https://twitter.com/hashtag/AmericanPharoah?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
the pharoah is not only winning the travers but going to put on a show for the ages. get your popcorn ready!
That is quite a bold prediction.
The bigger question I hope to see the board debate this week is whether to bet against him or not.
He appears to be unbeatable but at 1 to 9, I am always looking for a reason to bet a little to win a lot when opportunity arises.
I don\'t see a reason to bet against the horse. But Baffert\'s recent Spa record and the way Kiarin is going, along with Texas Red or Upstart as possibilities, I will have to really consider it as the week carries on and the Travers Day card is released to find a multirace play.
Others\' early thoughts?
Baffert 2-30 at SPA in stake routes since 2009 but that\'s irrelevant as none of the previous 30 were AP.
Welllll..... maybe not completely irrelevant. All of them weren\'t somebody else either. You gotta like it better that he\'s not ten for twenty if you\'re betting against him...
Baffert\'s prior record at SPA completely irrelevant as to whether AP will win or lose on Sat.
Really? No matter how big the sample? Does past record ever matter, for anyone?
Think if you filter the 30 Baffert SPA runners you won\'t find any that:
1. Was the only horse in the race to win at the distance of the race.
2. Was the only horse in the race to win with 126 lbs (3x)
3. Defeated every contender in the race
4. Came in undefeated that year with a bunch of grade 1\'s
5. Was fastest in race
6. On paper looks to be only speed.
Now if any of the prior 30 Baffert runners fit this profile, those would be relevant to me otherwise think the stat is not applicable to AP.
Given that the SPA results are borderline insane, maybe that will get AP.
Somewhere this week you will read a quote from Nick Zito on how well Frammento is doing.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Even if we assume all those things are relevant it doesn\'t mean there isn\'t something else that is also relevant. Pletchers record at GP is not the same as at CD, Baffert\'s at Mth is not the same as Sar. Obviously not the only thing to consider, but one of them, especially at the price.
If those things are not totally relevant, what do you use to handicap a race?
There is one reason to consider gambling against AP on Sat and it has nothing to do with Baffert, the horse or any stats. If you could see the mutual printouts of the Travers, for all pools, you would salivate. AP will be overweight x5 creating monstrous overlays on the remaining combinations.From a pure risk/reward prop, you almost have to use some money with AP off the ticket regardless of his credentials.There are very few occasions when the pools are as far skewed at they will be Saturday.
The odds will definitely will be incredible if you want to bet anyone else. Just like in the Belmont and every race he runs in until he\'s retired. How can anyone make a logical argument that he\'s going to lose? Did you see that work yesterday??? The only thing that beats him is a Barbaro type situation...and I hope to g-d that doesn\'t happen to any horse in a race.
Chas04 Wrote:
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> The odds will definitely will be incredible if you
> want to bet anyone else. Just like in the Belmont
> and every race he runs in until he\'s retired. How
> can anyone make a logical argument that he\'s going
> to lose? Did you see that work yesterday??? The
> only thing that beats him is a Barbaro type
> situation...and I hope to g-d that doesn\'t happen
> to any horse in a race.
I thought Firing Line gave him a run for his money. I do not know/recall the sheets of the horses in the Travers well enough, but I see him being put to the task when he races against the older horses at Keeneland. AS to the Travers, if he is softened up early, and there is a horse in the race that can run a -2 or -3, he could have a rough time of it at the finish line. I just do not know the prospective Travers field well enough.
flying back to NY reading the board, and after witnessing his work yesterday - there were many more the the 2K people reported there - he was absolutely flying. To see him inhale the other workers was pretty cool. 1:23? That\'s more than fast, and he was floating. It\'s special. Even Bob B can\'t find an excuse not to go. I\'d just enjoy this one.
See you all there Saturday.
No one to soften him up early. Check the nomination pp\'s on the race (NYRA site). That is unless Uncle Wayne has something up his sleeve.
I\'m thinking this is the last one and we are going to see something pretty special on Saturday.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Tell Secretariat and Man o war that
...and Native Dancer, and Smarty, and Rachel...
miff Wrote:
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> ... If you could see the
> mutual printouts of the Travers, for all pools,
> you would salivate. AP will be overweight x5
> creating monstrous overlays on the remaining
> combinations.
I\'m not sure this is really true. X5? Are you saying that if AP is 1/2 ($3) and some other runner is 4-1 ($10), that the pick 4 let\'s say, would be a LOT more than 3.3x the payoff?
I don\'t look too closely at p-3 p-4, but I\'m fairly sure that the DD pool does not skew all that much from fair odds. If you\'ve seen otherwise , I\'d like to hear it.
