packs it in after less than a mile. I am sure I am going to put him in the winner\'s circle, but I wouldn\'t take 20-1 on him.
I think 1 1/8 is stretching it for Gimmedalute, but he certainly seems to have a better shot there than I would ever give him at 1 1/4. The problem with him, I think, is that I don\'t think the price will be there. He is 5-1 ML, which I would take in a heartbeat, but I think 3-1 is what he goes off at. There just aren\'t too many horses to bet. Madefromlucky at 9/2 and Upstart at 9/2 look like foolish morning lines. Would bet almost anything that Gimmedalute goes off shorter than both.
Rob
It\'s Baffert at Parx on a tight MP-like surface. \"DaLute\" takes them pretty far in this one.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Similar to Mth in more ways than surface.
Re that, for those who don\'t normally bet Parx but handicap the Saturday card using TG, you will see a couple of the all time great move-up sheets, 4th and 8th races. It would be funny, if there wasn\'t betting. And it\'s going on regularly.
I would be crushed to find out that Ramon Preciado and Marcos Zulueta are not what the Parx Trainer Stats say they are.
The entire Delaware Valley circuit (toss MP in there as well) a cesspool.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
\"DaLute\" takes them pretty far in this one\'
Joe B,
GDL has a sprint figure, two back, that can beat Fraud-sted who looks solid on all numbers.Distance on Sat looks to be his outer limit.
Good luck
Mike
In fact, to bring this string full circle, I think I\'ll do the Gallant Bob as ROTW tomorrow.
What, me worry?
\"move up\" sheet?
I like several numbers in this race and in order of appreciation.
a. 20 twenty to one is the m/l price of War Story. My argument is subjective, Although he won his first two races, I make him a late developer and I saw his finish in the WVD a similar tip off as was Keen Ice\'s Haskell finish I see him as improving plus a new trainer not unfamiliar with \"move up\" venues.
b. 2 War Story has beaten Keen Ice twice and was liked by many early from this years discounted FG crop. Completely irrelevant to math players but best I could come up with late night for #2.
c. 3 this is his 3rd race off his KD clunker he consistently runs in the top 3 in large part because of his running style. He may not catch the winner or figure in the horizontals - hey, sometimes we have to take what we can get.
I also consider Hollendorfer\'s decision to run Iron Fist back puzzling. IF made what looked to be a winning move @ Mnr and flattened out noticeable. After all he is one of a select few to have beaten American Pharoah. Yes meaningless, other than to tip much was expected of him early and he c/b another late developer. Alas, the Smith/Hollendorfer discount is deep.
\"move up\" sheet? Trouble Kid
Horse has really blossomed under the care of a trainer that shows patience, gives horses more rest than most trainers, really has a beat on hind end work others don\'t worry about and really has horsemanship skills most guys today just don\'t possess.
On a completely unrelated note, has anyone ever noticed a strong trend that parx shippers to Mth rarely replicate their form at the Shore?
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I like several numbers in this race and in order
> of appreciation.
>
> a. 20 twenty to one is the m/l price of War Story.
> My argument is subjective, Although he won his
> first two races, I make him a late developer and I
> saw his finish in the WVD a similar tip off as was
> Keen Ice\'s Haskell finish I see him as improving
> plus a new trainer not unfamiliar with \"move up\"
> venues.
>
> b. 2 War Story has beaten Keen Ice twice and was
> liked by many early from this years discounted FG
> crop. Completely irrelevant to math players but
> best I could come up with late night for #2.
>
> c. 3 this is his 3rd race off his KD clunker he
> consistently runs in the top 3 in large part
> because of his running style. He may not catch the
> winner or figure in the horizontals - hey,
> sometimes we have to take what we can get.
>
> I also consider Hollendorfer\'s decision to run
> Iron Fist back puzzling. IF made what looked to be
> a winning move @ Mnr and flattened out noticeable.
> After all he is one of a select few to have beaten
> American Pharoah. Yes meaningless, other than to
> tip much was expected of him early and he c/b
> another late developer. Alas, the
> Smith/Hollendorfer discount is deep.
War Story an interesting thought. I think you\'re better off concentrating the expected improvement in the 2 and 3 holes of your tri ticket---of course assuming a fair track.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
You don\'t need a weather man to know the way the wind blows...
