Can\'t help but think two races in three weeks, shipping across the county and back again, was just insane. Do they even know their horse? It was very unfair in my opinion, asking him to do too much. Don\'t get me wrong, I really liked Keen Ice today, but this horse is way bigger than just cashing or not cashing a small bet in one race. The purse of 1.25 million is also paltry compared to whatever they\'ll get for syndication. So why not pick one, Haskell or Travers??? That kind of experience can ruin a horse mentally. I\'d be very leery of his next couple races, if he even races again. You want him in the Breeder\'s Cup? You can have him. I mean, he looked like a completely different horse in the flesh today compared with the Haskell. And on NBC they said he gained weight??? I doubt that. I told Victor Espinoza on Social media Monday I thought this race might get him, and, strangely, he was wasn\'t angry with me (later I thought I shouldn\'t have said that to him). He agreed this would be his toughest race. Am I over analyzing here? Maybe so, but since I began following English racing and I realize how bad Lasix really is for horses, I\'m more aware of these things. That Haskell though it looked easy was a tremendous performance, and in the heat especially a horses\'s energy is drained by the effects of Lasix. You don\'t give that kind of performance and come back three weeks later and repeat it. Just makes me wonder what the hell they were thinking?
Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can\'t help but think two races in three weeks,
> shipping across the county and back again, was
> just insane. Do they even know their horse? It was
> very unfair in my opinion, asking him to do too
> much. Don\'t get me wrong, I really liked Keen Ice
> today, but this horse is way bigger than just
> cashing or not cashing a small bet in one race.
> The purse of 1.25 million is also paltry compared
> to whatever they\'ll get for syndication. So why
> not pick one, Haskell or Travers??? That kind of
> experience can ruin a horse mentally. I\'d be very
> leery of his next couple races, if he even races
> again. You want him in the Breeder\'s Cup? You can
> have him. I mean, he looked like a completely
> different horse in the flesh today compared with
> the Haskell. And on NBC they said he gained
> weight??? I doubt that. I told Victor Espinoza on
> Social media Monday I thought this race might get
> him, and, strangely, he was wasn\'t angry with me
> (later I thought I shouldn\'t have said that to
> him). He agreed this would be his toughest race.
> Am I over analyzing here? Maybe so, but since I
> began following English racing and I realize how
> bad Lasix really is for horses, I\'m more aware of
> these things. That Haskell though it looked easy
> was a tremendous performance, and in the heat
> especially a horses\'s energy is drained by the
> effects of Lasix. You don\'t give that kind of
> performance and come back three weeks later and
> repeat it. Just makes me wonder what the hell they
> were thinking?
The horse has been syndicated already, so what they\'ll get (they meaning Zayat) was decided before this race. If you\'re going to rant, you should at least be aware of that first because it\'s been discussed everywhere. Jerardi even wrote that Coolmore offered Zayat a lump sum to retire the horse now, because any losses or injuries might affect Coolmore\'s future earnings from breeding. Coolmore, not Zayat---his time to enjoy the horse is now.
As far as what \"they\" were thinking, They were thinking they might have an all-time great horse and if they didn\'t run the Travers it would be a mark against him. So they tried it. And they lost. It happens. Happens to almost all of them, actually.
Zayat wanted to run him all along in the Travers. Biggest thing is they should of shipped him straight to Saratoga after the Haskell..any hiccups you can still scratch him..
Zayat came of like a sore loser yesterday with his comments..
Two races in Three weeks?
Are you talking the Triple Crown wore him down?
This was AP\'s first race in a month after a pretty easy effort at Monmouth. Unfortunately, I got hung up in a Fantasy Football draft and missed the chance to ring the bell.
Keen Ice was coming on. That Haskell was no mirage where Ice closed into a track on a day that was difficult. Still AP hung on and ran for second and my hope when the time came was to count him out. For those with the conviction Saratoga was the right place and time to ring up that winning ticket though.
Noted the come home fraction was over 26.5 seconds. Frosted did the deed on a track that to my eye, (charts), went slow, fast, slow.......real hard to be certain with all the turf racing and the lack of dirt heats late.
When we projected AP\'s defeat this track was one you had to factor. If AP\'s owners get cold feet now, who can blame them. But their horse should relish Keeneland and if they pass they go out losing to Keen Ice a horse many said wasn\'t even in the picture. AP\'s connections need to prove it wasn\'t a fluke!
Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can\'t help but think two races in three weeks,
> shipping across the county and back again, was
> just insane. Do they even know their horse? It was
> very unfair in my opinion, asking him to do too
> much. Don\'t get me wrong, I really liked Keen Ice
> today, but this horse is way bigger than just
> cashing or not cashing a small bet in one race.
> The purse of 1.25 million is also paltry compared
> to whatever they\'ll get for syndication. So why
> not pick one, Haskell or Travers??? That kind of
> experience can ruin a horse mentally. I\'d be very
> leery of his next couple races, if he even races
> again. You want him in the Breeder\'s Cup? You can
> have him. I mean, he looked like a completely
> different horse in the flesh today compared with
> the Haskell. And on NBC they said he gained
> weight??? I doubt that. I told Victor Espinoza on
> Social media Monday I thought this race might get
> him, and, strangely, he was wasn\'t angry with me
> (later I thought I shouldn\'t have said that to
> him). He agreed this would be his toughest race.