Box,
Most rolling DD pools at major venues run much closer to parlay value because of the lack of liquidity and it\'s only a two race sequence.DD pools track far closer than pick 4,5,6s
As someone who almost exclusively plays pick 4s 5s 6s, can tell you that have seen the details of these pools in NY a while back.Have seen many 3x parlay multiples when an overweight horse/horses out of sequence.Reasonable to assume AP will be way overweight,if not,5x not possible.
The \"normal\" X time multiple could well be up to 5x sans AP and all chalk in other legs,assuming full fields.Have no idea what other legs look like.
Not sure any other horse will only be 4-1 value in pick 4,6( Texas Red?)
Mike
Box / Mike,
I bet into the pick-3, pick-4 and pick-5 sequence at Monmouth with AP running there.
And I looked at the \"juicy\" will pays in the pick 3 and pick 4 that ended with the Haskell. Nobody was less than 10-1+ value in the last race and AP was almost zero value if/when he won.
MAYBE with Frosted and Texas Red running it won\'t be quite as exaggerated, but I think it will. (second choice was 5-1 or so in Haskell in win pool. Expect same in Travers)
As somebody who also plays 95% pick-3/4/5, I am sure the \"value\" will be fantastic, should he lose.
problem is he looks \"loose\" again and is training great. Personally tired of Frosted, so if i was to take one shot to beat him it would be Texas Red. Those that saw Jim Dandy and decided Frosted was undertrained and \"prepping\" and \"getting to\" Texas Red late, saw a different race than i did. What I saw was Texas Red, a confirmed closer, showing a tactical gear he hadn\'t shown before, which is VERY OFTEN an indication of a forward move in a horse\'s form. As such, maybe we see his very best on Saturday, similar to his dominating BC Juvenile performance. If we see it, MAYBE we see a horse race.
A lot of \"maybe\'s\", but I might waste/invest a few sheckels to see if I am right.
Somebody here on the forum talks about betting a deli to win a pickle. This might be the opposite. (Frank D?)
Rob
There\'s a track somewhere they call the graveyard of something. I forget...
Rob,
Texas Red was maybe a plan until seeing him gallop at SPA twice. Confirming that was some good full time eye-ballers who thought he looked better training up to the Jim Dandy(not that he looks bad though)
If the pick 4,6 sequence looks loaded with good fields, maybe a shot is in order otherwise don\'t know.After watching AP\'s sick work on Sun, a yellow streak began to appear down my back.
Mike
SPA RACES:
224
DIRT:
107
TURF:
117
FAVORITES:
71 (32 percent)
2ND CHOICES:
53 (24 percent)
TURF WIRE:
20 (17 percent)
DIRT WIRE:
28 (26 percent)
Didn\'t you just get dome telling me stats don\'t matter? History is irrelevant?
I have a good one for you in the seminar...
Anyway, you\'re right, favorites have about a one in three chance.
Anybody know where the current sports usage of the word upset comes from?
\"Anybody know where the current sports usage of the word upset comes from?\"
I\'ve read that - contrary to popular belief - it is NOT because that is the name of the only horse to ever beat Man o\' War.
BTW, in that race (pre-starting gate), the big red one was turned sideways when the wire was lifted, and he spotted Upset quite a few lengths.
Will add that 2/3 TC winners \"lost\" the Travers, although Affirmed did finish first but was DQ\'d.
Jim Dandy beat Gallant Fox in 1930 Travers. Whirlaway the only TC/Travers winner.
\"Didn\'t you just get dome telling me stats don\'t matter? History is irrelevant\"
Chisel this in stone \"Unfiltered racing stats are irrelevant, sample size notwithstanding\"
Since Baffert is 2-30 in routes at SPA, AP is a terrible bet, right?
I\'m writing a seminar, my opinions will be there.
Hypothetically, that stat wouldn\'t even make me blink if the horse I liked was 20-1. Beyond that, this is a silly argument-- you quote stats and tell me not to pay attention to stats. I guess they should stop doing batting averages, ERA, stop publishing trainer and jockey records...
Note, \"horse racing stats\" some gamblers do well using sports stats to beat that game.
Only posted current favorite stats for info.SPA being the graveyard of favorites is a wives tale. Couple of great horses defeated there eons ago and so the \"graveyard\" tale was spun.
miff Wrote:
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> Most rolling DD pools at major venues run much
> closer to parlay value because of the lack of
> liquidity and it\'s only a two race sequence.
