What\'s even crazier than Uncle Sigh not hitting the board were the payouts. And once again, a west coast shipper comes in with nothing numbers and blows away the field. Something\'s wrong here.
Why don\'t you make a list of the last 50 west coast shippers and we\'ll pull them. We only hear about them when they run well.
If you give me access to the data, I\'ll do an analysis of Cali. horses\' performance shipping east. How many improved, paired or regressed.
jerry Wrote:
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> What\'s even crazier than Uncle Sigh not hitting
> the board were the payouts. And once again, a west
> coast shipper comes in with nothing numbers and
> blows away the field. Something\'s wrong here.
Figs are figs, and the tote board reflected them . . . but I haven\'t been sorry over the years when looking to fade those belatedly-emerging from the Triple Crown (esp. KD) meatgrinder, AFTER L-E-N-G-H-Y layoffs . . .
Uncle Sigh\'s not the same horse. Not even close.
You know, that\'s a great idea. We should do something like that, for every track in the country, all the effin time. We should set up a program to do it automatically at the push of a button, and show us the results, going to and from each individual track.
Oh, wait...
Sometimes I wonder what you guys think we do here. I make my living at this, and have for a long time. I\'ve done more \"projection\" figure days than Beyer, Ragozin (and possibly Friedman) put together. At the risk of giving Vito an aneurysm, I\'m the best who ever lived at this. And the guy who runs our data base is George White, who ran the Racing Times, set up the data base that Equibase and the rest of the industry uses, and knows more about that s--t than anyone.
So I have a clue. Miff spends a lot of time on this stuff, basically on one circuit, occasionally he raises a legit issue. But if you ain\'t spending that kind of time, forget it. You\'re wasting both our time.
Was it really such a shock?
First of all, Contessa at 3/5? Not me.
Second, my notes have Uncle Sigh a notorious slow breaker.
A few other things, but I can tell you there was plenty of money in the pool against. They are not always right, but they were definitely taking shots there.
As for the Cali. Lightly raced 2yo stretching out to what might be a more suitable distance, and you\'re going to hang your hat on the past fig as gospel? Really?
Not saying you KNOW what\'s going to happen , but after it does, claiming its some shock is not reasonable.
Boscar Obarra Wrote:
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> Was it really such a shock?
>
> First of all, Contessa at 3/5? Not me.
>
> Second, my notes have Uncle Sigh a notorious
> slow breaker.
>
> A few other things, but I can tell you there was
> plenty of money in the pool against. They are not
> always right, but they were definitely taking
> shots there.
>
> As for the Cali. Lightly raced 2yo stretching out
> to what might be a more suitable distance, and
> you\'re going to hang your hat on the past fig as
> gospel? Really?
>
> Not saying you KNOW what\'s going to happen , but
> after it does, claiming its some shock is not
> reasonable.
Amen.
During the Monday 2 person seminar :) at the Carousel, I can verify that Topcat pretty emphatically said that Uncle Sigh just does not like to win. The 4 1/2 off the layoff was probably it for him. Likely bounce and a \'play against\'.
Personally, I took a Tittle to Shofner (that would be a pass for you young fellas) on that event.
As for 2 yo numbers.
As we all know, 2yo\'s jump up all the time.
My impression was that the Rudy horse at 2-1 with 10 to 11 type figs was no standout. Any horse that jumped up a bit was eligible to win that dash.
No big deal so we move on to beautiful Belmont Park
YA
belmont3 Wrote:
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> During the Monday 2 person seminar :) at the
> Carousel, I can verify that Topcat pretty
> emphatically said that Uncle Sigh just does not
> like to win. The 4 1/2 off the layoff was probably
> it for him. Likely bounce and a \'play against\'.
> Personally, I took a Tittle to Shofner (that would
> be a pass for you young fellas) on that event.
>
>
Thought it was a classic case of \"the spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak\". I understand the temptation to throw a horse like that into the Triple Crown maw, but if the horse isn\'t up to it (as US wasn\'t), subsequent results can be less than pretty. Fact it took more than a year for him to make it back was telling. He gave it his best shot off the break, but in the second run on the rebound, he wasn\'t facing a bunch of bums by any stretch on Labor Day, and couldn\'t deal with what he was up against. A powerful fade . . . and, yes, turn the page.
Interesting interpretations. If JB posts that race,would like to hear how Uncle Sigh did not look like a TG layover GOING IN.From memory, only scenario was if someone wired him but there was no confirmed speed. Nothing came close on figs to him and he worked back after the 4.5. An X wasn\'t my read.
For pick 6 purposes,he was probably a single on many tickets ,small or otherwise.
Horses coming out of the KD are some of the best bet against in horse racing. Given the usual 20 starters less than half ever win another race in their career after the first Saturday in May.
From what was reported on this board and by their pre-Derby numbers to be an above average crop, in the 4 months since the 2015 KD the number of winners is 3. That\'s AP (triple crown winner), Mr Z and Keen Ice.
miff Wrote:
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> Interesting interpretations. If JB posts that
> race,would like to hear how Uncle Sigh did not
> look like a TG layover GOING IN.From memory, only
> scenario was if someone wired him but there was no
> confirmed speed. Nothing came close on figs to him
> and he worked back after the 4.5. An X wasn\'t my
> read.
>
> For pick 6 purposes,he was probably a single on
> many tickets ,small or otherwise.
US was ABSOLUTELY the layover number. But he was CRUSHED in the pools, and given his career scenario, he could be legitimately read as a realistic regression possibility -- and thus markedly-vulnerable, at the market. Would anyone be surprised if he\'s retired, and soon?
Topcat
Race is old news now and I am happy for u and others who may have hit it.
But....
There is a Grand Canyon of difference between identifying Uncle Sigh as a Regression candidate
And
Finding a viable alternative in the race.
I saw the horse in the entries and was excited to look at the PPs and sheet for the race, hoping to find somebody to back against him. And then skipped the race because the nearest competitors were about 30 beyer points slower at theor tops (need help with the TG translation)
Hoping for horses to back up 20 or 30 points and then guessing which slow slug would be the one to beat him isn\'t my cup of tea.
But like I said, kudos to those that did.
Easy regression call. Not an easy call to assume a 30 point regression or pick a winner in the race.
Rob
Small ($288) ticket me and my buddy split singled on Uncle Sigh. At that price tag we needed two singles and the only other horse on the card we felt comfortable singling was Gap Year.
Mott getting 32% new tops turf to dirt, along with the fact that the eventual winner\'s last-out turf race had the look of having been an out for exercise effort (DRF comment line from that race was something like \"not persevered with\") made him a little intriguing, but figured he still had to move up significantly from the 8 top.
US had the lead at the stretch call of his comebacker, and he supposedly was a little short for it. Figured absolute worst case was he went back a little, and thought even a 6 or so still made him the most likely winner. Wouldn\'t have mattered anyway as we also ended up whiffing on the Hopeful...