> Am I over analyzing here? Maybe so, but since I
> began following English racing and I realize how
> bad Lasix really is for horses, I\'m more aware of
> these things. That Haskell though it looked easy
> was a tremendous performance, and in the heat
> especially a horses\'s energy is drained by the
> effects of Lasix. You don\'t give that kind of
> performance and come back three weeks later and
> repeat it. Just makes me wonder what the hell they
> were thinking?
Lets have a bit of a reality check here. Do I think Zayat pushed Baffert to run in the Travers. Yes. Was this probably not a great decision. Yes. I am not a Baffert fan or a Zayat fan especially after yesterday. But really after winning the Haskell with ease and clearly coasting at the end of an 1 1/8 race, this should of not been a tough race for AP. He got the perfect set up again. A horse that constantly gets perfect setups and he did not perform.
You really need three things to pull off the very difficult task of winning a triple crown: 1. Great racing luck especially with pace scenarios. 2. Preferably a weak field of three year olds that can be dominated. 3. An excellent racehorse(some of the past triple crown winners have been so good they really didn\'t need #1 or #2.)
In the case of Pharoah, factors #1 and #2 were much larger reasons for AP winning the triple crown then #3. Remember the Kentucky Derby? The first three horses nearly crawled the first half mile (47and change) on a day the track was lightning fast. These fractions were the slowest of the day. After a half mile in the Derby everyone knew one of the first three horses at the half mile would win. Some people claimed \"the second best derby ever run after secretariat\" Absurd. Anyone who saw how the track was playing that day saw how the Derby was stolen. In the Preakness who knows? Crazy weather. yet another easy trip. Monster horse Tale of Verve was second. And then of course the Belmont. Same story. Easy lead, back up, run hard last 3/8ths.
And how about the quality of horses? What happened to the heavily hyped, Upstart, Materiality, Dortmund, Frosted. Best in the group is the late plodding Keen Ice. Looked like a great Derby was about to happen. Then one of the worst ever. All this incredible talent was overhyped as well.
I think it is great for the sport to have a triple crown winner. But this horse is the worst triple crown winner ever as far as ability. Finally caught just a little bit of pressure today, still with easy fractions and he spit the bit. Did you see the closing quarter?
I am sure soon we will hear the story of some type of fake injury so that AP doesn\'t have to run again. He will get squashed in the classic if he does run. Zayat is too greedy to risk that.
So goodbye AP. Baffert and Zayat will take the cowards way out and instead spin stories for years about your so called greatness. I just wish AP would do me one last favor as he walks into the sunset. Take Baffert and Zayat with you. And Bode too.
AP was a good horse. A fortunate horse too.
He slugged it out to win a Derby and nothing was left in the Belmont.
The Haskell was made for him and the end of that race foretold the future.
When looking over the fractions and the track conditions, we shouldn\'t lose track of the fact that Monmouth and Saratoga are vastly different surfaces.
The key fraction to my eye in the Travers was that they went 1.35 for a mile after slower earlier marks. Come the last quarter they were gassed. Pharoah ran his race, he just ran into conditions a Baffert trainee is generally going to struggle with. Guess how many Travers Baffert has won? One with Point Given to my recollection.
Guess how many Haskell\'s Baffert has won? 5 of 6 or something like that with speedballs. He brings them to Monmouth for a reason. Add the extra 1/8th, throw in a fair surface and a little pace and that\'s the recipe. This was not unexpected.
So he\'s not a Seattle Slew or a Spectacular Bid, but no one really thought he was.
Now that Keen Ice...he\'s outta Curlin and an Awesome Again mare. That\'s a racehorse, hope some of you got some of that mutual.
Be kind to Zayat he just had his balloon burst. Hindenburg style. Zayat will show sportsmanship and run again.
It didn\'t look like himself yesterday. He usually looks like he\'s just cruising. Yesterday, he was having to work from the opening bell. He\'s run some hard races this year, 5 negative numbers within the span of 4 months. I think it showed yesterday. This guy needs a vacation.
Zayat? Greed? Ego? All of the above.
T Severini Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Two races in Three weeks?
>
> Are you talking the Triple Crown wore him down?
No. We are talking about the cumulative effects of:
1) Huge efforts
2) Multiple cross country trips. It is far more taxing shipping from California to the East Coast, than it is for horses already based east of the Mississippi.
3) Huge efforts followed by short rest.
1+2+3= regression. Its TG performance analysis 101.
> This was AP\'s first race in a month after a pretty
> easy effort at Monmouth. Unfortunately, I got
> hung up in a Fantasy Football draft and missed the
> chance to ring the bell.
Running a -3 isn\'t an easy effort, its the fastest he\'s ever run from a figure standpoint.
Fantasy Football draft. Thankfully, we don\'t have to read about how you picked up Joe Schmoe in the 8th round.
> Keen Ice was coming on. That Haskell was no
> mirage where Ice closed into a track on a day that
> was difficult. Still AP hung on and ran for second
> and my hope when the time came was to count him
> out. For those with the conviction Saratoga was
> the right place and time to ring up that winning
> ticket though.
Keen Ice was a point slower than AP\'s figure the last time he fired a -3. Combine that with the travel, Baffert\'s Spa record, and his reluctance to run him in the first place............agree with you here, those that played Keen Ice had their reasons for doing so.