Having tracked DD Will Pays regularly since before puberty, I can unequivocally confirm Boscar's comment that DD pools, on average, do not skew much from win odds (I've posted about this topic on more than one occasion on the board). Yes the DD pools aren't as liquid as the win pools (which are also more efficient), but liquidity is an argument for why the DD pools might not track the win odds as close as they do, which doesn't bear itself out in the evidence.
> DD pools track far closer than pick 4,5,6s
This is only true in terms of variation between individual results, not for the overall average. Results for longer sequences will naturally see more individual variation because they include more races, but the overall averages for all horizontal sequences converge pretty much where you'd expect them to based on the math (I did a study, albeit a small sample, on Pk3's, Pk4's and Pk5's in the SoCal circuit a few years back that confirmed this).
> Have seen many 3x > parlay multiples when
> an overweight horse/horses {is} out of sequence.
This can certainly happen, especially in Pick 5's and Pick 6's where the expected payout is close to twice the parlay anyway when you adjust for takeout (the fact that you're only getting hit with the takeout once in the multis). A 3x payout is not altogether uncommon in Pk5's and Pk6's and does not necessarily indicate that a heavy chalk was overbet.
If this were the case, then you'd expect to see the opposite (huge underlays) occur when such horses are part of the sequence. When I filtered the results of the study indicated above for any winning horses that were 2/5 or lower, I found that the results for the sample of sequences were, on average, pretty close to those of the overall total. They did tend to pay a bit less than the overall total, but the difference was minor, and still higher than what was expected based on the takeout-adjusted parlays in this particular study. And certainly nowhere near the type of underlays you'd expect if you were to see 3x to 5x overlays when these horses were not part of the sequence: Do Heavy Faves Get Overbet in the Multis? (https://twitter.com/Mathcapper/status/636283463688130560)
As for Rob's comment re: the Haskell, the Pick 3 paid +45.4% above the parlay, which was actually a little more than the +31.2% expected after adjusting for takeout. The Pick 4 did pay a little less than expected, but it wasn't out of the realm of normal variation (+22.1% more than the parlay vs. an expectation of +79.1%).
Not saying that a heavy \"single-type\" chalk can't be greatly overbet in the multis in any individual sequence, but on a regular basis? I'm not seeing any evidence of it.
Rocky R
Thanks Math. What is your take on what will occur, price wise,if AP is out of the pick 4 on Sat,assuming a huge pool.
I believe \" upset\" was first used in connection some Canadian Tennis match in the 1920\'s. Because of the horse of the same name its origin is often mistaken-- see Oxford Dictionary which has used it as a noun and verb.
Regarding all the discussion of pick 3s and pick 4s if AP is the lock some believe and with apologies to Steve Christ, doesn\'t that provide an opportunity to includes \"b\" and \"c\" horses with more aggression on other tickets? Also suggest you take a look at pick 4 Belmont day v. the pick 3 ending with AP- because of full fields the spread was huge.
Rez
Belmont day and travers days are apples and oranges. Pharaoh was 4/5 in the win pool and a bit higher than that in the multis.
He is going to be 1/5 or lower on Saturday. 1/5 the price. Different ball game.
Rob
Mike - wish I had some keen insight to offer, but my initial assumption is always that the multis will be bet in accordance with their win odds.
In the case of Big P, it wouldn\'t surprise me if he\'s actually overbet in the win pool vis-a-vis the Pk4, being that he\'s a once-in-a-generation TC winner that may entice the public to punch out souvenir win tickets on regardless of odds.
Either way, if he goes off at same $.10 on the dollar he did in the Haskell, the Pk4 should be solid if he\'s out of the sequence since most other horses, if not all, in that race will be double-digit odds.
fwiw
magicnight Wrote:
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> \"Anybody know where the current sports usage of
> the word upset comes from?\"
>
> I\'ve read that - contrary to popular belief - it
> is NOT because that is the name of the only horse
> to ever beat Man o\' War.
>
> BTW, in that race (pre-starting gate), the big red
> one was turned sideways when the wire was lifted,
> and he spotted Upset quite a few lengths.
>
> Will add that 2/3 TC winners \"lost\" the Travers,
> although Affirmed did finish first but was DQ\'d.
>
> Jim Dandy beat Gallant Fox in 1930 Travers.
> Whirlaway the only TC/Travers winner.
Man O War did not lose as a 3yo. His only loss came in his 2yo year and in addition to the botched start, he was giving Upset a considerable amount of weight which was compounded by the seriously delayed start (the lead pads were in the saddle for a considerable time). I am pretty sure the race was a sprint so the considerable ground given up by the off poorly was dearer.
upset (http://joeposnanski.com/upset-and-man-o-war/)
Interesting that Fraud-sted is 6-l on the ML while Texas Red is 8-1, thought they would be equal or Red the shorter price.