Two more examples if you get the sheets for The Noble Damsel (career top for 5yo Coffee Clique at Parx) and the PA Derby (Ian Wilkes tomorrow with the \"dangerous\" Island Town).
Wait,is this the same Ian Wilkes who would need a GPS to find the Saratoga winner\'s circle?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Those aren\'t close to the level of the two trained by Preciado. Not in the same universe.
We\'re talking about a horse getting kicked around for maiden 15, and two starts later he runs fast enough to win a graded race.
I bet the Wilkes horse in that race, he was a clear bet off the pattern and buried race.
It IS a great game!!!
I am not coming up with anything I can sink into here. If I were to bet this one, I would go with Catalina Red.
In the Cotillion I\'m coming up with Chatterbox. Then again, a lot of people will be on this one too. The PA Derby has Frosted as the quickest on the TGs, but he also had that same edge two back as a top weight and he didn\'t win. Going with Upstart here, horses that faced American Pharoah in two straight starts or more have come back winning or running with marked improvement. Mr. Z and Madefromlucky are the two in the PPs that you can see this pattern.
So I just read the ROTW write-up. Since the term \"we\" was used, I assume a collaboration of TGJB & TGAB at least. Actually I picture someone, whomever, made Trouble Kids sheet after either that last race or the one before it. Standing and insisting that everyone in the TG office had to \"look at this sheet.\"
Since the \"Jet up\" is incredulous it begs a showcase and the Gallant Bob provides just such a spotlight. What else is there to conclude but PED\'s? Prior to going on, I want to say that, while concise, the ROTW analysis is persuasive and objective as always.
In my handicapping, I like to look between the lines, searching for some esoteric trivia that 90% of the time has no bearing on the world of causation. aka Kool Aid.
This time my cursory detective work turned up Trouble Kid a) four different owners and four different trainers to date. I only noticed one claim so a couple of title transfers suggests the horse has been on the radar for awhile.
Then there is the past running lines and the name. Trouble Kid and this one has seen its share in his short career. He has been, checked, steadied, bobbles a start and worn down then caught late prior to just running off and avoiding any possible problem in his last two.
Since I am not an expert I speculate on race dynamics. In this race Trouble Kid must run with other fast horses not mdn claimers. Fast as he is there is potential for a troubled trip, and or bounce say.. 40%. Catalina Red stands to benefit from what I anticipate as an honest fast pace, yet also is 50/50 to lose some ground and will need to pass more than a couple I expect.
I would like Hebbronville but for the price, weight and short rest as noted by TG, that is I can forgive a TG 2 knocking the hell out of a two year old, maybe even view the pattern as sitting on new top now. Believing Colebrook to be patient man Limousine Liberal\'s performance in the 7 Furlong King\'s Bishop still impresses and off that same race wouldn\'t touch Gran Bili now, my choice then.
Yes the Gallant Bob is funny odd, and maybe pathetic ridiculous.
Tavasco Wrote:
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>
> Yes the Gallant Bob is funny odd, and maybe
> pathetic ridiculous.
As Porky Pig would say, \"That\'s PARX, folks!\" (cue \"The Merry-Go-Round Broke Down\")
So are move up sheets identifiable by prediction or mostly in arrears?
Is it obvious to you in a predictive manner or post hoc?
I\'m obviously a little off the score here.....
This is not an alarming move up to me. Young horse moves out from 3 very low
percentage outfits, is gelded and reaches new levels. And of course, one has
to notice that the front bandages have come off, so we can imagine the rapid
improvement can at least be partially attributed to mass quantities of
antiphlogistineTM, Bigel OilTM and AbsorbineTM, not to mention that Ramoney Preciado probably sits
for hours hosing the legs of \"The Kid\", creating a small lake on the
backstretch in Bensalem, much the way Frank Whiteley did at Belmont with
Forego...
No Foregos today. Although his Thoro Pattern gives cause for optimism, I see
Trouble for the Kid in the form of a possible reaction and note that for all
of his miraculous move ups, RPrec\'s strike rate in stakes races is 7%.
I\'ll go fishing for a winner here and come up with Whiting -- Lynn Whiting,
who has been a top midwestern trainer for the last 35 or so years. Like
Hebbronville to move slightly forward off the pair up. 5/1 a decent price for
a runner looking for his fourth straight win for a trainer whose strike rate
in stakes races is above 20%.