> Noted the come home fraction was over 26.5
> seconds. Frosted did the deed on a track that to
> my eye, (charts), went slow, fast, slow.......real
> hard to be certain with all the turf racing and
> the lack of dirt heats late.
Agree. JB will have work to do coming up with figures for the card.
> When we projected AP\'s defeat this track was one
> you had to factor. If AP\'s owners get cold feet
> now, who can blame them. But their horse should
> relish Keeneland and if they pass they go out
> losing to Keen Ice a horse many said wasn\'t even
> in the picture. AP\'s connections need to prove it
> wasn\'t a fluke!
Baffert wanted to go to Parx (assertion alert), Zayat wanted the Travers. It is a very noble and sporting gesture on his part, and from here whatever he wants to do is fine with me. The problem with running yesterday, is that it makes for awkward spacing into the next race or 2. Run in 4 weeks at SA then another 5 in the BC after a year long campaign where the colt was shipped all over the place? Train up to the BC? This horse has had a long and taxing campaign. If they run in the BC, I think training up to it is the thing to do. I believe M Jellish made that point.
I\'ve already said I think we just saw his last race. Hope I\'m wrong.
I\'m probably in the minority here, but he ran a great race in defeat. Frosted pressed him from the backstretch up until he had nothing left and they ran the mile was in 1:35. Saratoga is a track that punishes runners for going that fast, it happened to Liam\'s Map a few weeks earlier. The damage was done. Travers to Classic seems to be the likely outcome of this frenzy. That\'s not really going out on a limb though.
Keen Ice is a good runner and will probably continue to mature. His finish kind of reminded of the 2007 JCGC that his sire ran. He also won picking up more weight than the odds-on chalk.
Frosted may be better suited for middle distance races from what I\'ve seen in his two efforts at the spa.
>
> Fantasy Football draft. Thankfully, we don\'t have
> to read about how you picked up Joe Schmoe in the
> 8th round.
>
>
lol.....yeah, well...
FYI my longshot is Darren Waller in the 16th round.
I would have cashed, though no exotics. Having missed the day, I\'m curious what Big1871 may have done. He was high on Keen Ice improvement also.
Keen Ice was on a career forge and he continued to go forward in my estimation. Both Upstart and Frosted were -2 history animals if I\'m not mistaken. Ice is the classic late developer, bred to be so, and should be a big factor now if he stays sound.
I agree with your analysis of the Travers and a precocious horse perhaps finding his peers improving. But an owner is first and foremost a Sportsman and one would think he would relish a race at Keeneland to set the record straight.
Coronado,
Comparing the travers and the whitney pace is silly. (Being kind and politically correct - a stronger word should be used)
3 year olds Vs older horses
1 1/8 mile vs 1 1/4 miles
In case u still want to compare, it gets \"sillier\". 22.3, 46 flat and 1:09.3
Vs. 24.1. 48.1, 1:11.2
So, the pace was 10 lengths faster to the 1st quarter, 13 lengths faster to the half and 11 lengths faster to the 3/4 mile.
Track variant needs to be factored in, but not sure it is going to ne much different.
No argument for anybody that says was AP ran gallant in defeat.
Nowhere near running \"great\". Silly statement.
Rob
T Severini Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >
> > Fantasy Football draft. Thankfully, we don\'t
> have
> > to read about how you picked up Joe Schmoe in
> the
> > 8th round.
> >
> >
>
> lol.....yeah, well...
>
> FYI my longshot is Darren Waller in the 16th
> round.
>
> I would have cashed, though no exotics. Having
> missed the day, I\'m curious what Big1871 may have
> done. He was high on Keen Ice improvement also.
>
> Keen Ice was on a career forge and he continued to
> go forward in my estimation. Both Upstart and
> Frosted were -2 history animals if I\'m not
> mistaken. Ice is the classic late developer, bred
> to be so, and should be a big factor now if he
> stays sound.
>
> I agree with your analysis of the Travers and a
> precocious horse perhaps finding his peers
> improving. But an owner is first and foremost a
> Sportsman and one would think he would relish a
> race at Keeneland to set the record straight.
Keen Ice does have a very nice forging line, and I can\'t disagree with your opinion on him.
?
Coronado is wrong about AP\'s effort because he\'s comparing different fractional times at a different distance in a different age class? I thought that\'s what we do?
AP could run against olders, to this point he\'s just not been inclined to.
With the Whitney, you\'ve got another card in the Saratoga summer surrounded by Turf races.
Historically, that 2:01:50 was a darn good Travers time. What did you think you were gonna get with an AP victory, 1:59:20?
It was a game effort. A.P was under real pressure and feelin the heat because the pressure was coming from the outside and looking him in the eye. In the Derby AP got his favored path. This time, he got the pressure applied to him and his peers are now a little stouter. I thought Frosted\'s jockey made a very good tactical decision.
Those were pretty good efforts by Frosted and Upstart too. Forget about the track speed. No one will figure that with precision upon either day.
AP ran his race. He wasn\'t off and it would be a false pretense to claim such as justification to not race again.
Chuckles (once aptly named the denizen of the redboard room - perhaps by richieb)
Nobody handicaps better after the race is over than you.