Upstart @ 15-1,if he runs, should attract some $$$ from sheet readers and projects a perfect inside trip with an alert break.
AP looks $2.40 in price should he win.
I guess my line is way off base. I see AP at lower than 1 to 5 likely until possibly the last minute or so and possibly coming up to 1 to 5 at post.
I also think Texas Red is likely 2nd choice but guess KM recent winners might be why Frosted listed as 2nd on m/l.
As for Upstart, I see him going off over 20-1 if he runs.
What is the minimum payoff in Ny? I am guessing $2.10 if he goes off at 1-20 (highly unlikely).
I guess my line is way off base. I see AP at lower than 1 to 5 likely until possibly the last minute or so and maybe coming up to 1 to 5 at post.
I also think Texas Red is likely 2nd choice but guess KM recent winners might be why Frosted listed as 2nd on m/l.
As for Upstart, I see him going off over 20-1 if he runs.
What is the minimum payoff in Ny? I am guessing $2.10 if he goes off at 1-20 (highly unlikely).
Fairmount,
I don\'t think you have to worry about 1-20.
I think 1-9 early, maybe 1-5 as the race goes off when the \"value players\" grab the others at what they perceive to be good prices.
Mike,
Not sure that Upstart will attract enough \"sheet readers\" money to bring him lower than his 15-1 ML. Maybe 12-1. How could anybody bet him off the Derby and Haskell? I bet him in both, at least as a \"use\" in horizontal bets. No thanks for me. (not because of the distance, the horse just isn\'t in form. I don\'t care how many more good workouts he has. He had good workouts before the Derby and Haskell as well. When they sour, they sour.
There just isn\'t a drop of speed to even entertain AP early. Could see Kent trying to be aggressive and get the stalk trip, because Kent is a notorious race rider. (amongst other things, but i won\'t cast apsersions)
Looking like a bad betting race period. (from somebody who has been betting against AP since April..........)
Rob
Rob,
Saw a little life in Upstarts last since he was coming off a long layoff. Gotta drink lots of Kool Aid to think a horse can have route bottom off 90 days at gr 1 level.If Upstart runs, think he will move forward quite a bit possibly out-tripping Fraud-sted and Texas Red.Tough read for me on Texas Red as to whether that last up close trip (for him)was a gut wrencher or indicating an improving horse.
Surrounding pick 4 sequence will dictate for me how to go.
Mike
miff Wrote:
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> Baffert\'s prior record at SPA completely
> irrelevant as to whether AP will win or lose on
> Sat.
100% correct
Mike,
Per Keith D. Texas Red\'s last being close up was all on brother Kent sensing crawling pace by Japan, hardly gut wrenching as he galloped out another 1/8 after very strongly and your boy Fraud-sted would not have gone by him if they went around again.Per trainer as of last weekend Red was doing super, I\'ve heard the same conflicting training reports on Red since that you mentioned the other day.
I said it here before Upstart needs a trainer change Violette clueless with this one IMHO, mismanaged from GO. If Upstart with a rail trip moves even a little forward off the Haskell that will be the value in verticals with the 5th choice being 2nd or 3rd.
AP, Red, Fraud, Keen Ice and Upstart in that order is how I see the wagering.Smart Transition may even push Upstart for the 5th spot, he may very well be 20/1.
I\'m on my way back to civilization tomorrow unless my Travers seats fetch the 3K for 2 in section D or 2K for 2 in L. If so I may become a regular at Belterra!
Not likely, back to the back yard on Friday.
FrankD.
Hi Frank,
Same feel on the race.Thinking of driving up Friday just to attend Chris Kay\'s Red Jacket ceremony :) f-king idiot.
Mike
Ok frank.
I will bite. How was upstart mismanaged?
Raced the three preps in Florida. Ran well in all 3. Gets a mulligan for the race he won and got DQed as rhe track was a nightmare that day. Horridly slow.
Got good spacing into the derby. As a sheets guy u can\'t complain about that.
Didn\'t run a step in the derby.
Ran so bad in the derby can\'t blame the distance. (Despitethe contrary postings here by many)
Could have tried preakness or belmont but decided races in Florida may have put him over top and rested for Haskell and Travers, which u do, if u believe u have a runner.
I think he was awful in the haskell, but have heard contra opinion by mike, so maybe not as bad as I think. Maybe.
Where are the mistakes?
Rob
Rob,
You have me bored in Cincinnati !
