The clouds have broken and CD is in the midst of a deluge.
Who moves on the slop?
I\'m looking for someone that might move up right now. I\'m also looking at the charts for sloppy tracks at CD to see if any biases usually develop.
My old man factored Imperialism way up on a sloppy surface. I\'m not sure why, though he did win a race over one is slowish raw time.
I don\'t see anything special in the past performances that would make me get \"on\" or \"off\" anyone. Obviously, these conditions are going to be factor, I just have no idea how to take advantage of it.
I mainly used The Cliff\'s Edge and Castledale, but I saved with Read the Footenotes. The latter has several \"?\"s, but at the price I had to save a little.
Good luck all and come home safe!
WELL WHAT DO YOU KNOW, THE FASTEST HORSE BY FAR WON IT. HOW DOES THAT GO 0-2-???
Congrarts to you, and all who took this horse, congrats to the connections, i am happy for all. He won fairly eassily. nice pick....See ya in B\'more
he liked the water, many, many others ran too bad for the track not to have been a major factor.The time was slow and I cant\' imagine how jb will come up with a # for this race.
The track was heavy by the time the race was run. That tends to validate the top two were not skip away types. They were much the best.
Jerry\'s figures will reign. Its a tough one, but no one is better suited to calculate a figure on such a day.
I need to review the chart before I can say someone didn\'t fire.
MO you\'re Lion Heart conviction was respected by me from the beginning despite all the bad mouthing. I bad mouthed him cause I knew he was the horse to fear.
Good Selection. I think my old man had the tri, I told him how much I liked Smarty and he came up with the higher priced horses.
Post Edited (05-01-04 19:03)
Yeah, this is gonna be a beaut-- flood, only 2 turn dirt race, 2 hours between races, lots of work done on the track, 2/3 of the field doesn\'t fire.
Ragozin will tie it to the surrounding races and Oaks day.
I don\'t make numbers but if that\'s how rag\'s does it, then you can their sheets for wall paper
ctc,
At this point I wish I knew your old man - the superfecta looked pretty clean through Limehouse unitl Imperialism ran on. I tossed him early on. Ouch.
My old man is the smartest man I know. Unlike me he doesn\'t have as big a mouth so I don\'t always know what he factors.
lol
I wish I\'d put Imperialism in. I cut back on my Trifecta bets I did not key Sword in second. I cashed the race at 10-1 which is not fantastic considering.
If anyone doesn\'t think there\'s a GOD above or somewhere, then perhaps one should reconsider after watching the skies open again at CD.
Here we have Roy Chapman playing Paul Mellon and Francis Genter all over again.
This one was in the books from the start.
Congratulations to CTC and everyone else who made $$$$ today. You all worked hard and were rewarded if you stuck by your guns.
As for the rest of us, it\'s back to work. Two weeks goes quickly and I can\'t wait to take a stand against the top 2....except of course if GOD sends another cold front through Baltimore at around 5PM on the 15th.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I have to admit, I was moved by the Smarty Jones story. It could be a movie waiting to happen, but with Seabiscuit having been made I\'m not sure theres a market for another horse movie right now.
Now I\'m hooked on this horse and I know he\'ll get beat down the road. At least history says he will...lol But the poignancy of his story intrigued me the more I learned about the horse. I\'ve never been happier for those winning a Derby. They had scores of offers to sell this horse or sell a portion of him. Old man Chapman said \"I don\'t need a partner, my wife\'s my partner\". I watched a lot of Derby\'s and this one got me wrapped up in a ball.
I didn\'t have a huge score but it feels as good as winning 20K.
Smarty is a feel good horse and its a feel good story.
The Smart bomb dropped...lol
They get smarter as we get older. Trust me.
TGJB,
On instinct, I would just say that Smarty Jones paired and work from there. Given the track conditions, it makes sense that a lot of horse would not fire.
Cashing over $65 on exactas should have been easier than we made it. It looked strong that speed horses would clear easily and the numbers were certainly there for us to see. I hoped for Wimbleton (scratched) third as I said earlier and did not have Imperialism. It was a great race and some decent money with the two. Footnotes and Cliff\'s Edge were disappointing.
Thanks Chuckles. I kept looking for a horse that could beat Lion Heart and Smarty was the only horse faster on the TG figs, but I was sure he\'d 0-2-X. So I bet $100 win and place on Lion Heart and put 10 win, $50 to show and $2 reverse exacta wheel on Pro Prado. And a $3 exacta box LH/PP. Made $110 on the race due to a rediculously high place payoff on LH.
(And I think I was a lot closer on predicting Lion Heart\'s post time odds than most.)LOL
Congrats to all, especiall SJ connections. 10% of 5 million would come in handy right about now.
Fortunately for Jerry there were two races after the Derby and I think he\'ll produce a well contemplated number.
If he wants our help I\'m sure he\'ll ask for it.
lol
Hope u cashed Knox. I like that nick...lol