Coronado is wrong for saying AP got cooked on the pace like Liam\'s map.
He just got beat. Pace was just ok. Slow early, fast middle.
Liam was fast all the way the first 3/4 of a mile.
Pace ain\'t the excuse.
Rob
hmmmmm
I wonder if Zayat has any more left.
I just want another chance to get some.
All you need to know about Zayat I saw on my way into the track on Friday.I was walking down Wright St from my parking spot of about 7 years waiting to cross Nelson Ave down the alley way to the tracks clubhouse side.
The seasonal rent a cops direct traffic and cross pedestrians and to my knowledge in my 43 years no one has ever gotten run over going to the track at this spot.
There was a Saratoga police officer on horseback and a guy in a golf cart following him up the alley way, they stopped at the corner as the track goers were crossing. A female rent a cop simply said to the police officer don\'t back up with the horse, there is a golf cart right behind you.
In a nano second a bald, darker complexion gentlemen with coke bottle glasses let out a F bomb rant directed at the rent a cop. \" He\'s my F\'in escort taking me to see AP you F\'in idiot, what the F is wrong with you and on and on etc....
I looked at who it was and just shook my head. How the F did this guy become a billionaire!!!!!
It was as ugly and classless a move in front of a couple hundred people as I have ever seen.
Frank D.
Bad karma?
Bris:
McLaughlin on Frosted\'s unplanned change of tactics: \'unfortunate for us and maybe for American Pharoah too\'
In the aftermath of Saturday\'s Travers (G1), it\'s an interesting counterfactual to wonder about the effect of the last-minute rider change for Frosted, who tired to third after unexpectedly pressing American Pharoah early.
His regular rider, Joel Rosario, would probably have employed the more patient tactics that have worked well since the pair teamed up in the spring. But Rosario went down in a spill a couple of races earlier on the card in the Forego (G1). Once it was determined that he had to go to Albany Medical Center for X-rays, that put paid to any hopes of his guiding his familiar partner in the \"Midsummer Derby.\"
Jose Lezcano landed the plum pickup mount and made an on-the-spot tactical decision to prompt American Pharoah. After all, Frosted had comfortably gotten himself into a stalking second, while the Triple Crown champion was loping through an opening quarter in :24.68. Lezcano would logically have thought that, unless someone went up to force the issue, \"Pharoah\" would enjoy another cakewalk on the front end. And with Frosted being in position to do so, Lezcano moved him onto the champion\'s flank as they advanced down the backstretch.
That move appeared to pay dividends rounding the far turn, when Pharoah uncharacteristically came under a ride after six furlongs in 1:11.48. Frosted was traveling the better of the pair and briefly headed the Triple Crown winner at the top of the stretch. By that point, eventual winner Keen Ice was several lengths back and already under the whip.
But as we all saw, Pharoah showed the proverbial \"heart of a champion\" to come again and repel Frosted. Thus worn out from his protracted battle, Pharoah had nothing left when Keen Ice stayed on his typically dour fashion and edged clear in the final yards.
Frosted finished a further 2 1/4 lengths adrift in third, and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin commented Sunday on the rider change.
\"It\'s so tough to lose your jockey 30 minutes before the race,\" McLaughlin said. \"Joel has been working him since March and knows him so well and rides him so well. We didn\'t want to engage (American Pharoah) that early but Jose rode him well.
\"It looked like American Pharoah would be on the lead, maybe Upstart would press him, and we\'d be third to fifth. We always break well, but just try to sit third to fifth. He took it upon himself to go and engage him early because no one else was there.
\"It was unfortunate for us and maybe for American Pharoah, too.\"
If Frosted had not pressed Pharoah, he might well have had more punch left late. But by that same logic, wouldn\'t Pharoah have had more left too, and kept finding more if let alone? In hindsight, we can wonder that maybe Pharoah wouldn\'t have found as much as usual, since he wasn\'t giving Victor Espinoza his usual cruising vibe -- something that Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert could pick up from the stands. Or was that rather a result of the pressure? Unless Pharoah was challenged early, his vulnerability on the day might never have been exposed.
Anyway, from a tactical perspective, you\'d have to think that handing Pharoah an uncontested lead is virtually consigning yourself to a minor award -- unless you want to assume that the 3-10 favorite is going to self-implode. By pressing, at least you\'re changing the equation from one that\'s very much against you, to an uncertain one that could work.
The rejoinder to that is maybe Frosted can\'t sustain that kind of prolonged engagement; maybe he just needs to play the hand he\'s dealt, come what may, which Rosario would know.
Still, McLaughlin recognized that Frosted ran a strong race in defeat.
\"He\'s in good shape,\" the horseman said on the day after. \"He certainly put in a good effort; it just wasn\'t exactly the game plan. I was excited at the quarter pole, we were head and head. I thought maybe we were going to get lucky again, but it didn\'t work out. He ran a big race.\"
And McLaughlin was complimentary of a similar audible called by Lezcano on Belmont Day:
\"When Wedding Toast ran (in the Ogden Phipps [G1]), I told (Jose) to lay third. He broke, he (went to the lead), and he kept going and won by five (lengths).\"
I\'m curious why you decided that was the opinion you wanted to post, not all the quotes from Espinoza saying he could feel early on he didn\'t have the same horse under him, or Baffert saying he could see that just watching.