Let\'s go back to day 1 breaking his maiden and coming back 9 days later. Another big number in the Champagne then right back in BC 27 days later shipping cross country. So now we have a 2yr old running 2 potential knock out numbers for a young horse running 4 times in 10 weeks. Does he take a break? No he is cranked up to run another effort in the Holy Bull on January 24th of his 3yr old season.
The next 2 in FL may be circumstance more than trainer mismanagement. Gulf strip played heavy this winter and both FOY & FL Derby days had heavy winds to factor in. Both were very hard races on him,the bottom line is the horse was spent by the end of March.
OK Derby fever, lets go, lots of really good horses run clunkers at CHD and came back for solid campaigns. The 16 hole didn\'t help matters! 90 days off, going in the Jim Dandy, nope let\'s go to the shore last minute, that\'s it want no part of AP, no Travers it\'s PA Derby, wait a minute let\'s take a shot we drew the rail again!!!
I\'ll rest my case on how he has been handled and did not wager a nickel on him in either Derby or Haskell. However as a kool aide drinker at 20/1 in an other wise non betable race vertically he provides some value in tris and supers as a likely 5th choice.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Frank,
Since it isnt really relevant to what I bet on Saturday, we will agree to disagree.
Different reads of the same horses is part of what makes the game complex and intriguing.
Not that it makes me right, but TGJB talked about upstart having the best sheet of any 2 year old in years, including rachel.
Not that it makes u right, but the horrid derby and weak haskell support your view.
Rob
Frank have never been bored in Cincinnati, yet have to comment on your microwave handicapping approach/analysis with the 3yo Upstart! You write that after earning about a half a million in four juvenile efforts the horse needs a break. No argument from anyone. The Flatter colt got nearly a hundred days off... (a strong Ky. derby \'cappin tenet, fwiw). Blame the trainer. baloney.
Then derby fever!! Really Frank, finishing second in the florida derby, fast, accomplished, never off the board, averaging some $140K a heat and bred long on long! If the owners/connections do not get derby fever they have no pulse.
The only redeeming positive from this post Frank is that you have taken the wrong side of the argument, and out-articulated another poster on the correct side of the debate! Apparently, the power of panache trumps the prattle in parenthesis!
Lastly, sincerely appreciate both your efforts to put your collective handles on this sophomore prospect. Yet reluctant (not that either of you care) to give you much more than a passing grade for your efforts. I suspect others would grade you higher, but since Upstart is a relatively well known individual, I affirm my opinion by your remarkable omissions.
There is no mention in either opinion about the shins when he went to the Wootens, taking ten months to graduate, double the average. No mention of the early year infection in either posts, yet it was front page news! Took the trainer (assertion: he is top shelf) and some of the top vets in the world three weeks to IDENTIFY the virus!! Finally, the bill payer for this forum who trades data for dollars, successfully converted the former into the latter, to a previous customer and very solid players\' in this sport. Not to bust your chumps gentleman, just seemed a bit quick cooked capping. bbb
You deserve everything you get here, and will get.
He asked for it:
BBB,
Perhaps you should consider changing your screen name, something to reflect your countless assertions that you continue to try and pass off as factual in all their pomp and circumstance?
The Hans Christian Andersen tale of The Emperor\'s New Clothes immediately comes to mind. For those whom are unfamiliar or haven\'t read it since childhood please read below.
Plot[edit]
A vain Emperor who cares about nothing except wearing and displaying clothes hires two swindlers who promise him the finest, best suit of clothes from a fabric invisible to anyone who is unfit for his position or \"hopelessly stupid\". The Emperor\'s ministers cannot see the clothing themselves, but pretend that they can for fear of appearing unfit for their positions and the Emperor does the same. Finally the swindlers report that the suit is finished, they mime dressing him and the Emperor marches in procession before his subjects. The townsfolk play along with the pretense, not wanting to appear unfit for their positions or stupid. Then a child in the crowd, too young to understand the desirability of keeping up the pretense, blurts out that the Emperor is wearing nothing at all and the cry is taken up by others. The Emperor cringes, suspects the assertion is true, but continues the procession.
Frank D.
BBB,
I thought I knew u, now I am sure I do. I remember u clearly now. U were the kid whose lunch money I took every day through high school. U sat in the back of the room, picking your nose, and turning away any time a pretty girl walked into the room.
But u hoped back then that someday the Internet would be invented, so u could anonymously post arrogant assertions, making believe you are smarter than everybody else. And people would be impressed. Your hopes ALMOST came true. All except the the people being impressed part.
I speak for all microwave handicappers thorough out the world, when I say we can only hope to be as smart and brilliant as you are.....
Not.
Rob