You have identified the problem.
For the stat players, re Frosted, Kiaran 0-8 at Parx in graded stakes. Take a look at his prior 8 runners courtesy of DRF:
CARNIVAL COURT (2013 Cotillion - 9th at 9/1) - Had been fading third of 5 in Personal Ensign in previous start, yet that was a career-best race. Ran below best form, but broke through the gate pre-start, and that nearly always leads to disappointment.
ALPHA (2012 Pa Derby - 6th at 4/5) - This is the performance that folks probably feel lends backbone to the raw stats, but lets look at the circumstances. Alpha would go on to finish 12th in the BC Classic in 2012, and subsequent performances validated what seemed to be the case even at the time of the Penn Derby - the 2012 Travers was very poor. And while he beat only one at Parx, Alpha did lose only by about four lengths, and he was stuck on what seemed like a very, very dead rail that day.
IRSAAL (2014 Greenwood Cup - 6th at 9/1) - Coming off a distant second in the 14-furlong Birdstone at Saratoga, but he was fading that day and simply didn\'t stay the 12 furlongs of this dirt marathon. Returned to form later in year when cut back to middle distances.
ASIYA (2013 Cotillion - 6th at 8/1) - Amazingly, she - like her stablemate Carnival Court - also broke through the gate before the start of the Cotillion. Mainly a sprinter, the race was too far for her anyway, and her modest career record suggests she lacked the requisite quality.
TRANSPARENT (2013 Pa Derby - 4th at 5/2) - Bet this low because he was coupled with Albertrani-trained Romansh. Had been ninth last out in the Travers and would have been a much higher price on his own, and on his own would have outrun his odds with a solid 4th-place finish after being stuck on the rail.
RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE (2011 Pa Derby - 3rd at 2/1) - Coming off a second in Stay Thirsty\'s Travers, but you know who was third in that Travers? J W Blue. Not a great Travers. He ran his race in the Penn Derby, beaten by To Honor and Serve and by Ruler on Ice, both of whom were better horses.
QUESTING (2012 Cotillion - 2nd at 2/5) - Okay, beaten odds-on favorite in a short field. Surely that signifies a horse that should have won and didn\'t, right? Not really. She was inside the whole trip, and stalking from the outside was a filly named My Miss Aurelia, who would go on to finish second in Royal Delta\'s tour de force BC Distaff.
IT\'S TRICKY (2011 Cotillion - 2nd at 6/5) - Probably ran a bit below form, but on the other hand, she was chasing loose-on-lead Plum Pretty, who ran out of her mind that day, earning a career-best 108 Beyer in a romping victory. And if It\'s Tricky did perform below her best, it wasn\'t because of a quick turnaround, as the Cotillion was run that year in October, giving the filly six weeks since her previous start at Saratoga.
Difficult to take Frosted here at something to five. Tapit colt is not exactly a win machine and spots serious poundage.
Would expect Mr. Z to zoom to the front after the cutback in last. Though given his remarkable 17 races in 14 months with 9 different boys... doubt he stays there.
For me, its the other Tapit a 1.55 million baby that has been immature thru out his career but looks set for his best. Gorgeous roan is out of a grade three winner (Tempted) and a half to a grade one queen (Test) and gets seven pounds from the favorite, Mikey and should sit second behind the speed.
Late June effort against older was a rare flipped dirt heat and he won\'t have to improve much of that effort to make his presence felt here. Bet hard in West Virginia but things did not work out well for him. Tacked up two days prior for a gallop, but for some reason the track was closed and he pitched a bitch. On the backside warming up Mikey said he was very full of himself and acting a fool, then broke soft, took a ton of dirt, was on the wrong part of the track and still made a solid middle move but the damage was done and he hung a bit.
Jerry had to work him eight days later at Delmar and he worked well into the El Cajon but was scratched for this spot... ten times the purse catches this trainers attention.
Stablemate a race earlier and this colt have been working together and both are very playable at what may be double digit odds.
As for the sophomore sprint strongly prefer the three time stakeswinner over the three time maiden claimer non winner. bbb
Should we applaud or just sigh in this case?
Off the top of my head I would say the answer to that question depends upon if you bet the winner at 13-1 or not.
Nice claim!
A1 ROTW winner.
Super run on the turn as previously.
Jelly
Had small win and alive in PK4 due to TG figs. Still I hate to see these type of trainers get rewarded. You must either play them or skip the race.
