Beaten 2 lengths by AP. Ran two lengths farther than AP.
Ha Iron,
Still Fraud-sted for now 2-11. Middle half 46 change took AP and him out or Bafferts 2-30 record, ahem. Would have been great battle late if Lezcano didn\'t take it to AP early on.Frosted ran a big race!
Mike
Really, pace? They went 48. They\'re supposed to run fast for SOME of the race.
The point wasn\'t necessarily that Baffert\'s horses run bad at Sar, it was that they don\'t generally run as well as they do at Mth, which I made clear in the seminar. Best guess is the figure AP gets is about what he ran in the two races before the Haskell. Which was perfectly reasonable going in, and at which level he could possibly get beat.
Competition at Monmouth not even close to that at SPA top level, easier to run fast vs Little Sisters Of the Poor.
You don\'t think the 26.5 final q is sub par? by a lot...
And thats the winner, AP more like 27, awful.
EDIT came home in 26.4 not 27, still slow, but not abysmal.
Yes.Travers often comes up slow vs all other dirt races. Beyer and other fig makers scratch their heads some years,the Travers comes up so slow raw.
What\'s the relevance? If they went a second slower to there, they would go a second faster from there.
Miff, please. A) he ran at Mth against the horse that beat him at Sar, and B) the pace was a lot hotter there.
Don\'t have a clue what you are referencing
Your post at 5:39.
Frosted ran fine.
Race slow unless a large breakout between 1 and 2 turn races
106 Beyer for keen ice seems a bit generous.
Pharaoh was in trouble approaching turn, Espinoza scrubbing on him even harder there than the derby run.
Actually thought horse ran better than expected from that point on. Frosted looked to have had him on turn.
Texas red - despicable
Upstart - not despicable, but not good. Saved ground and had zero run. Just not the same horse anymore.
Rob
Need some of that \"smoke\" bro.No idea what you are looking at.
https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,97447,97450#msg-97450
At that.
Of course Keen Ice would have won had Frosted/AP not throw down with 6f left to run.AP did not run as well as usual while under pressure today.
I think AP did about the same thing in the Derby, Belmont, and Travers. the Preakness was a bit slower due to the fast pace. the Haskell was better, his best race (9f is perfect). the Belmont was run over one of the quickest surfaces I have ever seen there & the adjusted pace was so slow that the race played nothing like a mile and a half race.
I\'ll be surprised if the horse runs in the BC Classic.
If you ignore the fact that AP had to deal with a much faster pace at Mth and still beat Keen Ice, but lost to him here, that makes perfect sense.
AP lost because he wasn\'t the same horse today that he was at Mth. Doesn\'t mean he\'s not great, doesn\'t mean he won\'t run a neg 3 next time. Call it a bounce, call it Sar vs. Mth, call it just going back to the race he usually runs. But it had zero to do with pace, which was softer today than when he ran the neg 3 last time.
Does anyone think that saving ground on the dirt at Saratoga today was advantageous? I\'ll hang up and listen.
When was the last Travers with a fast final time?
Answer is there hasn\'t been one in over 20 years.
That race is always run in 2:01 and change or slower.
Give the mediocre plodder/improving slug some credit.
Frosted did the dirty work but Keen Ice solid.
There isn\'t a REMOTE chance that KI runs down Frosted or AP if they don\'t run that middle contested half, simple cause and effect in a race. Monmouth pace and performance by AP another story on a different day.
The assertion board is back. We\'re giving excuses to a 1/5 shot who gets away with a 48 half in a GI on dirt.
You have to have little knowledge of racing to think that AP and Frosted get the last quarter in 26.49 without be gassed from the middle half.Thats not an assertion it\'s racing knowledge.
Not excusing AP, explaining what obviously happened.
wow, what an ego
Not at all Touch, that\'s elementary to anyone with a clue.
I\'ll throw this out, then done for the night. Can you even process the concept that if he goes a second slower early, he goes a second faster later, and ends up with the same time? That KI would be a second closer, and end up with his same time? There are extreme pace scenarios that affect outcomes. For top stake horses this wasn\'t even close to being one.
No idea what I am looking at?
With regards to what?
Rob
Mike
Middle half contested - sure.
First half horribly slow on a track they went 1:20 flat on 90 minutes esrlier.
To me, the slow first half and the quick middle half net out, roughly (no science here, just a reasonable guess)
Pharaoh under duress on far turn. Just not very good today, relative to haskell. Gutsy in stretch IMO to hold on till late, but no punch.
Pace not a good excuse IMO.
Rob
Errr I\'ll buy you a new house if you regularly find 46 change middle halves at 10f
Rob,
Agree AP ordinary today. My point,contrary to what JB is suggesting, the winner NEVER wins if AP and Frosted don\'t throw down in the middle. They run to wire and maybe Frosted or AP wins.
Mike
I was out this afternoon, just watched the race.
JB says it all the time. They may look great galloping, they may look great in workouts. The stress of a race is when you find out how taxing previous efforts were and what the effect is. It would appear that the 3 week turn around, combined with the constant shipping, took a little starch out of AP today.
I think Baffert knew this, which is why he was so hesitant to run him. If Zayat didn\'t want to run there so badly, I\'m not so sure he runs today.
I agree with Miff a lot, but disagree here. The pace, or any part of the race where AP was contested, didn\'t have as much to do with that performance. The quick turnaround off the huge effort played a major role. They went 1.11 and change, if he didn\'t want to be hooked by Frosted then go in 1.10 and change. He couldn\'t do that.