Did not see Bafferts opinion, did see two pace fig guys say middle half cooked top two and winner did 3rd most running. You see those?
Just tell me, if you\'re using T-G Sheets to help manage that horse, do you run him back in 3 weeks after that huge number in the Haskell? Regardless of what the horse was telling them, the sheet number said a big bounce was likely, just as he did back in the spring off similar rest. Why not wait a few more weeks for some other race--when is the PA Derby for example--or even wait for Santa Anita? They must have been paid appearance fees as well though I don\'t know that for sure. That\'s what I mean by greed--you\'re making 50 million or something for syndication and you sell him out for a lousy 50K or whatever they got under the table for showing up. Maybe they\'re not even using sheets, but I find it unlikely that someone on that team wouldn\'t consult T-G sheets--you couldn\'t have missed that bounce coming.
What would I care about that? Seriously?
You have the rider, both right after the race on TV and in the press, saying he could tell he didn\'t have the same horse. You also have common sense, which I went into at great length about yesterday. The last thing in the world I\'m concerned about is another handicappers opinion.
Doing the day now, the horse ran back to about the level of the Preakness and Belmont. WHICH MAKES PERFECT SENSE. You don\'t need to find some complicated reason to explain it. There\'s nothing to explain.
And by the way, the whole race fits well, both internally and with the other route. There\'s no reason to go through all this. It\'s simple. The horse did what he figured to, unfortunately (for me), KI went forward again.
One thing I will say, I was the only one who got the Derby right. Period. No way KI makes any sense at all otherwise.
It was a day under 4 weeks. It always has been.
Mike,
I guess pace guys disagree as often as figure guys. My service has race well sub-par for early pace. Actually to an extreme. Although they slant to 1/2 mile pace call with their figures.
Big difference between saying \"middle fig cooked AP\" and \"pace was fast\".
No doubt AP looked cooked after middle half. But jockey, trainer, and 90% of the people who analyzed the race don\'t think it was related to pace at all (doesn\'t mean they are right, but it doesn\'t look very debatable - 90% likely an understatement) . I think MJellish had it exactly right. The middle half could have had some effect, but not to the effect it did.
The horse just didn\'t run as well.
As for Keen Ice running 3rd best. No argument from me. He sucked up into a 26 and change final quarter.
But if AP was AP from Haskell day, the pace and Keen Ice would have been irrelevant.
Still waiting to hear from connections as to why TExas Red was despicable and Upstart almost as bad with a 1w/1w trip and not even the brief interest he showed in the HAskell. Self loathing all day today for using Upstart instead of Keen Ice when I was posting right after the Haskell how bad Upstart was. Oh well. That is racing.
Rob
Why did just about everyone write 3 weeks? Did hear Espinoza said that, can\'t count?
Dave Johnson has a line about jockeys-- \"They don\'t wear size 5 hats for nothing\".
Try telling Baffert/Espinoza that AP \"ran his race\" as the figure makers figs will suggest.
I\'m thrilled to learn that race dynamics(pace/protracted throw downs are irrelevant in deciding which horses benefited or were hurt.
OK, I stand corrected, but if you take out a day or two of training from the shipping west then east again, it is more like three weeks, and besides your product clearly was not involved in AP\'s management if you read my other post. The pattern from the spring indicates he\'s not pairing up another negative 3 or whatever; he\'s going to react, even considering the h? notation. I\'ve found that handy comment doesn\'t really exclude the possibility of a bounce, because in the end, it is still a huge performance. I guess I\'m the only one who saw that so clearly and failed to make any serious cash from the observation.I\'ll stand by my original opinion, and I don\'t believe their BS that they thought he was doing so well. And lastly I thought Keen Ice ran a great race. I would take nothing away from him. Rosario rode Frosted like he was the best horse, he wasn\'t, but it was a very fairly run race. I just wished the best AP had been able to show his stuff. I personally feel it\'s not fair to the horse. That\'s all I\'m saying.
Dana,
NYRA did not pay any appearance fees what so ever. That\'s a foolish statement.
Baffert wanted no part of this and if Travers was in the original plan he would have come here after the Haskell instead of crossing the country.
Blame social media for driving this engine and Zayat\'s ego he wanted his great champion to win the Travers as only the 2nd TC winner and the only horse ever to win TC, Haskell and Travers. They succumbed to the publics out cry.
The legend of the great one\'s falling at the Spa continues and the next TC winner will try to break the \"Grave yard of favorites\" curse as well.
Frank D.
Dana
0 for 2.
No appearance fee.
And no Rosario.. (although it doesn\'t detract from your point that Lezcano was the jockey).
Rob
Look, I agree he figured to bounce, I said so in the seminar at length. But people get fooled all the time by \"easy\" wins, and by horses looking great coming out of top efforts. Michael Dickinson once told me that when they run big they often come out kicking the barn down, when you run them back they run lousy and come out looking like they ran much harder.
And no, I didn\'t turn that opinion about AP into a profit. Thought KI had no more moves in him short term, and even if I had been right about that AP would have beat me.
You know for a fact no appearance fees? I\'d be a bit skeptical about that but whatever, you nailed it right, ego. I didn\'t realize Baffert was so against it, but that makes the whole situation even worse.
