Gentlemen
Theory or Anti-Theory:
Rest is good.
Horses that run substantial new tops bounce.
Look for value and odds.
Is the Kentucky Derby different?
Read The Footnotes is rested, fast, comes in off an excusable non-effort and will be about 15-1.
The way I see it Lion Heart is nothing more than an odds play at 8-1, Smarty Jones and The Cliff\'s Edge offer no value at 5-1, and if Tapit is the 2nd or 3rd betting choice, he also offers no value.
The real question becomes how to fill out you exotics.
Your comments are welcome.
Thank You
cozzene
What about \"Too fast as a 2 year old\"?
RTF peaked way too soon with the climax coming in the FOY when he and Second of June dueled one another to the sidelines. You don\'t like to come into the derby off of \"sick leave\". He won\'t be ready.
Derby Thoughts
The Beyer figures for the Wood Memorial and Florida Derby are suspect. I believe both races were faster than the figures indicate.
I think Lion Heart is the best horse in the race. Unfortunately, he has backed up in the stretch in his last 2 races (shorter) and he\'s likely to face a few mid race and/or late challenges here from quality horses. His pedigree doesn\'t suggest he will like 10 furlongs. I can\'t see him getting the 10 furlongs unless he somehow gets away very easy early or all the quality closers get bad trips or don\'t fire.
I think Smarty Jones is very similar to Lion Heart. He\'s undefeated and can rate behind horses OK, but his pedigree and stretch performances make him suspect going 10 furlongs after sustaining several challenges. He has also never faced the highest quality horses.
Read the Footnotes has the single best performance of the year. However, he\'s been a little in and out, has a suspect pedigree, is coming off a bad performance and has been out for 7 weeks.
I can\'t take any of above 3 as the favorite (or close) because of the distance and other questions. I would not be surprised if RTF runs a big race and wins easy, but I would need some sort of price before betting him because there\'s just too many question marks
The Cliff\'s Edge ran a very big race in the Blue Grass. It was a big lifetime top of the sort that horses sometimes don\'t run back to. However, 3YOs in the spring often improve rapidly and hold their form for awhile. His previous biggest figure was a 101 in November which translates to a 107 with normal development. Not too far off that top, but none of his other races are in that range. I normally like an extra few ticks on the tote board when I am less than convinced a horse can run back to his recent effort. Plus, his trip in the Blue Grass was kind of easy for a deep closer. I can\'t take him in the 4 -1/ 5-1 range, but higher than that he starts getting interesting.
Tapit was a monster in his 2YO Laurel race. That Beyer figure of a 98 handily in his second start translates to a 104 handily with normal improvement heading into the Wood. I think the Wood Memorial Beyer figure is suspect at 98. That seems low to me based on the horses in that race. It could have been as high at 102. I think he is set for a lifetime top and I think he is very likely to run well. Let\'s face it Dickenson is second to God. It\'s hard to take him as the 4-1 / 5-1 favorite in such a wide open race when you are projecting a big top just to get it done, but I think a top is coming.
Castle Dale will probably be overlooked because the 103 figure is below some of the others and he was such an upset winner in the Santa Anita Derby. I don\'t think he\'s that far off these better horses. I thought Rock Hard Ten might develop into the best 3yo horse in the country heading into the SA Derby. (I loved his allowance win) I played him that day at 3-1 and Castle Dale beat him. RHT was the better horse (trip wise), but this one still beat him and he has a terrific trainer. I think he\'s a bit of a threat to move foward some more. He\'s low probability, but he may be a big price.
Friends Lake\'s race in the Florida Derby is probably better than it looks. He\'s coming off a little layoff and I don\'t like that for the Derby. He may be underrated but you need a price.
Imperialism ran reasonably well in his last 3 starts but will have to improve some more. Need a good price.
Borrego is improving and not that far off the top. His 105 in the last race was a kind of easy trip for a closer. He will have to improve further. Need a good price.
Master David had an easier trip than Tapit and couldn\'t beat him. I\'m expecting him to improve, but I\'m expecting Tapit to improve more. Need a good price.
Quintons Gold Rush\'s races in CA are better than they look. He had some tough trips. He was a big overlay in his last race. He\'s better than he looks, but he\'s suspect at 10F under pressure and will have to improve.
Song of the Sword will have to improve. Need a good price.
Pollards Vision got away easy last time out. Is improving. Suspect pedigree for 10F. Need a price
Pro Prado will have to improve. Need a good price.
I can\'t take Birdstone off the layoff and bad race.
Limehouse is a notch below these so far and is also suspect at 10F.
Action This Day started the season off like he was going to improve sharply through the spring, but has been a disaster since. I can\'t take him.
Minister Eric will have to improve.
Post Edited (05-01-04 13:44)
Speed and presser types have been winning so far at CD. Not sure if it\'s a bias yet, but if so it may improve the chances of Smarty and Lion Hearted to get 10F if it continues as the track dries out.
The track is a mess. The race is even more wide open than ever now!