Just saw a tweet in which Preciado stated, \"we think Trouble Kid might be allergic to Lasix, so we cut it.\"
That quote is a classic.
He was 14-1 2 min to post and fastest on TG getting 4 lbs from high weights with controlling early speed from good inside post on a track and distance he likes. Odds offset risks for sure.
A major fork in Upstart,could not look worse! Fraud-sted toyed with that field.
Mike
No offense, but u are way late with that fork.... (Showing up with the fork two hours after the last of the lasagna was eaten.....)
I assume u will stop giving him mulligans now? He ran for maybe 5/8 of a mile today.
Maybe time to revisit frank d\'s point about mismanagement, although i still think he is just another \"over the top\" early in the 3 year old season horse.
Rob.
Owner Ms. Hopkins & trainer Preciado are experienced in their act. Below is a link to a Ray Paulick story from back in April where the duo claimed a 1 for 31 hopeless laggard from GP for $12.5 and then routed an ALWnw1x field of seven a little while later after remodeling.
Hopkins & Preciado (http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/win-no-1000-for-ramon-preciado/)
I googled Barbara Hopkins and all I found was a chemistry professor @ Xavier University in Cincinnati no horse women in Philly. I\'m curious. While Preciado can apparently move most all horses up he apparently looks for a particular physical ailment for targeted claims.
My observation of other move up trainers seemed to indicate the trainers install stamina in their projects. The horses just seemed not to tire or decelerate and improved their numbers in that way.
Preciado seems to do even more. Trouble Kid as an example went roughly :22 & :44 for the 1st half mile. So somehow Preciado has, in addition to adding stamina, increased raw speed by seconds per quarter mile?
Richiebee points out the issues of gelding and front bandages as maladies which can be cured with marked performance improvements. I\'m curious about what conditions could explain a dramatic increase in velocity in short distances like the 1st and 2nd quarter mile?
Lastly, is it our observation that move up sheets increase or decrease bouncy bouncy tendencies? Again cool ROTW selection for several reasons. Trainer KM gets off the schneid and Colebrooks confidence warranted.
Maybe he looks for horses that are allergic to lasix, but rather than get them off it he just cuts it with spring water.
I\'ve been noticing my buddies just seemed to keep going and going as soon as they started cutting their Jack Daniels with water, coke, or diet coke. And as far as i know they arent even allergic to the stuff.
Must be something to it.
\"He ran for maybe 5/8 of a mile today\"
Rob,
Upstart\'s performance falls under the \"didn\'t run a step category\" which is to say, when they run that badly, figs are irrelevant, even when the fig comes up ok, though his won\'t.
Upstart took a strong late flash $$ which give me some pre race confidence(needed him or 4,5 for nice pick 4) Sure the connections are scratching their heads esp if he came out fine.
Mike
Pretty funny.
Everyone should check out the Red Board room. As bad as Trouble Kid\'s move-up was, his horse in the last was even worse. I hadn\'t looked at that race until I was out there. And by the way, that allowance race, also 3yos, went a second faster than the Gallant Bob.
Fig and TPattern had him as must use.
I\'m not going to pretend to be an expert on pre-race body language and such. But I was 2 feet from the walking ring and Iron Fist was an absolute mess. Amazing that he ran so well.
Nice middle (and wide) move by Tommy Macho. One to watch.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Both horses were vet scratches for their prior trainer and then changed hands.
Would be interesting to see how many times this has happened out of all the move ups. An obvious physical problem corrected plus his secret sauce makes for a potent formula for sure. One thing, he is not telling and Parx is not holding a press conference to inquire. Most of us would agree either way it is not good for the game.
The stats on Trouble Kid\"s owner Barbara Hopkins.
2015 starts 108, wins 36, place 26 win% 33% Trainer Ramon Preciado
2014 Ranked 66 for wins by owner. Source Equibase
Okay. So the other move-up horse from the same barn that ran on Pa Derby day came back on short rest. You\'ll see he ran okay.
People tell me I\'m paranoid about this stuff. Paranoids have enemies too.
You\'re not paranoid...the figs are the figs...\"res ipsa loquitur\".
Besides...there is a saying \"Just because your paranoid doesn\'t mean that they are not out to get you\"!
John
Yossarian in the movie version of Catch-22.