Mike, stop. I didn\'t say AP ran his race, I said he ran the race he figured to run. And I have said pace makes a difference in extreme situations.
I\'m curious. If instead of 48+/46+/ 1:35 they went 47+/47+/1:35 you think it would have made a difference?
Rob,
Pace guys, of course, had AP fastest by a point. In a very very odd race shape it looked:
Early: neutral/slow side
Middle: very fast
Late: very slow
Re the last quarter, one wrote that harness champ Jigglywiggly could have outrun AP/Frosted and nose KI.
Mike
Dana,
As much as I hate the Zayats for a number of reasons posted on this board (by Frank D and others during the triple crown trail), I don\'t see your point at all.
It isn\'t like they tried something \"new\" and went from Haskell to the Travers. For about 15 years now the best 3 year olds go either Haskell/Travers or Jim Dandy/Travers.
Yeah, on this board, which is where we are, sheet readers read \"bounce\". So be it.
But let\'s face it, sheet reading isn\'t exactly mainstream. A minority for sure.
I think the cross country trips may have had an effect. (\"may\" - no assertion)
I have been reading sheets for a lot of years and reading a pattern \"as is\" without looking at how the figures were earned is pretty \"old school\". And AP\'s pattern had more dimensions than most.
1. Derby was a fair race IMO. No major bias no reason to question figure.
2. Preakness was a sea of slop and he spread eagled the field. Major question mark around validity of just calling it a \"3 point backward move\".
3. Belmont a 1 1/2 race, which nobody runs on dirt and our breed isn\'t bred for. Another anomaly type figure. (not saying the figure wasn\'t accurate - just saying when you have things like strange distances and rainstorm/sloppy surfaces, there are OTHER reasons besides a horse\'s form that goes into reading a pattern.
4. A really big figure in the Haskell, run under a strangle hold late.
I don\'t think anybody disagrees that the Travers will be a backward move. So, take your choice:
1. He bounced off the negative 3 in the derby, ran 3 points off two races in a row and figured to bounce again off the big Haskell figure.
2. The cumulative effect of the triple crown, a number of cross country ships, the Saratoga racing surface being very different than Monmouth park, all worked together to have the horse run a sub par race.
I think #1 is WAY too simplistic and not correct in this case but certainly can\'t prove it. And it likely doesn\'t matter going forward. But I think looking at patterns without other factors doesn\'t work, at least when other factors exist. Things like pace, trip, distance, bias and surface (grass/dirt) are all \"other factors that can exist and often do exist.
Rob
JB,
Firstly I don\'t know if your example changes the outcome. But without question I know that 46+ head to head has a profoundly worse effect on a horse than a loose unchallenged 46+. The head to head battle caused the collapse not the time itself.Think if either AP or Frosted were alone in those same exact splits, they win.
They ALL look great out there alone unhooked, wayyyyyy different when eyeballed.
Mike
Dana, Frank etc. I think a history lesson is in order for everyone. As I said late yesterday Secretariat lost TWICE after the Triple Crown and never defeated Older horses on dirt. No one questions his greatness.
Seattle Slew was absolutely drilled in the Swaps next out after the Triple Crown, running 4th by 16. They stopped on him for the rest of the year. He opened the next year with consecutive wins in ALLOWANCE races. He stepped into Stakes company next and promptly got beat. The Patterson Hdcp in September. His fall campaign was stellar except for when Exceller beat him.
Whirlaway? He beat 2 horses in the Travers. TWO!! He lost the Blue Grass and Derby Trial before winning the Triple Crown.
You are right about Social Media and Blogs etc. Could you imagine if AP came back next year and ran in consecutive allowance races? It seems as soon as AP won the Haskel the Travers had to be next spot to prove he was anything. And then where was he going to run back next before The Breeders Cup Classic? At least according to the Tweets and the Blogs....
This horse has already had a tough campaign. He was tested from the bell yesterday , he fought back, he was emptied and got nailed. He wont need a mulligan like those others I mentioned above. I think that\'s the last we have seen of him.....
Rob-- if you say you \"think\" you\'re off the hook re assertion charges, \"may\" is redundant.
miff Wrote:
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> Did not see Bafferts opinion, did see two pace fig
> guys say middle half cooked top two and winner did
> 3rd most running. You see those?
I agree with you.
On figures AP was one length better than a couple others. One of his best figures was in a battle at Churchill where a challenging pace scenario made him very vulnerable. The other was in a cruise at Monmouth where Saturday\'s winner was quickly working into him.
Frosted was wide and beaten three lengths after taking it to AP. And he most certainly did take it to him as the fractions below indicate.
It wasn\'t a surprise and can be replicated.
I did not read Bris, but heres what you had
24:28
24:02
23:18
23:60
26:49 for the finish extrapolating to
Winner 26:09.........Revision...it was 25:49...a good fraction considering. Man, I\'m getting old.
AP 26:69
The track was a variable.
Am not going to put much stock in who said what, especially the losing camp. That camp had no issues until the 3/4 and mile marks where the fractions say the race was decided. That\'s when AP begin to rattle.
Some day we\'ll get into a discussion of which is the cause and which is the effect. Not today.