Its easier to ship East Coast based horses around, the travel isn\'t as extreme. Shipping from a NYRA track to Monmouth/Parx/CD isn\'t the same as shipping a horse from California clear across the country.
I give AP credit for digging in down the stretch, thought he showed a lot of heart today.
Texas Red was disappointing today, that was a putrid performance.
Congrats to Keen Ice, running late is his style and if the leaders backed up makes sense that he was the one to run them down.
What now? Does he run in 4 weeks at SA, then run 5 weeks later in the BC?? Does he train up to the BC? Do they just shut him down and retire him? I can\'t see them shipping him again before the BC. Wouldn\'t be surprised if this turns out to be his last race. Its been a long year, lots of travel, fires a big shot every time. AP doesn\'t owe anybody a thing.
Your middle half of 46.6 was part of a mile in 1:35.
1:35 on that track, unless it changed drastically from 90 minutes earlier, is not fast.
Keen ice was fine.
Frosted looks distance challenged and AP wasn\'t same horse.
Upstart a \"has been\" and Texas Red despicable.
That is why keen ice won. Don\'t think a mile in 1:35 was the culprit, fast middle half notwithstanding.
Rob
3rd fraction was a quick one, but not enough that it should have fried AP IMO. I could see it cooking Frosted because that one ran a bit contrary to his style - was closer to the lead and did the dirty work on AP. But to me, AP was still empty for the drive for whatever reason. Think if he was ready for a top effort he would have had enough left. It wasn\'t that fast, they didn\'t come at him in waves, and you can\'t make excuses for him just because he had one colt next to him early. I say he bounced, and you can chalk it up to coming off a big effort off a layoff with two cross country ships on short rest or whatever. They aren\'t machines and are entitled to bounce. They\'re actually supposed to.
Makes the BC Classic more interesting IMO. Now we\'ll see if Baffert can bring him back around for one last top effort. His sheet will look pretty good by then off of this if he goes, which is good if you like him. Your odds will be better, and more people will spread in the horizontals which helps ALOT if you are still willing to forgive this one and single him.
mjellish Wrote:
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> Makes the BC Classic more interesting IMO. Now
> we\'ll see if Baffert can bring him back around for
> one last top effort. His sheet will look pretty
> good by then off of this if he goes, which is good
> if you like him. Your odds will be better, and
> more people will spread in the horizontals which
> helps ALOT if you are still willing to forgive
> this one and single him.
I\'m not sure we will see him again. Wouldn\'t surprise me one bit if he retires after this.
Let\'s not forget, his breeding rights and racing rights this year do not share an interest. And if he beats older horses in the classic that potentially helps his stud fee. If he doesn\'t it won\'t really hurt it. He\'s a triple crown winner and losing against older horses doesn\'t take that away. Everything to gain by running and nothing to lose provided he doesn\'t break down. No reason he can\'t train up to the race either.
MJ,
Contested 23.08 followed by contested 23.60(partial turn)is pretty fast at that distance. Think that had much to do with AP/Frosted crawling 26.49 final.they ran the final split some 18-20 lengths slower than the previous splits. Speaks volumes to me.
Seems that some not considering the damage contested pace does vs loose lead pace.
Mike
Miff....your an idiot!
It\'s \"you\'re\" jerkoff
horsegoer Wrote:
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> Miff....your an idiot!
And yet one more assertion.
We\'re all capable of making spelling and grammatical errors, so I don\'t usually correct, but if one is going to question another\'s intelligence, it is particularly bad form to do so with spelling and/or punctuation errors.
Idiot seems harsh.....
Maybe just wrong on the definition of hot pace on today\'s track?
Mike,
I am going to drop it. 48 first half was so weak, AP/Espinoza would have had options if the horse was on his \"A game\". Frankly should have had a quicker opening half and created distance and made frosted chase so there was no contested pace in the next half mile.
AP just wasn\'t that good today.
What about how disgusting Texas red was. Dropped way off a slow first half and did nothing but back up.
Whatever clocker u mentioned that did t like him as much was clearly \"on point\". That clocker certainly was NOT mike welsch who was awful today. Hated frosted, loved upstart and Texas red. Yikes. Bunch of his other \"hot\" workout horses didn\'t Fire either. Oh well. That kind of day.
Rob
I get it. And I pay attention to pace. I\'m not saying it didn\'t matter. I\'m saying to my eye, it didn\'t matter enough. The colt was empty and I think he would have been empty regardless.
I rarely post on this board...Mike/Miff and I do not agree on this string and I have shared this with him privately...He does not need me to defend him....whether it is grammatically correct or not, this is way over the line.
Grammar is important. I downgrade posts with \"your\" for \" you are\"and \"alot\"
for \"a lot\".
I wont even go into the pain of reading \"then\" instead of \"than\".
I\'m only leaving this string up because it\'s funny. Miff is a lot of things, but an idiot is not one of them.
miff Wrote:
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> It\'s \"you\'re\" jerkoff
You\'re correct... Or you are correct!
moosepalm Wrote:
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> horsegoer Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Miff....your an idiot!
>
>
> And yet one more assertion.
>
> We\'re all capable of making spelling and
> grammatical errors, so I don\'t usually correct,
> but if one is going to question another\'s
> intelligence, it is particularly bad form to do so
> with spelling and/or punctuation errors.
I agree ...wasn\'t paying attention. Just back from town after a long day at track and drinks...I\'m an idiot...lol