NYRA was reorganized and its franchise to operate the three racetracks was extended through 2033 under legislation approved by the New York state legislature on February 13, 2008. The new authorization provided $105 million in direct state aid and forgave millions more in state loans to NYRA. The association also gave up its claim to ownership of the land on which the three racetracks are situated. In return, the state gained expanded oversight responsibility. The state comptroller won the power to audit NYRA\'s books. The conversion of NYRA from a non-profit association to a not-for-profit corporation also gave the state attorney general enhanced oversight authority. In addition, the state now appoints 11 of the corporation\'s 25 directors. By changing from non-profit to not-for-profit status, NYRA also gained flexibility in its financial management.
I don\'t think Clueless Kay sat behind the $50 window in the clubhouse first floor skimming the first 100K that came in yesterday for Zayat and Baffy and crept away with a suitcase putting a finger over his lips saying don\'t tell the state comptroller?
My opinion is AP was not the same for \"pick your reason\" and was going to regress off the -3 but that he might have still won if not for the pressure he endured for a sustained portion of the race. It is hard on horses to run sustained like that between the rail and a horse looking him in the eye. Not to mention the bumping adds a lot of stress which we saw coming off the turn and according to jockey was happening repeatedly around the turn. If you believe the jockey (even if he can\'t count calendar days) that AP was not at his best (which I do) then it\'s also reasonable to believe that he was crowded and bumped. An overhead view would have been nice post race. Not a stretch to believe that sustained run and bumping could have cost him a TG point and the victory.
Beazley,
You can watch the race head on and from other views. They are all over the internet.
The bumping was as real as the boogey man and the loch ness monster.
As for being \"looked in the eye\", TGJB sort of hinted at this in his post, but said \"another day\". I don\'t doubt that being hooked by Frosted took something out of the horse. But since when in this horse\'s PPs does Frosted have the high cruising speed that it would have taken in prior races to sidle up alongside AP. Watch the replay, Lezcano didn\'t exactly whip his horse to go on a suicidal attack. He asked for some speed, but the \"A game\" of AP would normally have been too quick for Frosted to make that move. His high cruising speed that previously had broken the backs of other contenders, wasn\'t there.
Sort of chicken and egg. He lost because he got hooked early. Or he got hooked early because he wasn\'t the same horse (bounced or regressed)
Rob
That last part is pretty much it. And not just for this race.
Point Given won the Haskell in 2001 too....only 20 days prior to the Travers. Maybe Baffert shipped straight to Saratoga that year.
Zayat\'s not making $50m. The horse was sold in Dec/Jan for $13m or thereabouts.
Why are so many upset that the horse lost? My gosh, he has 3 months left in a very short career. Had they won everyone crying now would be singing a different tune. They gave it a shot to allow him to fully show his potential. It didn\'t work out. No need to be upset.
Or maybe he wasn\'t coming off a huge effort.
Or maybe he didn\'t run on an, arguably, deadish rail with a rival jockey doing his best to keep him pinned to it.
Not enough respect being given to the possibility that Keen Ice was on the better part of the track.
Even so, beaten less than 1L, would not have taken much to get home on top, AP was done and could , as they say, find no more.
Seen the best get beat, and look much worse than AP did in defeat.
I personally think it was a certain TV handicapper that after 7 races finally got on board. The bad karma there alone was like an extra 10 lbs.
That rail killed Private Zone. Otherwise neg 3 would have neg 6.
metroj Wrote:
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> Or maybe he didn\'t run on an, arguably, deadish
> rail with a rival jockey doing his best to keep
> him pinned to it.
Interesting
Didn\'t watch the day, but there looks to be some evidence for that
T Severini Wrote:
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> metroj Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Or maybe he didn\'t run on an, arguably, deadish
> > rail with a rival jockey doing his best to keep
> > him pinned to it.
>
> Interesting
>
> Didn\'t watch the day, but there looks to be some
> evidence for that
I have a feeling Jerry doesn\'t think so, but not too sure ;-)
I did say arguably.
Just seemed outside paths overall better for the day, even loose on the lead types seemed to stay several paths off on the backstretch.
Verrazano wasn\'t the same in the Travers as the Haskell either.
And Baffert isn\'t the same in the Adirondacks lately as he is in the Haskell or as good as he was in the early part of the century at Saratoga.
Boscar Obarra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> T Severini Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > metroj Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Or maybe he didn\'t run on an, arguably,
> deadish
> > > rail with a rival jockey doing his best to
> keep
> > > him pinned to it.
> >
> > Interesting
> >
> > Didn\'t watch the day, but there looks to be
> some
> > evidence for that
>
>
> I have a feeling Jerry doesn\'t think so, but not
> too sure ;-)
Yeah...he\'s adamant a regression altered the order.
I\'ll have to look at the films, but on the Chart a few low odds favorites appeared to back up from the rail, excepting Private Zone. If it was heavy, Keen Ice was there at times and I believe Jerry\'s recommendation got on it some too.
With reports of all the water they laid down and a pretty clear slow, fast, slow track it would not be surprising if path became variable too.
It might also explain, Baffert and Espinoza believing AP\'s action wasn\'t as effortless. Still think order of finish influenced their beliefs. What was said about Jockeys and size five hats?
JB,
Performance Beyer has Runhappy faster than Private Zone by 1.25 points after weight adj(neg -3.25 vs neg -2)
1. Did you tie the 7f times to make the figs for the 3 races or project off all the horses in each race?
2. Could you post these races after you do them.
Thanks!
Mike
We will post the seminar race later today or tomorrow.
You always use the horses, every day at every track, to make figures. There is no other way to do it. If you\'re asking whether the track changed speed, I took about 3 off the Ballerina relative to the day, added a little to the Kings Bishop. It was pretty straightforward. Runhappy gets a big figure, not as big as PZ. We\'re going to review the Ellis race.
Thanks. Find it interesting as you will have PZ faster than Runhappy, everyone else the other way.
Ellis TG fig for Runhappy lined up very close to Rags and Beyer.
If you assume the track stayed the same speed-- which as discussed here many times Ragozin\'s acolytes do, based on zero science-- you\'re going to have a problem with that part of the day, not just those two races. I wouldn\'t have done that even without knowing about the uneven watering, I assume as little as possible, and never assume dirt or synthetics stay the same. Grass is a different story.
Would also point out that PZ was carrying 7 pounds more than R, which won\'t show up in some figures.
True, I adjusted Beyer for 7 lbs. Pace fig guys have Runhappy even faster than clock difference after weight adj. The most intriguing figs for me will be Rags.
Interesting tidbit along Franks note, was my friend at SPA said there were puddles around the whole crown/outer part before Travers.Has photos of AP going to gate very washy.
Mike,
Washy?
No. Unless he was stressed over the dead rail?
Rob
Rob,
Pre derby AP was washy and at Haskell he had kidney sweats. Wears ear plugs for a reason, so washy not surprising and did not stop him from winning before.
Mike
Mike,
Forget it. Was a joke. since I have to explain it, it means it was a bad one.
Just a little batty to keep reading the board and having people post \"dead rail\" crap. Private Zone whistled from the front. The longshot who ran second in the King\'s bishop was on the rail all the way.
the \"favorites\" that ran poorly on the inside were the Casse 5-2 shot who was 20 points below the Beyer par for a winning fig for that class and had close to no shot if ANY of the well bred firsters could run and StopShoppingMaria who had exactly one figure that made her the favorite and was WAY LESS LIKELY to win than either the winner or Untapable based on their TG sheets.
no dead rail.
Rob
Rob,
I knew you were joking but surprised with all the theories about dead rails, pinned inside,trainers record at SPA vs Monmouth et al that no one offered wash out as reason AP lost
Mike
miff Wrote:
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> Rob,
>
> I knew you were joking but surprised with all the
> theories about dead rails, pinned inside,trainers
> record at SPA vs Monmouth et al that no one
> offered wash out as reason AP lost
>
> Mike
How about this for a theory...He\'s a good horse, but not a great one.
He\'s got two -3\'s on his sheet. How impressive was that last -3 anyway, with Keen Ice quickly getting to him in the Haskell? AP was geared down for the stretch correct? Does that explain it? If that race goes another eighth you think AP hangs on? Watch it again just for grins.
Haskell (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TykbH5j9nZI)
Really how impressive is the Slop Trot at Pimlico? Right to the front on the slop. Seriously, just how good is the 2nd place horse? Just how impressive was the third fraction in 1:11 and change? AP surely liked it. How many times have we seen a front end slop trot? Watch it again just for yukes.
Preakness (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30nMVd8Prvs)
What about the Belmont?
Right to the front again. No early pressure. Visually it looked impressive with good late fractions, but it was a scalding track and got discounted. AP got to trot around again, unpressured.
Now the Travers.
You can compare APs action here and in the Haskell. The AP camp says he didn\'t look right? What do you think? To my eye the only discernable difference is Espinoza has to ask AP to get down on his belly and it\'s a battle, because those were fast fractions.
Anyway, AP tries the Speed Pop again. Why not, he\'s worked the trick with this group before, but this time there\'s a good horse that is not going to let him just coast around with his ears pricked like in the other races. This isn\'t Competitive Edge taking a lead to be run down. This time its one of the faster horses in the crop and he\'s gonna test AP from outside. AP gets engaged and you don\'t see the happy ears. Not at all. He\'s in a battle now for the first time since the Kentucky Derby. This ain\'t Sloppy Pimlico and this ain\'t Monmouth. Today its a fair track with a top horse right on him. AP has to reach deep down to put Frosted away and then Keen Ice picks up the pieces.
Here it is again if you want to watch it for chuckles.
Travers (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJPx0IJHSXw)
Now, could the track have played a role? Obviously, the track always plays a role. Tgraph has points added and shaved every which way for the Travers card. But if you acknowledge that tracks can change speeds, why couldn\'t they change speeds outer rail to inner rail and even near turn to far turn? Think about that.
And I\'ll leave you with one other thought, because I don\'t know the answer to it. Do the watering trucks use pumps to maintain constant pressure for uniformity or are they merely filled and use gravity and their volume to discharge from the watering valves? If so, wouldn\'t they cover differently as the pressure lessens? That might be significant.
That was a funky track.
That was a general question for anyone that can clear it up, but Miff I have a question for you, what do you think about the prospects for a dead rail after viewing the Travers video above? Did you note all the moisture near the outer rail?
T Severini Wrote:
> Here it is again if you want to watch it for
> chuckles.
>
> Travers
Double entendre?
If you were a runner, you would know.